EV Week 13 Keep it simple!!!!

[eastvan09]

Year to Date
Overall: 18-26 +15.5 units

Totals: 8-3 +6.3 units
Parlays: 4-12 +12.5 units
Teasers: 2-5 -1.8 units

My week 12 thread is here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/271243-ev-week-12-spread-wealth-totals-ml-parlays.html

Week 12 was an example of way too many parlays depending on the same teams. Rutgers loss was the lone blemish on 4 parlays costing my a 28 unit profit. Though breaking even +0.2 unit is better than losing.

Oddly enough the core of my Week 12 was successful: 3-1 on totals and 2-1 on spreads equates to 5-2 +5 units with equal bets. I should have cut away the risky bets that sabotaged it.

I have had success with totals and I may try a few 1 unit parlays with them. I have had success with underdogs on teasers. I limit myself to one teaser this week, probably a special 10 pointer.

I'll come back with leans after I look over Week 13. Lets get back on track this week

[HoulihansTX]

Are you using that program I sent you?

[eastvan09]

Are you using that program I sent you?

I'm having a problem with the link. I'll send you a PM

[eastvan09]

EARLY LEANS

I've seeing chalk this week, I'll have to be careful...

Navy -8 (Feeling uneasy)
Pitt -1 (Can Pitt get a huge road win?)
Temple -3 (Road fav, I'd prefer -2.5 but they are rolling!)
Boise St -11.5 (Nevada is good, but I see potential value in less than -13)

I am not in love with any of these spreads yet! I want to find some dogs to back.

Totals:
Haven't seen any lines yet but I'll be playing several

[HoulihansTX]

I'm out dude. PM me what you think about the program.

Totals this week have a lot of matchups of similar teams. That make totals so much easier to pick.

[eastvan09]

I'm out dude. PM me what you think about the program. Totals this week have a lot of matchups of similar teams. That make totals so much easier to pick.

I'll look at the program tomorrow and PM you. I'm glad to hear totals will be easier this week, you are on a roll! Time to make up for my Sunday...

[eastvan09]

EARLY LEANS


Navy -8 (Feeling uneasy)
Pitt -1 (Can Pitt get a huge road win?)
Temple -3 (Road fav, I'd prefer -2.5 but they are rolling!)
Boise St -11.5 (Nevada is good, but I see potential value in less than -13)
Hawaii +8 (Navy isn't blowing teams out as a road Fav. Too many points to lay as Navy is travelling cross country)

[bigcat1]

not trying to talk you out of your hawaii pick +8, have you watched hawaii play their run defense is really weak, may be wrong but i think navy runs the ball alot (maybe the option) just look at hawaii and who they have played, and how they was beaten, i mean look la tech and what they done to them. best of luck with your pics this week

[eastvan09]

not trying to talk you out of your hawaii pick +8, have you watched hawaii play their run defense is really weak, may be wrong but i think navy runs the ball alot (maybe the option) just look at hawaii and who they have played, and how they was beaten, i mean look la tech and what they done to them. best of luck with your pics this week

I'm not confident about that Navy/Hawaii game. I see Hawaii at +9.5 now and rising. If it gets upto +10.5 I may play my lean on Hawaii for a mere 1 unit or so.

You are right that Navy's strength is that run/option and Hawaii's D hasn't inspired confidence against solid opponents. My wager may come down to whether I think Navy is focused and motivated 4 time zones from home. Navy had to come back in the second half to escape SMU with a win.

[eastvan09]

EARLY LEANS * UPDATED

Pitt -2 (Can Pitt get a huge road win?)
Already up to -1.5/-2, can the stache get a huge road win by a FG? I'm not sure but this Pitt team is pulling out wins. West Virginia battled hard at Cinci so I may pass on this or even look at West Vir +2

Temple -3 (Road fav, I'd prefer -2.5 but they are rolling!)

Boise St -13 (Nevada is good, but I see potential value in less than -13)
This is already up into the -13/-13.5 range. If I want to play it I have to cover with a 2 TD win. Any higher and I pass or buy down to -13.5. I like Boise St at home for 2 TDs but I prefer not to lay big chalk against a high scoring team like Nevada team

Hawaii +9.5 (Navy isn't blowing teams out as a road Fav. Too many points to lay as Navy is travelling cross country)

[eastvan09]

Added*

Stanford -8 I heard Jimmy has some black eyes. Notre Dame back door covered in the 4th Q at Pitt. Can they keep it to a single digit loss at Stanford? I'll watch this and see if public $ chases this line upto 10

[iceminers26]

Hawaii

[eastvan09]

Hawaii

Ya, I'm waiting for this line to creep up past 10 before I consider making a play.

