A number of NFL sides had strong one-sided action in the first weekend with no college games, always a dangerous situation for the books. BookMaker managed to dodge those bullets, but other less-careful books may not have.
The week started out with tricky lines for the Thursday game, with bad weather and high winds expected in Cleveland for the Browns and Steelers. The low opening total of 37 got pounded way down to 32.5 by sharp money, but then came back up a bit when the weather at game time wasn’t quite as bad as expected. Still, the game reportedly didn’t see much sharp action on the sides, with Cleveland as a 10-point home dog. The sharps moderately favored the Browns, while the public favored the Steelers, but the lines didn’t move much despite betting conditions that often dictate big sharp action and significant line movement.
On Sunday, a number of controversial lines created good enough two-way action for some books to pull through, even though they were left exposed with strong one-way action on a number of individual games.
Seattle /Houston and Washington/Oakland were the two big losers for BookMaker, with both games seeing mostly one-way action towards the side that covered. Early sharp money came in on the Texans, followed by late public money, resulting in a big loss for the books when Houston did wind up covering.
Washington also took both sharp and public action, taking BookMaker by surprise, and resulting in another loss for the books.
One side that got one-way action that didn’t cover was Dallas. The Cowboys’ struggles in December were well-publicized before the game, but the betting public backed them anyway, and sharps, including Billy Walters, sensed an overreaction on the spread. But the trend continued, burning Cowboys’ backers, and resulting in the biggest win of the weekend for the books.
Walters also lost with Denver, which took a lot of early sharp money, while the Colts saw public money later in the week as well as being a featured pick of a number of tout services.
Green Bay may have been the sharpest side of the week. Another Billy Walters side, the sharps and public both backed Green Bay, and BookMaker avoided a big loss by pushing their number to attract action on the Bears.
The Monday night game is shaping up to be another game that will be either a big winner or a loser for the books. They are seeing one-sided action on Arizona, and don’t anticipate much coming in on San Francisco by game time. A cover by the Niners will likely be a big win for the books, but a cover by the Cards will likely result in big losses.