Razz's Weekend Plays, 11/19-11/20

**bigpig19** · 11-15-05, 01:30 PM

I will not be putting Tx. Tech out but i would like to disagree with you. Red raiders are 15-2 ATS in last home game and are 18-5 ATS following a loss I do however like Iowa and probably have them Just my 2 cents. Good Luck this weekend I hope you continue to have a good season.

**Razz** · 11-16-05, 09:23 AM

Saturday night's all right for upsets

McDonald's card this weak, that is I'm lovin' it.
Granted this record is horrible, but that was mostly due to a hideous start which saw me drop 10 games under .500 and down 90 units at one points. Since posting only my own plays, as opposed to that which I combined with my consensus partner, my record has been good, and it’s a welcome change.
I have written up both in-state games, which according to that record should be the only thing I bet on, but that record does not include actual plays. The rest of the write-ups will come later.

NCAA Football Overall (91-94-0, -76.15*)
NCAAF Sides (68-70, -63.35*)

Saturday 11/19

6* BYU -11.5 vs. Utah
Big-time revenge game from last year, when Utah went out of their way to run the score up in 52-21 victory. The tables have turned completely in one season, as Utah has only covered one game, and still is being overvalued because of last year’s run.
BYU is clicking on all cylinders, and should expose the Ute defense. Their spread offense is on fire, and they put up 267 rushing yards against a solid Wyoming rush defense last week. The Cougars are now averaging 51 ppg their last three outings, and the Ute defense is no match.
BYU -11 would have been a solid play regardless, but with Utah’s QB Johnson out, the Utes will struggle to keep this one close.
BYU 45, Utah 14

5* Tulsa -13.5 vs. Tulane (N) - upgraded on Friday morning.

4* Oklahoma +8 @ Texas Tech
The simple and amazingly effective way of handicapping Texas Tech games is acknowledging whether or not their opposition has the understanding and personnel to stop the potent Red Raider offense. Basically there are three Big 12 teams that understand how to play defense against them - Kansas (only covered by a little because their personnel is not as dominant), Texas (thrashed the Red Raiders, and held them to 17 points), and Oklahoma.
Mike Leach was an assistant at Oklahoma when the Sooners won the national championship five years ago, and he has held over him since Leach went to be the head coach at Texas Tech. Most importantly, Stoops & Co. know how to shut down Leach’s otherwise high-powered offenses.

2001 - Oklahoma 30, Texas Tech 13
2002 - Oklahoma 60, Texas Tech 15
2003 - Oklahoma 56, Texas Tech 25
2004 - Oklahoma 28, Texas Tech 13

This year’s edition isn’t as high-powered as in the past, as recent struggles against Baylor and Oklahoma St. show. Maybe it’s that QB Hodges isn’t as good as Leach’s past QBs, or maybe it’s that the rest of the league has figured his system out.
Mike Leach claims that this year’s Texas Tech defense is the best he has had in his tenure in Lubbock. Maybe it is, but they were torched by Oklahoma St.’s rushing attack. Now, a fully healthy Adrian Peterson leads an Oklahoma offense into Lubbock to face the same group. Rhett Bomar and the explosive Sooner WRs have turned the Oklahoma passing game into an added threat, especially against the weaker defenses they have faced.
One caveat: if Texas Tech somehow gets out to a nice lead, they won’t hesitate to run the score up. I don’t think they can, since they really aren’t the better team here.
Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 24

4* Iowa -4 vs. Minnesota
Star RB Maroney is playing for the Golden Gophers this week, but that is really irrelevant, as whoever lines up behind Minnesota’s O-line runs wild at home (Pinnix went for 206 last week), and against mediocre opponents. Neither comes into play this week, as they face an Iowa defense more than capable of stopping the run (held Calhoun and Co to a total of 19 yds rushing last week), at Kinnick Field where the Hawkeyes are amazingly 17-2-1 ATS recently. They are also 33-13-1 ATS in conference games recently. Drew Tate (15 TDs, only 5 INTs) and Albert Young (six straight 100-yard rushing games) have the Iowa offense rolling.
Iowa 34, Minnesota 21

4* Fresno St. +24 -120 @ USC
Confusing line. USC has no reason to run up scores anymore, now that they are guaranteed national title shot if they win out. Now, they play arguably the best team they have faced all year, and the only one that is not impressed by SC. Fresno’s only loss was by three points at Oregon, in a game they should have won. And their record against major conference opponents is extremely impressive for a WAC team.
Pinegar, Sumlin, and Mathis lead an extremely potent offensive unit that racked up 513 yards against Boise St. last week. Pat Hill will try to shorten the game, and with two dominant backs they could wear the Trojans down, and keep their offense off the field, which could lead to turnovers from an impatient USC offense.
USC does not have a national championship-caliber defense, and if they don’t show up here, the BCS could be headed for all kinds of controversy (It would be a shame if Penn St. didn’t get a chance, but I’m getting ahead of myself). I’m not going to predict the outright upset, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
USC 41, Fresno St. 31

3* Maryland +3 -120 vs. Boston College
3* Oregon -13 vs. Oregon St.
3* Mississippi +17 vs. LSU
2* Duke +24 -105 @ North Carolina
2* Michigan St. +7.5 vs. Penn St. -105 - added Friday morning
2* Virginia +7 vs. Virginia Tech
2* Baylor -2.5 vs. Oklahoma St.
2* Vanderbilt +12 @ Tennessee

NCAAF Totals (23-24-0, -13.10*)
None

In-State Opinions (9-2-2):