I may end up playing mainly totals this week.

[eastvan09]

Booked plays

BOOKED PLAYS

Alabama -10 1.1 units to win 1 (Going with the public on some chalk, Bama will lay the wood)
Boise St -14 1.1 units to win 1 (Slight public leaning on B St, may increase closer to game time)
Marshall +1.5 1.1 units to win 1 (On same side as public again on this...)


LEANS

Pitt - PK
Public is solidly on Pitt, I'm still on the fence about whether Wanny can get a win, PK is enticing

Temple -2.5
Public is on Temple but lines are still -2.5/-3,


Fade The Public Leans

Nebraska/ Colorado Under 38
Public is on Over bigtime, I'm waiting for the volume to come in leading upto the game to see if the number creeps up. I see 38.5 at one book

Va Tech/ Virg Under 42
Public is heavy on this over! I see one 42.5 at The Greek, I hope this keeps rising.

Duke +4.5/+5
Fade the public on Wake. I'm not sure Wake is good enough to get more than a FG

Hawaii +9.5
Navy isn't blowing teams out as a road Fav. Too many points to lay as Navy is travelling cross country. I saw my first +10!!
__________________

[eastvan09]

BOOKED PLAYS

Alabama -10 1.1 units to win 1

Boise St -14 1.1 units to win 1

Marshall +1.5 1.1 units to win 1

Va Tech/ Virg U-42 3.1 units to win 2.8 units *ADDED

Missouri/Kansas O-56 3.1 units to win 2.8 units *ADDED

So. Miss/East Car O-55 3.1 units to win 2.8 units *ADDED

Utah/BYU Over 52½ 3.1 units to win 2.8 units *ADDED

Arizona/Arizona St U-44 3.1 units to win 2.8 units *ADDED


LEANS (I am cutting the leans to focus on my strong plays)

USC/UCLA U-47.5 (Waiting to book til my other plays win and free up $)

Fade The Public Leans

Nebraska/ Colorado Under 40.5
Public is on Over big; (I have $ tied up in NCAAB which will probably prevent me from playing this)

[eastvan09]

Results spreads, ugh!

BOOKED PLAYS
Overall: 0-2 -2.2 units

Alabama -10 1.1 units to win 1 L -1.1 units Damn Bama!

Boise St -14 1.1 units to win 1 L -1.1 units Boise up 20 after 1Q can't hold!

Marshall +1.5 1.1 units to win 1

Va Tech/ Virg U-42 3.1 units to win 2.8 units

Missouri/Kansas O-56 3.1 units to win 2.8 units

So. Miss/East Car O-55 3.1 units to win 2.8 units

Utah/BYU Over 52½ 3.1 units to win 2.8 units

Arizona/Arizona St U-44 3.1 units to win 2.8 units


LEANS (I am cutting the leans to focus on my strong plays)

USC/UCLA U-47.5 (Waiting to book til my other plays win and free up $)

With UConn losing +3.5 in NCAAB, Boise St losing and Bama losing I have no units to play my lean on USC/UCLA. Absolutely atrocious day gambling! I need 4-1 or 5-0 on my totals tomorrow to recover

[eastvan09]

Week 13 recap losses! Ugh

Overall: 2-6 -7 units

Alabama -10 1.1 units to win 1 L -1.1 units

Boise St -14 1.1 units to win 1 L -1.1 units

Marshall +1.5 1.1 units to win 1 L -1.1 units

Va Tech/ Virg U-42 3.1 units to win 2.8 units L -3.1 units

Missouri/Kansas O-56 3.1 units to win 2.8 units W +2.8 units

So. Miss/East Car O-55 3.1 units to win 2.8 units L -3.1 units

Utah/BYU Over 52½ 3.1 units to win 2.8 units L -3.1 units

Arizona/Arizona St U-44 3.1 units to win 2.8 units W +2.8 units


Bad losing week. There are few games in Week 14, I'll make only my strongest plays!