Wal's Sunday Nighter

[wal66]

Sunday November 8, 2009
8:30 PM
Nevada @ San Jose St



Records:
Nevada 5-3 (3-5 ATS) 1-2 on the road
San Jose St 1-6 (2-5 ATS) 1-2 at home

Trends:
Nevada is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games overall
San Jose St is 2-10 in their last 12 games overall
Favorite is 8-1 ATS in last 9 meetings

Head to Head:
Nevada is 7-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last 10 in the series.
Nevada won last year at home as a 15.5 point favorite 41-17.

Common Opponent:
Both teams have played Idaho at home. Nevada won 70-45 and San Jose St lost 29-25.

Offense:
Nevada averages 18.3 ppg on the road
San Jose St allows an average of 20.7 ppg at home

Defense:
Nevada allows an average of 34 ppg on the road
San Jose averages 19.3 ppg at home

Injuries:
Nevada will most likely be missing starting DE Kevin Basped
San Jose St will be without starting center

My Take:
First off I noticed the record and thought San Jose St must be ass. I haven’t seen any of there games and just assumed. Then I compared who they have played this season and this team has played one of the toughest strength of schedules in the nation. So some respect even in the losses has to be given to this team. Nevada started out slow, very slow. Many had high expectations as to what this team would offer this season and early on had to be disappointed. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick finally got things going and Nevada has reeled off 5 wins in a row. The wins are somewhat hollow perhaps when you look at who they have beaten but they are wins. We only have the one game against Idaho to get a feel for what may be in store for us to night, however I’m not one to put much stock in just one game. Tonight could be a massive blowout and I am going against history in this series I guess but my program likes San Jose St to keep it closer than the line.

Program:
Nevada by 5 so we have ample value with a play on the home team here.



Play:

San Jose St +14* (buying the hook just in case)

[wal66]

I may have jinxed myself starting a seperate thread like this.

[jellobiafra]

Tailing you buddy.

[wal66]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!

Jello don't do that to me. I'm a hack, a fluke, a joke. Tailing me will only cost you money that could be better spent of other worthwhile endeavors. I plead with you to NOT tail me.

I can't handle the pressure of the tail. Don't like losing but expect som losses along the way but the tail? No I can't handle the pressure of the tail. I'm not one of those ego maniacs that needs his or her confidence boosted by knowing that someone is actually taking them seriously and not only that but putting their confidence in that person. JELLO DON'T TAIL!




Seriously tonights play is an absolute degenerate play top to bottom. Everything points to Nevada and I am trusting my program more than good judgement here. If you are playing this at least find a reason you personally like for it.


I won't sleep tonight now that you've used the term "tail".

[jellobiafra]

JELLO DON'T TAIL!


If you are playing this at least find a reason you personally like for it.

No way pal. I went all in on this based on your analysis. I actually bet WAY over my head here because you liked it so much. Don't try to act like you weren't suggesting I do that either. I read between the lines.

[mcbaseball10]

No pressure Wally. jello needs this bad.

[wal66]

Well that's just great. Not only do I have to deal with the sress of this stupid diet thing I now have the weight of your entire bankroll riding on my shoulders.

I could have easily have slipped this game in under the radar and no-one would have been the wiser but nooooooooo you had to tail and now EEEEEEEEEEEEEveryone will winess your demise at my mere suggestion of this silly game.

We can only pray the is a severe power outage and the game get's postponed.

[wal66]

Boys on a serious note. This weeks lines have pppppppppppppppppleanty of value in some of those games. There are also a few stinkers that will look easy and be very very costly.

[PAPSMEAR]

run and hide wal if san jose doesn't cover because jello is coming after you

[wal66]

He does strike me as a loose cannon. Even by SBR standards he is unbalanced. He tries to hide it but I see these things beneath their surface.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Nevada is a solid team. This does not look good. BOL

[jellobiafra]

Boys on a serious note. This weeks lines have pppppppppppppppppleanty of value in some of those games. There are also a few stinkers that will look easy and be very very costly.

Well when I use the rent money to reload tomorrow, I won't be spending any of that money on your picks. I hope you understand.



Don't sweat it Wally. I'm used to losing. And the bankroll is fine for now.

[Masu485]

omg, i'm JUST like you. i saw the line, i knew nevada would win and cover easily, EVERYTHING pointed to Nevada, and i STILL TOOK SAN JOSE BECAUSE MY SYSTEM SAID SO! WHY ARE WE SUCH IDIOTS???

[Masu485]

especially since vegas makes all their money back on NFL sundays, they don't need this game to be an upset.

[wal66]

Masu485..........we do this because we trust our systems or programs or whatever because they prove over time to be solid. My gut told me Nevada tonight and actually when initially doing this write-up I was going against the program but I went ahead and went with it. Today it failed as it has plenty of times in the past but overall it works as it has more than not.

It'll bring more winners this week just not tonight.


Jello, I know you were playing and we had fun and I truly never want anyone to tail me or any other poster without something else to go with it as I'm sure you never would. I will tell you when I have one that is worth really paying attention to. I owe you a really good one this week and I'm fairly confident I have 1 or maybe 2.

[sn00p]

You got confused, Last Sunday you had nevada picked and since they played a week later which was way late . you had already run your program on Sunday and it didn't know that san jose didn't play yet.

[sn00p]

hrm. I just looked at the week 10 picks I saw that you had san jose st. I could of sworn I saw nevada

[wal66]

Snoop I did like Nevada initially and even while doing my write-up I liked Nevada. Just got a hunch that maybe my program was seeing something I was overlooking and went with it. Done it before will probably do it again. Sometimes it works but most of the time if the research and the program do not line up I will pass. Just decided to push it and DAYUM was I wrong.

[sn00p]

I am liking iowa +13 for this week. ohio is good but got no defense. its a must win game for iowa for them to be bowl eligible but then again its at ohio. I may stay away haven't decided, i'm also looking at that byu one .

[jds07v]

they have been bowl eligible for 3 weeks

[sn00p]

eff it. I took Northwestern your program had them only winning by two and the line is -4.5 for illinois to cover that much and Northwestern is going for bowling bid also. and iowa is a very dangerous and so is byu. not a lot of value in some of the lines. that I liked.

[sn00p]

I got Temple -4.5 Northwestern +4.5 and Duke +10.5