I know the going line for this is actually 33 right now, but I do have an out that is showing the New Orleans team total under 34, so that is what I am using here.
Folks, There is no way that the Saints are going to score more than 34 points tonight. Yes, I know Drew Brees is having a great year and I know the Saints have been running the score up on crap defenses. Yes, I agree that the Saints were impressive in the second half against the Dolphins last week.
Think about this, in years past how often would any team ever have a team total this high in the NFL ? Pretty close to never. This year, a lot good teams have been running the score up on crappy competition and that causes the books to get killed by squares betting the favorite and over.
Now the books have adjusted their totals upward to make it less likely that these favorite and over plays keep killing them. Also, defenses in the league are going to adjust to face these teams. The Saints are averaging 39.7 points per game this year, and we all know that average is certain to come down.
We have seen the saints held down by lesser defenses this year. They only managed 24 points at home against a Jets defense that in recent weeks has shown to not be very good. They also only managed 27 points against a Bills defense that got rolled yesterday by the Texans. Last week, the Dolphins held them in check for the better part of 3 quarters.
The Saints offense can definitely be shut down, even though at times it has looked otherwise. The Falcons defense matches up very well against the Saints offense, they are in their element playing in a dome. This Falcons defense, before getting smacked in Dallas last week had only given up 15 points per game this year. Even now, they have only given up 19 points per game and the task for the Saints is to score almost double that.
The Saints this year have managed to score some big points on a lot of defenses who were perhaps not expecting the strong 1 2 punch the Saints bring with its good running and passing game. But in the NFL coaches adjust and teams learn how to play these killer offenses. We see it all the time. a team starts out averaging 40 per game and then the last 10 games they might average 17-20.
The Saints just simply are not going to score over 34 points tonight. I am not in the mood to make wild predictions today, so I am not going to say they score 10 or less. The Saints likely score 20-24 points and win this game, but I think the Falcons cover here.
The play though is on the Saints team total under 34 as I feel no offense in the NFL is so good that it should have a team total of 34 against this Falcons Defense.
Folks, There is no way that the Saints are going to score more than 34 points tonight. Yes, I know Drew Brees is having a great year and I know the Saints have been running the score up on crap defenses. Yes, I agree that the Saints were impressive in the second half against the Dolphins last week.
Think about this, in years past how often would any team ever have a team total this high in the NFL ? Pretty close to never. This year, a lot good teams have been running the score up on crappy competition and that causes the books to get killed by squares betting the favorite and over.
Now the books have adjusted their totals upward to make it less likely that these favorite and over plays keep killing them. Also, defenses in the league are going to adjust to face these teams. The Saints are averaging 39.7 points per game this year, and we all know that average is certain to come down.
We have seen the saints held down by lesser defenses this year. They only managed 24 points at home against a Jets defense that in recent weeks has shown to not be very good. They also only managed 27 points against a Bills defense that got rolled yesterday by the Texans. Last week, the Dolphins held them in check for the better part of 3 quarters.
The Saints offense can definitely be shut down, even though at times it has looked otherwise. The Falcons defense matches up very well against the Saints offense, they are in their element playing in a dome. This Falcons defense, before getting smacked in Dallas last week had only given up 15 points per game this year. Even now, they have only given up 19 points per game and the task for the Saints is to score almost double that.
The Saints this year have managed to score some big points on a lot of defenses who were perhaps not expecting the strong 1 2 punch the Saints bring with its good running and passing game. But in the NFL coaches adjust and teams learn how to play these killer offenses. We see it all the time. a team starts out averaging 40 per game and then the last 10 games they might average 17-20.
The Saints just simply are not going to score over 34 points tonight. I am not in the mood to make wild predictions today, so I am not going to say they score 10 or less. The Saints likely score 20-24 points and win this game, but I think the Falcons cover here.
The play though is on the Saints team total under 34 as I feel no offense in the NFL is so good that it should have a team total of 34 against this Falcons Defense.