Well, I like to stick to 1 or 2 plays a week mainly because I dont have crazy cash to be throwing all over the place risking it on football games, but every once in a while there comes a week with a lot of good shit.
I think the linesmakers in Vegas might have been drunk when they made some of these lines this week, or maybe they had those 2 pilots that flew 150 miles too far make this weeks lines. Whatever man, this week has some crazy numbers on the board.
GEORGIA TECH TEAM TOTAL 29 ( Current at The Greek )
UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER and UNDER
Vanderbilt has one of the best scoring Defenses in the country. They have given up an average of 17 points per game this year. LSU Scored 23 against them, Miss. State got 15 against them, S Carolina got 14, Ole Miss got 23. Nobody is going to break 30 against Vanderbilts Defense. There aint no way that The Yellow Jackets are going to break 30 in this game.
Georgia Tech is averaging 32 points per game this year but thats against much weaker Defenses, as they have ran the score up and padded that average against some weak Defenses like Florida State.
Georgia Tech did manage to score 37 against Jackson State
And somehow they are going to get 30 against Vanderbilt's kick arse D ? They would need to score 70 on Jackson State to convince me they have a shot at 30 on the road against Vandy.
The Yellow Jackets dont score that much on the road and this is by far the best Defense they have seen this year. In fact, the only way you score on Vandy is by running the ball and then sometimes you can hold the ball for 7 or 8 minutes and get your 3 points.
On Saturday, its suppose to rain all day at Vanderbilt University. That will make it that much harder for the Yellow Jackets to get 30 points. You know something else, I doubt that vandy scores much either. In the 4th quarter, this will likely be Ga Tech 17-7 and Ga Tech wont even be trying to score. They will be running clock and protecting against a turnover.
I am not going to say anything is 100% as we all know that any play can lose, but we as gamblers are looking for +EV and this play is most definitely +EV.
I dont see how a team averaging 32 plays at a defense giving up 17 points a game, and the forecast is for pouring rain and you put out a team total of 29 ?
Where is the logic in that ? I know the big advantage here for Ga tech is they are a good rushing team and that is vandy's weakness. But, you know when you run the ball a lot and Vandy will do the same you are shortening the game. And you know, Vandy maybe has given up rushing yards this year but is hasnt been translating into points. So all that does is run the clock down without producing points, which further screams under 29.
The day Ga Tech scores 29 points in this game I will eat my shoe or think of something else equally disgusting. The Yellow Jackets have about as much chance of getting 30 on saturday as I do of beating Tiger in Golf or Jordan in a game of 21.
I am going to call it right now -- Georgia Tech scores 20 or less on Saturday.
I think the linesmakers in Vegas might have been drunk when they made some of these lines this week, or maybe they had those 2 pilots that flew 150 miles too far make this weeks lines. Whatever man, this week has some crazy numbers on the board.
GEORGIA TECH TEAM TOTAL 29 ( Current at The Greek )
UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER and UNDER
Vanderbilt has one of the best scoring Defenses in the country. They have given up an average of 17 points per game this year. LSU Scored 23 against them, Miss. State got 15 against them, S Carolina got 14, Ole Miss got 23. Nobody is going to break 30 against Vanderbilts Defense. There aint no way that The Yellow Jackets are going to break 30 in this game.
Georgia Tech is averaging 32 points per game this year but thats against much weaker Defenses, as they have ran the score up and padded that average against some weak Defenses like Florida State.
Georgia Tech did manage to score 37 against Jackson State
And somehow they are going to get 30 against Vanderbilt's kick arse D ? They would need to score 70 on Jackson State to convince me they have a shot at 30 on the road against Vandy.
The Yellow Jackets dont score that much on the road and this is by far the best Defense they have seen this year. In fact, the only way you score on Vandy is by running the ball and then sometimes you can hold the ball for 7 or 8 minutes and get your 3 points.
On Saturday, its suppose to rain all day at Vanderbilt University. That will make it that much harder for the Yellow Jackets to get 30 points. You know something else, I doubt that vandy scores much either. In the 4th quarter, this will likely be Ga Tech 17-7 and Ga Tech wont even be trying to score. They will be running clock and protecting against a turnover.
I am not going to
say anything is 100% as we all know that any play can lose, but we as gamblers are looking for +EV and this play is most definitely +EV.I dont see how a team averaging 32 plays at a defense giving up 17 points a game, and the forecast is for pouring rain and you put out a team total of 29 ?
Where is the logic in that ? I know the big advantage here for Ga tech is they are a good rushing team and that is vandy's weakness. But, you know when you run the ball a lot and Vandy will do the same you are shortening the game. And you know, Vandy maybe has given up rushing yards this year but is hasnt been translating into points. So all that does is run the clock down without producing points, which further screams under 29.
The day Ga Tech scores 29 points in this game I will eat my shoe or think of something else equally disgusting. The Yellow Jackets have about as much chance of getting 30 on saturday as I do of beating Tiger in Golf or Jordan in a game of 21.
I am going to call it right now -- Georgia Tech scores 20 or less on Saturday.
