Colt McCoy and Texas face tough test at Ok State
Oklahoma State has given Colt McCoy and the Longhorns quite a scare the last two seasons only to come up short in close losses to their Big 12 South rivals. Will the Halloween night matchup this year be another fright or an upset win? Providing a nice intro into the evening match is the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party that features No. 1 Florida in their annual meeting with the Georgia Bulldogs.
The ranks of the undefeated remain swollen as we head into Week 9 of the college football season. Seven of the top eight teams in the polls have yet to register a loss; the only exception is the USC Trojans at 6-1. You know it’s not going to last.
Some of these “perfect” clubs are decidedly less than perfect, and we’ve got two of them in our crosshairs for Saturday.
Georgia vs. No. 1 Florida (-14.5, 48)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Florida (7-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) is undefeated, but also largely untested in the SEC East Division. Brian Fremeau’s efficiency metrics have the Gators ranked No. 79 in strength of schedule; they were favored by at least 20 points in all their games except Week 6 at LSU (+9.5), which they covered in a 13-3 victory. Florida has dropped the cash twice since then against Arkansas (+24) and at Mississippi State (+23).
Georgia (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) is a powerhouse compared to those two SEC West doormats, but there’s no denying this has been a very disappointing season for the Bulldogs. They’re ranked No. 46 in overall team efficiency, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt (No. 72 in the FBS) compared to Florida’s top-ranked 5.0 yards. This would be a fatal flaw if Percy Harvin were still around, but QB Tim Tebow has only thrown eight TD passes all season – five of those in non-conference action.
Florida’s strength on the ground is undeniable. Led by Tebow’s Heisman-winning hybrid style, the Gators are fourth in the FBS at 5.72 yards per carry. And that should be the difference in this matchup; although the Bulldogs are well represented at linebacker, they’re still allowing 3.62 yards per carry, or No. 49 in the nation. That’s why we’re seeing the largest spread for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party since 2001.
The combination of strong defense and underperforming offense has cashed the under five straight times for the Gators. The Bulldogs are coming into this contest off the bye week; weather conditions at the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville are expected to be hot and mostly sunny.
No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State (+9.5, 53)
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Things will cool off by game time (8:00 p.m. ET, 7:00 p.m. local) at Boone Pickens Stadium, where the Cowboys (6-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) are lying in wait to lasso the Longhorns (7-0 SU, 2-4-1 ATS). The Big 12 has taken a major step back this year; Texas is ranked No. 46 in strength of schedule, the only tough matchup on the schedule being the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma (+3). That one ended in a push against the betting odds and a 13-10 Longhorns win.
Texas has traditionally dominated this matchup, winning each of the last 10 games at 7-3 ATS. But the ‘Pokes have turned the corner under coach Mike Gundy since he took over the program in 2005. In last year’s Week 9 tilt, Oklahoma State handed Texas its first ATS loss of the season, and nearly won the game outright before falling 28-24 as 11.5-point road dogs. Things are humming along nicely in 2009, although again with a weak schedule at No. 86 in the FBS. This will be the first time OSU has assumed the underdog role this year.
Much like the Gators, the Longhorns are relying on their stalwart defense to mask their blemishes on offense. Texas is first in the FBS in run defense (1.47 yards per carry) and sixth through the air at 5.2 yards per attempt. Cowboys QB Zac Robinson (12 TD passes, four rushing TDs, three INTs) will test the ‘Horns on both fronts; he’s having a better season than Heisman candidate Colt McCoy (14 TDs, eight INTs) with significantly less fanfare.
McCoy has a chance to turn that all around Saturday if he’s willing and able to air the ball out. The ‘Pokes are No. 42 in the nation against the pass at 6.4 yards per attempt, but the Texas offensive line hasn’t been strong enough to give McCoy adequate time in the pocket. He’s throwing a career-low 7.1 yards per attempt, down sharply from 8.9 last year and much shorter than Robinson at 8.8 this year. That’s the recipe for the under going 5-1 in the last six Texas games. The mighty underdog-under parlay should get plenty of burn this weekend.
