A Texas tradition: Aggies and Longhorns on Thanksgiving Day
Throw out the stats. Forget about the trends. Don't bother with line movement. When the Aggies and Longhorns get together, only the Rivalry matters for Texas bragging rights.
Handicapping team motivation and roster management becomes extremely important during the final two weeks of the college football regular season.
On top of matchups, power ratings, injuries, and trends, you also have to be cognizant of a school’s emotional state during the closing games on the schedule. Do they have something to play for? Or is their season effectively over?
It’s also integral to assess how a head coach plans to handle his players in the waning weeks. Will he use less-tested players with an eye on next season? Will he haul his stars out of the game if they earn an early lead, to save them for a conference championship game or for bowl season?
As for myself? I plan to manage my emotional state with a whole lotta turkey and some pops from the mini-fridge when No. 3 Texas takes on Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night at College Station.
Texas at Texas A&M (+21½, 62½)
Expect both the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) and Aggies (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) to be fired up and ready to go on Thursday night when they kick off at Kyle Field.
Both schools have plenty of reasons to lay down and play dead, but my guess is the rivalry makes this one play just like any other Big 12 barnburner. Texas A&M is Texas’ biggest foe, after all, even if the Aggies have slipped from prominence in the Big 12 South in recent years.
The Longhorns have already booked their ticket to the Big 12 championship game on December 5 in Arlington, where they’ll meet Nebraska as huge chalk. Thursday night’s game against Texas A&M means nothing to Texas in real terms, except as a glorified warmup in front of a hostile crowd as it gears up for a shot at the national title.
Don’t expect the Longhorns to take it easy, though, especially on defense. Sporting the third-ranked defense in the nation (238.7 yards per game), Texas wasn’t impressed with its performance in its 51-20 win as 28 ½-point chalk against Kansas last week.
The Longhorns felt like they gave up too many big plays and long drives to Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks, even if they covered the huge spread. Last week was only the second time this season Texas allowed an opponent to put up 20 or more points.
Even if the Longhorns’ defense comes out like gangbusters, 21 ½ points is a sizable number to overcome on the road. The ironic thing is, the better it plays in the early going, the harder that could make it for Texas to cover. Mack Brown might elect to take some of his starters out of the game if the Longhorns open up a decent lead after two quarters.
That said, it’s doubtful anyone out there is capping Texas A&M to win outright, and in that lies the key to betting the spread. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their six SU wins this season (against Baylor, Iowa State, @ Texas Tech, UAB, Utah State, New Mexico), but a woeful 0-4-1 ATS in their five SU losses. That includes a brutal 65-10 defeat at Sam Bradford-less Oklahoma (-20) in Week 11, and home losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas (0-1-1 ATS).
Texas A&M’s pass defense also doesn’t match up well with Colt McCoy and Texas’ dominant air attack. The Aggies are 11th-worst in the country against the pass (259.0 YPG), and run into a quarterback in McCoy that leads the nation in completion percentage (73.0%).
Overall, the Longhorns are averaging 286.2 yards passing per game, and are second in scoring offense (42.5 PPG). Any argument touting Texas’ supposed offensive decline is unfounded. The Longhorns have scored at least 34 points in all but one of their games, and have seven 40-plus-point contests to their credit.
Texas A&M does have the No. 7 offense (459.3 YPG) in the nation led by dynamic quarterback Jarrod Johnson, but it should be at least contained by Texas’ world-beating defense. The Aggies will score their points, but they’ll be hard pressed to keep the game within three touchdowns.
The Longhorns (-35) blew out the Aggies 49-9 at Memorial Stadium last season. The win lifted Texas to 4-2 (3-3 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U) in the last six meetings between the teams, after Texas A&M pulled off a 38-30 upset as 7-point pups two years ago at Kyle Field.
Throw out the stats. Forget about the trends. Don't bother with line movement. When the Aggies and Longhorns get together, only the Rivalry matters for Texas bragging rights.
Handicapping team motivation and roster management becomes extremely important during the final two weeks of the college football regular season.
On top of matchups, power ratings, injuries, and trends, you also have to be cognizant of a school’s emotional state during the closing games on the schedule. Do they have something to play for? Or is their season effectively over?
It’s also integral to assess how a head coach plans to handle his players in the waning weeks. Will he use less-tested players with an eye on next season? Will he haul his stars out of the game if they earn an early lead, to save them for a conference championship game or for bowl season?
As for myself? I plan to manage my emotional state with a whole lotta turkey and some pops from the mini-fridge when No. 3 Texas takes on Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night at College Station.
Texas at Texas A&M (+21½, 62½)
Expect both the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) and Aggies (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) to be fired up and ready to go on Thursday night when they kick off at Kyle Field.
Both schools have plenty of reasons to lay down and play dead, but my guess is the rivalry makes this one play just like any other Big 12 barnburner. Texas A&M is Texas’ biggest foe, after all, even if the Aggies have slipped from prominence in the Big 12 South in recent years.
The Longhorns have already booked their ticket to the Big 12 championship game on December 5 in Arlington, where they’ll meet Nebraska as huge chalk. Thursday night’s game against Texas A&M means nothing to Texas in real terms, except as a glorified warmup in front of a hostile crowd as it gears up for a shot at the national title.
Don’t expect the Longhorns to take it easy, though, especially on defense. Sporting the third-ranked defense in the nation (238.7 yards per game), Texas wasn’t impressed with its performance in its 51-20 win as 28 ½-point chalk against Kansas last week.
The Longhorns felt like they gave up too many big plays and long drives to Todd Reesing and the Jayhawks, even if they covered the huge spread. Last week was only the second time this season Texas allowed an opponent to put up 20 or more points.
Even if the Longhorns’ defense comes out like gangbusters, 21 ½ points is a sizable number to overcome on the road. The ironic thing is, the better it plays in the early going, the harder that could make it for Texas to cover. Mack Brown might elect to take some of his starters out of the game if the Longhorns open up a decent lead after two quarters.
That said, it’s doubtful anyone out there is capping Texas A&M to win outright, and in that lies the key to betting the spread. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their six SU wins this season (against Baylor, Iowa State, @ Texas Tech, UAB, Utah State, New Mexico), but a woeful 0-4-1 ATS in their five SU losses. That includes a brutal 65-10 defeat at Sam Bradford-less Oklahoma (-20) in Week 11, and home losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas (0-1-1 ATS).
Texas A&M’s pass defense also doesn’t match up well with Colt McCoy and Texas’ dominant air attack. The Aggies are 11th-worst in the country against the pass (259.0 YPG), and run into a quarterback in McCoy that leads the nation in completion percentage (73.0%).
Overall, the Longhorns are averaging 286.2 yards passing per game, and are second in scoring offense (42.5 PPG). Any argument touting Texas’ supposed offensive decline is unfounded. The Longhorns have scored at least 34 points in all but one of their games, and have seven 40-plus-point contests to their credit.
Texas A&M does have the No. 7 offense (459.3 YPG) in the nation led by dynamic quarterback Jarrod Johnson, but it should be at least contained by Texas’ world-beating defense. The Aggies will score their points, but they’ll be hard pressed to keep the game within three touchdowns.
The Longhorns (-35) blew out the Aggies 49-9 at Memorial Stadium last season. The win lifted Texas to 4-2 (3-3 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U) in the last six meetings between the teams, after Texas A&M pulled off a 38-30 upset as 7-point pups two years ago at Kyle Field.