USC, Oregon battle with Pac-10 on the line
Maybe it's a good thing that both LA squads lost out in the recent AL and NL Championship Series. Had either the Angels or the Dodgers, or both, advanced to the World Series it would've put Left Coast fans in quite the quandry on what to watch on television Saturday night. Look for most sets to be tuned to the huge Pac-10 battle in Oregon when the No. 10 Ducks host the No. 5 USC Trojans.
If only there were 30 days in October. Then maybe the USC Trojans would stand a chance of covering this Saturday.
The No. 5-ranked Trojans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 October contests, including 1-2 ATS this month after relatively close finishes against Notre Dame (+10) and Oregon State (+21). It’s become a familiar trend for USC supporters: Big preseason expectations, often buoyed by impressive results against non-conference cupcakes, lead to inflated betting odds once the meat of the Pac-10 schedule arrives.
Of course, it doesn’t actually matter whether this Saturday’s matchup against the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (+3.5) lands on Nov. 1 or Oct. 31. But if we look at USC’s results over the past three years, we can draw a line at Week 9 and say this is when the Trojans bottom out. They’re 0-3 ATS in this situation, including road losses at Oregon (+3) in 2007 and Oregon State (+10) in 2006. Then the Trojans invariably dust themselves off and make a run for the Rose Bowl. In Week 10 and beyond, they’re 12-6 ATS.
The Ducks (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) certainly look capable of giving USC (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) another Pac-10 headache. Oregon has proven durable the past two years in the transition between QBs Dennis Dixon and Jeremiah Masoli (five TDs, two INTs, 4.6 yards per carry), who gets ample support from freshman RB LaMichael James (6.9 yards per carry). This speaks volumes for the success of Chip Kelly’s spread formation as he ascends the ladder from offensive co-ordinator to head coach.
Having said that, it’s the Ducks defense that has the team rolling in dough right now. Brian Fremeau has Oregon ranked No. 13 in the FBS in defensive efficiency – not in the same class as the Trojans at No. 2, but close enough to get to the pay window. The Ducks are loaded at linebacker with Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews, while freshman CB Cliff Harris stepped into a patchwork secondary and showed tremendous promise in last week’s 43-19 thumping of Washington (+9 at home).
Sharp bettors were happy to jump all over Oregon at Monday’s open, but the oddsmakers adjusted very quickly, moving to USC –3 and staying there at some locations as we went to press. It might seem early for the books to be seeking balance with the weekend rush still to come, but the public’s love affair with the Trojans has evidently been put on hold this month. Market reports have USC ranked No. 51 in the FBS in public support over the past 30 days, just one spot ahead of Oregon. This October downturn should again give the Trojans some betting value in the coming weeks.
The Trojans haven’t exactly enhanced their resume with their past two games. They had Notre Dame down 34-14 in the fourth quarter before Heisman hopeful Jimmy Clausen engineered a pair of TD drives to get the Irish back in the game. Then USC did the exact same thing against the Beavers, jumping ahead 42-23 before allowing OSU to score twice in the fourth.
There have been some shaky moments on offense, too, including two Beaver interceptions off the hands of freshman QB Matt Barkley. Coach Carroll replaced underperforming center Kris O'Dowd (knee) in that game by shifting senior LG Jeff Byers to his old position and plugging in Butch Lewis. Whoever lines up this Saturday should have an easier time against Oregon’s smallish defensive front. And a 50-percent chance of rain at Autzen Stadium gives added importance to the battle in the trenches.
Each of the last four matchups between these two teams went under the posted total, which has dwindled from 70 points in 2005 to a very low (for college) 45.5 points this Saturday. We’ll see if these two potent defenses can keep a lid on things. The fine folks at ABC have regional television coverage starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Maybe it's a good thing that both LA squads lost out in the recent AL and NL Championship Series. Had either the Angels or the Dodgers, or both, advanced to the World Series it would've put Left Coast fans in quite the quandry on what to watch on television Saturday night. Look for most sets to be tuned to the huge Pac-10 battle in Oregon when the No. 10 Ducks host the No. 5 USC Trojans.
If only there were 30 days in October. Then maybe the USC Trojans would stand a chance of covering this Saturday.
The No. 5-ranked Trojans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 October contests, including 1-2 ATS this month after relatively close finishes against Notre Dame (+10) and Oregon State (+21). It’s become a familiar trend for USC supporters: Big preseason expectations, often buoyed by impressive results against non-conference cupcakes, lead to inflated betting odds once the meat of the Pac-10 schedule arrives.
Of course, it doesn’t actually matter whether this Saturday’s matchup against the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (+3.5) lands on Nov. 1 or Oct. 31. But if we look at USC’s results over the past three years, we can draw a line at Week 9 and say this is when the Trojans bottom out. They’re 0-3 ATS in this situation, including road losses at Oregon (+3) in 2007 and Oregon State (+10) in 2006. Then the Trojans invariably dust themselves off and make a run for the Rose Bowl. In Week 10 and beyond, they’re 12-6 ATS.
The Ducks (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) certainly look capable of giving USC (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) another Pac-10 headache. Oregon has proven durable the past two years in the transition between QBs Dennis Dixon and Jeremiah Masoli (five TDs, two INTs, 4.6 yards per carry), who gets ample support from freshman RB LaMichael James (6.9 yards per carry). This speaks volumes for the success of Chip Kelly’s spread formation as he ascends the ladder from offensive co-ordinator to head coach.
Having said that, it’s the Ducks defense that has the team rolling in dough right now. Brian Fremeau has Oregon ranked No. 13 in the FBS in defensive efficiency – not in the same class as the Trojans at No. 2, but close enough to get to the pay window. The Ducks are loaded at linebacker with Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews, while freshman CB Cliff Harris stepped into a patchwork secondary and showed tremendous promise in last week’s 43-19 thumping of Washington (+9 at home).
Sharp bettors were happy to jump all over Oregon at Monday’s open, but the oddsmakers adjusted very quickly, moving to USC –3 and staying there at some locations as we went to press. It might seem early for the books to be seeking balance with the weekend rush still to come, but the public’s love affair with the Trojans has evidently been put on hold this month. Market reports have USC ranked No. 51 in the FBS in public support over the past 30 days, just one spot ahead of Oregon. This October downturn should again give the Trojans some betting value in the coming weeks.
The Trojans haven’t exactly enhanced their resume with their past two games. They had Notre Dame down 34-14 in the fourth quarter before Heisman hopeful Jimmy Clausen engineered a pair of TD drives to get the Irish back in the game. Then USC did the exact same thing against the Beavers, jumping ahead 42-23 before allowing OSU to score twice in the fourth.
There have been some shaky moments on offense, too, including two Beaver interceptions off the hands of freshman QB Matt Barkley. Coach Carroll replaced underperforming center Kris O'Dowd (knee) in that game by shifting senior LG Jeff Byers to his old position and plugging in Butch Lewis. Whoever lines up this Saturday should have an easier time against Oregon’s smallish defensive front. And a 50-percent chance of rain at Autzen Stadium gives added importance to the battle in the trenches.
Each of the last four matchups between these two teams went under the posted total, which has dwindled from 70 points in 2005 to a very low (for college) 45.5 points this Saturday. We’ll see if these two potent defenses can keep a lid on things. The fine folks at ABC have regional television coverage starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