Opinion: Auburn -7 vs. Alabama
Auburn has only beaten Alabama by double digits one time since the sixties. However, they have rarely been the clearly superior team, as they are this year. In my eyes, there is no question they are the best team in the SEC. Their offense is the best Alabama has seen this season. I don’t want to lay a touchdown here, though, because I am not sure what offensive game plan the Tigers are planning on taking.
Last week, I knew they were going to pound the Bulldog defense, and be given easy passing situations once the running game started clicking. This week, the Tigers need to spread Alabama out to open up the running game, but I am afraid they will be hesitant to do so, because offensive coordinator Al Borges still blames Auburn’s season opening loss on his decision to pass the ball the majority of the time (Tre Smith was the starting running back at the time, and not very good. Borges chose to go with the explosive WRs and trust inexperienced QB Cox.) If Borges can convince himself to spread Alabama out, and play his four NFL caliber wide-outs, Auburn could put up 30+ points again. While this sounds ridiculous against a defense giving up single-digits on the scoreboard for the season, Alabama has not faced any potent passing offenses. Their biggest weakness lies in the secondary, and their #2 corner, Anthony Madison, is not a cover corner by any stretch of the imagination. If Auburn starts the game this way, Alabama will be forced to go to deep zone, and the Tigers running game will open up against the dominant Tide front 7. RB Irons has been unstoppable, going for 173 against a good Georgia D last week.
Alabama’s offensive struggles have been well documented, but for some reason, Auburn has struggled stopping teams the last two weeks. The Tigers should create enough upfront pressure to hound Brodie Croyle, and the inexperienced offensive line won’t be able to do enough for RB Darby, who was held to 19 rushing yards when these teams met last year.
Auburn 24, Alabama 12

Opinion: UAB +7.5 @ UTEP
UAB’s a good dog, and their five losses this season have come by a total of 24 points. UTEP turns the ball over way too much to be laying more than a touchdown to a very undervalued UAB team.
UTEP 31, UAB 28

**Razz** · 11-16-05, 09:31 AM

Sunday

I appreciate my biggest play of the week going down in flames thanks to Andy “I should change my name to Mike” Reid wanting to throw the ball late when the Cowboys a) couldn’t stop the run, and b) almost certainly wouldn’t have scored again when their offense has done very little all game, except for two long passes.
Anyway it’s a new week, and nothing stood out short of one game which may be the biggest non-Colts rout of the year. I only didn’t make it a monstrous play because my desire to lay 9.5 points on a big bet in the NFL is about as strong as my desire to see “Fever Pitch.”

NFL Overall (58-43-2, +40.55*)
NFL Sides (36-30-1, +20.95*)

Sunday 11/20

5* Chargers -9.5 vs. Bills
Great situation here, as the Chargers, who are point spread darlings, get to face a Bills team that is clueless away from home, with their average road game this season seeing the Bills be outscored by 13 points. Their last trip to the West Coast was a 38-17 loss to the sorry Raiders.
The Bills cannot stop the run, ranking 31st in the league in that area. Enter the best player in the NFL, LaDainian Tomlinson, who had another 4 TDs in his last game. The Chargers went through a brutal stretch the first half of the season, including their well-documented stretch of playing four teams coming off their bye week. Now, they are off their bye week, and ready to pounce on a Bills team that is not in the same class.
Chargers 41, Bills 20

2* Titans +4.5 (waiting, will update line when I play it) vs. Jaguars
2* Falcons -6 vs. Buccaneers
2* Bengals +4.5 (waiting, will update line when I play it) vs. Colts
2* Texans +7 (waiting, will update line when I play it) vs. Chiefs

NFL Totals (22-13-1, +19.60*)

3* Saints @ Patriots Over 45.5
2* Seattle @ San Francisco Under 43
2* Eagles @ Giants Over 43

EDIT: Here is what I ended up taking on the games I had been waiting to post:
2* Bengals +6 -115
1* Titans +4 -105 - Got some bad information that this line would go up. Even though I disagreed, I chose to wait like an idiot, and thus am making the play only a 1*.
3* Texans +7 -105

**slacker00** · 11-16-05, 11:32 PM

Razz, every time I check out your picks, I'm fading your best NFL pick!

I'm not heavy on Buffalo, and I'm waiting for the line to move in my favor, but I'm not at all in love with San Diego. Despite the flashes of greatness they've shown, they've also shown flashes of mediocrity. I like San Diego, but I don't love them. You'd have to love them to lay this kind of chalk. Buffalo +10 1/2

EDIT: Razz, sorry about the Philly MNF meltdown. I had the same thing happen to me with the Redskins-Dallas MNF earlier this year.

**Razz** · 11-17-05, 11:37 AM

Slack, I really do love San Diego, not just this week, but I have been pinpointing a game all year. Even though I am betting against them this week, I would love to see the Colts undefeated when they play the Chargers.
My preseason Super Bowl pick was San Diego over Carolina, and I haven't seen anything that would change my mind on either end. The Chargers have been in every game, and their losses saw them outplay their opponents. Their last 7 games are nowhere near the ridiculous schedule they went through early, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won out.

**bigpig19** · 11-17-05, 01:21 PM

Well another blazing week winning another 21.6* making it two straight 20*+ weekend and running our yearly total to 58.7* in total football with consensus partner and 50.2* without.

Here we go

8* Iowa -4
8* Northwestern -14'
4* Fresno State +23'
4* Vandy +12
4* UTEP -7

My personal top 10 (20-4 last 2 weeks)

1. Iowa -4
2. Fresno +23'
3. Oregon -13'
4. BYU -11'
5. Michigan St. +7'
6. Northwestern -14'
7. Vandy +12
8. Tulsa -14
9. Ohio St. -3
10. South Florida -19

NFL

7* Tampa Bay +6
5* Tennessee +4

My personal top 5 (4-1 last week)

1. Tampa Bay +6
2. San Diego -10'
3. Kansas City -7
4. Tennessee +4
5. San Francisco +12'