Regul8er's 2009-10 BOWL Thread

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-18-09, 11:49 AM

O.K. Let's see your picks. The lines have been out for quite some time now. Some have moved a lot. Some have not moved at all. Looking forward to seeing your picks.

**Regul8er** · 12-19-09, 09:42 AM

NEW MEXICO BOWL: I'm on FRESNO ST BULLDOGS (-10, -110) Risking $110 to Win $100

I was ready to take Fresno St earlier this week at -12.5, but patiently waited, and got the line down 2.5 points. Not sure why the line is dropping here, Wyoming may be the worst team that qualified to play in a bowl. When I look at their schedule, their 6 wins came at the hands of I-AA Weber St, 5 win Florida Atlantic and UNLV, 4 win San Diego St, 3 win Colorado St and 1 win New Mexico. Not counting the New Mexico game, they beat those opponents by a total of 16 points, very unimpressive. Not to mention, in their 6 losses, they only scored 30 points (3 of them goose eggs). It's not Fresno's wins that have impressed me, it's actually their losses. They lost in OT at Wisconsin, by 8 to Big East Champ Cincinnati, and by 17 to Boise State (which was 7 very late in the game).

When looking at my spreadsheet, I am really putting a major emphasis on the part highlighted in green from row 57 to 65. Before asking questions, read it over a few times, and understand that the numbers are calculations based on yardages per game listed above. I have tried to neutralize outliers and focus on teams ranked between 21-99 in offensive and defensive passing and rushing. For example, a game against Air Force could over inflate your defensive passing ranking and deflate you defensive rushing ranking.

With that said, both teams are fairly even in offensive and defensive passing yardage. I still give an edge to Fresno having a more seasoned QB in Ryan Colburn who has been in the national spotlight on many occasions as opposed to Wyoming's Freshman QB who has never played on national TV. The difference is Fresno averages over 100 yards more on the ground offensively. But at the same token, Fresno gives up 40 more yards on the ground per game defensively. This doesn't worry me. I understand Wyoming will get big chunks of yards on the ground and will be moving the chains, but they will not be able to get off the field unless they force turnovers. If you look, they gave up 267 on the ground to Air Force (who is 4th in rushing yards per game) and 339 to TCU (who is 5th in rushing yards per game). Well Fresno is 7th, so you can only imagine what will happen. Something else that stands out to me is Wyoming commits 23 yards more of penalties per game. If this trends continues, then watch out. Finally, both kickers make over 90% of their field goals, both punters are top 20 in yardage per boot, and both are top 50 in kickoff and punt return yardage.

Fresno State had a -9 turnover ratio, with Wyoming having a +7 ratio. This is only thing that scares me. If Fresno State can take care of the football, this could be a blowout. If they get ahead, they should be able to run with great success, both milking the clock and building their lead.

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 12-19-09, 09:49 AM

Goodluck!

**RobbReport** · 12-19-09, 10:05 AM

good luck, i'm tailing.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-19-09, 10:14 AM

The line is dropping because Fresno State tends to play to the level of it's competition. In the past two years, Fresno State is 4-13 ATS as a favorite. A pass here.

**Regul8er** · 12-19-09, 05:08 PM

St. PETERSBURG BOWL: I'm on CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS (+3, -110) Risking $110 to Win $100

Line finally got up to +3, and I jumped all over it. I think when you look at the motivation factor, you have to give UCF the edge. UCF is excited to get a shot at a Big East school, and Rutgers has got to be disappointed with the way there season went and where they ended up. UCF gets to play in its home state, only a few hours from St. Pete, while Rutgers travels a long way, with a school that historically doesn't bring many fans to Bowl games. It will certainly have the feel of a home game for the Knights.

Rutgers is a bit of a mystery crushing South Florida and winning on the road at UConn, but getting blasted at Syracuse and squeaking out a home win against Florida Atlantic. I guess that is what you get with a freshman QB running the show, the good and the bad. Rutgers and UCF have had similar success running the ball, but UCF is among the best at stopping the run. If they can continue to do so, they will force Savage into throwing situations, and the pass rush has been tremendous all year.

UCF has gained slightly more yardage through the air, and Rutgers has been a bit better at stopping the pass. I believe Savage is going to a tremednous QB in the Big East, but were still talking about a freshman. Brett Hodges for UCF is a senior, who backed up for Wake Forest for three years. Hodges has been around the block and should channel energy a bit more effectively. I see a slight advantage here for UCF.

Both teams are about even in turnover ratio, both field goal kickers have similar numbers and the kickoff return game is very similar. Rutgers averages about 5 more yards per punt, but UCF averages about 5 more yards per punt return.

UCF is hungry, and will get the opportunity at getting to end their season vs a Big East opponent, which I'm sure was a goal at the start of the year.

**Regul8er** · 12-19-09, 07:29 PM

Glad to see I can still cap a game and get beat in a pretty disgusting manner! Oh man, need UCF now.

**Regul8er** · 12-19-09, 11:31 PM

Thanks for the support guys, but i'm done. I can hardly take this. I take a month off and clear my head, comeback with fantastic reads and edges and get hammered today. Have already requested my remaining 780 back. Was looking forward to bowl season but I just don't have luck. I will be on the site to play SBR points but my dys of playing real money are done. Wishin everyone a merry Christmas and much success. Take care yall

**IrishTim** · 12-20-09, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The line is dropping because Fresno State tends to play to the level of it's competition. In the past two years, Fresno State is 4-13 ATS as a favorite. A pass here.

Line really dropped because Dr. Bob released a play on Wyoming. The markets almost always follow him, just like RAS with college hoops.

**Regul8er** · 12-20-09, 11:52 PM

I know there are alot of de-gens around here, and I'm quickly seeing myself slipping into this. I keep talking myself into quitting, and I keep coming back for more action. It wouldn't be so bad if I hit maybe 45 or 50% but seriously I've probably hit about 25-30% in my last 75 or 100 games. It's one of the sickest runs of bad luck you could ever imagine trying to fathom.

It's not like I'm killing myself financially...yet! I think I have the self-control to not end up losing my house or anything crazy, but I'm genuinely starting to get worried.

I am a sport fan, absolutely love playing and watching. With gambling introduced to me, I can't even watch a game now without having a wager on it.

So I requested the $780 I mentioned above, and I was told this morning requested can't be processed until Monday. I tried to not touch the money, and sure enough I did. I made four $100 wagers today, lost ALL four of them. Miami goes 90 yards and converts 2 point conversion to kill my Tenn/Mia UNDER. We all saw Pittsburgh fu(k up my -2.5 line. I had San Fran/Philly over 41, they score 40.

Then tonight I was going to take MTSU based on my analysis, but my analysis has meant dick lately. I asked my wife to tell me Southern Miss or MTSU, she says S Miss. Short story, I'm fu(ked.

Can someone give me some serious advice here! I'm considering seeking outside help, not because my life has been screwed up, because it seems like I'm spiralling in that direction.

I don't want to keep doing this to myself, its a sickness.

**IrishTim** · 12-21-09, 12:38 AM

Whenever I feel like I'm on a bad run, I step back and get to the basics that guarantee me money long term. Don't bother breaking down games/handicapping, etc. Play every rogue number you can find, bet steam at books that let you, and go for scalps/middles when opportunities present themselves.

If you feel the need to have action, make a + money bet at Matchbook for 1 unit, then scalp back the other side live but only with .5 unit, so you'll still have a side to root for but with less exposure and a little profit for that 1/2 unit.