Oklahoma State has given Colt McCoy and the Longhorns quite a scare the last two seasons only to come up short in close losses to their Big 12 South rivals. Will the Halloween night matchup this year be another fright or an upset win? Providing a nice intro into the evening match is the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party that features No. 1 Florida in their annual meeting with the Georgia Bulldogs.
The ranks of the undefeated remain swollen as we head into Week 9 of the college football season. Seven of the top eight teams in the polls have yet to register a loss; the only exception is the USC Trojans at 6-1. You know it’s not going to last.
Some of these “perfect” clubs are decidedly less than perfect, and we’ve got two of them in our crosshairs for Saturday.
Georgia vs. No. 1 Florida (-14.5, 48)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Florida (7-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) is undefeated, but also largely untested in the SEC East Division. Brian Fremeau’s efficiency metrics have the Gators ranked No. 79 in strength of schedule; they were favored by at least 20 points in all their games except Week 6 at LSU (+9.5), which they covered in a 13-3 victory. Florida has dropped the cash twice since then against Arkansas (+24) and at Mississippi State (+23).
Georgia (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) is a powerhouse compared to those two SEC West doormats, but there’s no denying this has been a very disappointing season for the Bulldogs. They’re ranked No. 46 in overall team efficiency, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt (No. 72 in the FBS) compared to Florida’s top-ranked 5.0 yards. This would be a fatal flaw if Percy Harvin were still around, but QB Tim Tebow has only thrown eight TD passes all season – five of those in non-conference action.
Florida’s strength on the ground is undeniable. Led by Tebow’s Heisman-winning hybrid style, the Gators are fourth in the FBS at 5.72 yards per carry. And that should be the difference in this matchup; although the Bulldogs are well represented at linebacker, they’re still allowing 3.62 yards per carry, or No. 49 in the nation. That’s why we’re seeing the largest spread for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party since 2001.
The combination of strong defense and underperforming offense has cashed the under five straight times for the Gators. The Bulldogs are coming into this contest off the bye week; weather conditions at the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville are expected to be hot and mostly sunny.
No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State (+9.5, 53)
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Things will cool off by game time (8:00 p.m. ET, 7:00 p.m. local) at Boone Pickens Stadium, where the Cowboys (6-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) are lying in wait to lasso the Longhorns (7-0 SU, 2-4-1 ATS). The Big 12 has taken a major step back this year; Texas is ranked No. 46 in strength of schedule, the only tough matchup on the schedule being the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma (+3). That one ended in a push against the betting odds and a 13-10 Longhorns win.
Texas has traditionally dominated this matchup, winning each of the last 10 games at 7-3 ATS. But the ‘Pokes have turned the corner under coach Mike Gundy since he took over the program in 2005. In last year’s Week 9 tilt, Oklahoma State handed Texas its first ATS loss of the season, and nearly won the game outright before falling 28-24 as 11.5-point road dogs. Things are humming along nicely in 2009, although again with a weak schedule at No. 86 in the FBS. This will be the first time OSU has assumed the underdog role this year.
Much like the Gators, the Longhorns are relying on their stalwart defense to mask their blemishes on offense. Texas is first in the FBS in run defense (1.47 yards per carry) and sixth through the air at 5.2 yards per attempt. Cowboys QB Zac Robinson (12 TD passes, four rushing TDs, three INTs) will test the ‘Horns on both fronts; he’s having a better season than Heisman candidate Colt McCoy (14 TDs, eight INTs) with significantly less fanfare.
McCoy has a chance to turn that all around Saturday if he’s willing and able to air the ball out. The ‘Pokes are No. 42 in the nation against the pass at 6.4 yards per attempt, but the Texas offensive line hasn’t been strong enough to give McCoy adequate time in the pocket. He’s throwing a career-low 7.1 yards per attempt, down sharply from 8.9 last year and much shorter than Robinson at 8.8 this year. That’s the recipe for the under going 5-1 in the last six Texas games. The mighty underdog-under parlay should get plenty of burn this weekend.
