Blazer Bowl Picks

**50cent** · 12-18-09, 08:18 PM

nice card good luck...

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-18-09, 08:37 PM

I have no idea where you came up with Fresno State-Wyoming under 55, but I hiope the weather was not a consideration. It is going to be beautiful in San Diego tomorrow. Wyoming gives up over 27 points a game. Fresno gives up over 26, and that includes a shutout of FCS Tennessee Tech. Fresno State is averaging nearly 30points/game. With Wyomings #95 running defense, the unders are not the play here. Pass.

USC is a very dangerous play. You are giving 9.5 points and taking a team that may not even show up, and went 3-9 ATS when they did show up. That is a very risky wager.

Miami, LSU and TCU look solid. BYU and Tennessee are a stretch. A total pass on your total plays, especially the under on the Air Force-Houston game, which may go over by halftime. GL.

**daneblazer** · 12-18-09, 08:56 PM

thanks for your vote of confidence. We'll see. I must say of all the games the USC is the one I'm least confident on. Since you are so into rankings you should know that Air Force has a top ranked passing defense and the line is inflated...but pick and choose your stats as you wish

**komatsu** · 12-19-09, 12:56 PM

Is Wymong on the side a play? It was posted later as a Blazer play. Thanks

**daneblazer** · 12-19-09, 01:46 PM

If I had to choose a side on that game, it'd be Wyoming...but I don't have anything on it other than them in my ats pickem pool.

**BarkingToad** · 12-20-09, 04:20 AM

[quote=BigdaddyQH;2776133]I have no idea where you came up with Fresno State-Wyoming under 55, but I hiope the weather was not a consideration. It is going to be beautiful in San Diego tomorrow. Wyoming gives up over 27 points a game. Fresno gives up over 26, and that includes a shutout of FCS Tennessee Tech. Fresno State is averaging nearly 30points/game. With Wyomings #95 running defense, the unders are not the play here. Pass.

Good thing you got that late field goal to get your over 55. While you handicapped the weather being beautiful in San Diego for over, the New Mexico Bowl is played in Albuqueque where it was a little over 40 degrees and high elevation.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-20-09, 11:16 AM

Yes, but I was referring to rain, not tempature. And the game did go over. As a matter of fact, both games went over yesterday, not shocking to see in these throw away bowl games. Now I do not wager on many bowl games going in. I made my money (and lots of it) during the regular season when games were a lot easier to 'cap. Notice I said that "the unders are not the play here. Pass." The sooner many of you learn that many times, the best wager is no wager at all, the sooner you will see an increase in your overall wagering performances. I've been doing this for longer than a lot of people have been watching football in here, and I was fortunate to learn this game from the books point of view, as well as the successful gamblers point of view. The books point of view is rather simple most of the time. First, the more games you wager on, the more chance you have of losing overall, because the laws of probability state that you will creep closer to the 50% mark when you wager a lot, and 50% makes money for the books. This is why I strongly suggest quality over quantity. Wager more money on fewer picks. The bowl season has so many more intangables than the regular season that this rule should stand out during this time. GL for the rest of the bowl season.

**daneblazer** · 12-23-09, 03:50 PM

^ An over is an over but it just could have easily gone under. A few balls had to bounce the right way on the last drive for it to go over.

Adding SMU +13 (bodog)

**daneblazer** · 12-23-09, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

First, the more games you wager on, the more chance you have of losing overall, because the laws of probability state that you will creep closer to the 50% mark when you wager a lot, and 50% makes money for the books.

I get what you are saying, but based on that logic, long term gamblers would lose. Also based on that logic, if you are a losing bettor, you should bet more because your laws of probability have you edging closer to 50%. This is also a little different than going down an entire NFL card in a week betting every game. These bowl games are widely spread out not clumped together.