USC Trojans in South Bend to face Notre Dame
It's almost like Midseason Bowl Saturday with this week's college football schedule. First up is the Red River Rivalry in Dallas between OU and Texas which should segue nicely to Pete Carroll's USC Trojans traveling to face the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus. And the day culminates with a key ACC contest in Atlanta where Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech.
In theory, all four of the one-loss teams in this week’s college football betting preview are still in position to go to the BCS title game. In theory.
The stark reality is that only two teams can play, and having just one loss on your record doesn’t guarantee you jack. That makes every game a must-win-with-quality for all four of these big-name programs.
No. 6 USC at No. 25 Notre Dame (+10, 50)
Saturday, Oct 17, 3:30 p.m. (ET) NBC
It’s too bad you can’t fade both these pubic darlings at the same time. The Trojans (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have slumped through October in each of the past four seasons, but to their credit, they did crush California 30-3 in their last game to improve to 5-12 ATS in their last 17 October contests. The Fighting Irish (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in October, but haven’t covered in their last four games this year. They barely even won their last three:
Sept. 19: Michigan State 30, Notre Dame 33 (MSU +10.5)
Sept. 26: Notre Dame 24, Purdue 21 (Purdue +6.5)
Oct. 3: Washington 30, Notre Dame 37 (OT, Washington +12)
The Irish are now 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in South Bend against winning road teams. The Trojans are winners almost everywhere they go, but getting to the pay window is another matter. USC is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as a road chalk. And yet the Trojans are on a commanding seven-game winning streak against Notre Dame at 6-1 ATS, coinciding with the rise of the Southern California program under Pete Carroll.
If your head is spinning from looking at all those contradictory trends, here’s how Brian Fremeau’s efficiency stats rank the two teams in the 120-team FBS as they approach Saturday’s matchup.
USC: No. 8 overall, No. 47 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 34 field position
ND: No. 21 overall, No. 2 offense, No. 54 defense, No. 103 field position
These numbers suggest slight advantages for the USC offense lining up against the Notre Dame defense, and again when the ball switches sides. The big advantage is in field position, the domain in part of special teams. The Irish have only returned six punts for a total of 66 yards. USC has returned 13 for 216 yards.
Field position and the continued maturation of freshman QB Matt Barkley should give the Trojans the edge here – but can they beat the spread? Consensus reports have two-thirds of bettors saying yes, although 81 percent of moneyline bettors preferred Notre Dame at a healthy +300.
No. 4 Virginia Tech at No. 19 Georgia Tech (+3, 52.5)
Saturday, Oct 17, 6:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN2
The betting odds have been on the side of the dogs this year at 171-153-3 (52.8 percent), but home dogs haven’t enjoyed any of that small profit at 51-50-2 ATS (50.5 percent). That didn’t stop the Hokies (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) from stomping a 31-7 mudhole in visiting Miami-Florida (-2.5) three weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets (5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) will be home dogs for the first time on Saturday; they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight games getting points at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Virginia Tech is on an 11-4 ATS rampage as a road chalk.
Georgia Tech has enjoyed success this year despite having the No. 106-ranked team in defensive efficiency. The saving grace has been the Jackets running game, fourth overall in the FBS with 277 yards per game and fourth in attempts at 318 (53 per game). The only other teams with more attempts: Air Force, Navy and Army. If you haven’t spotted the common thread yet, Jackets coach Paul Johnson runs the same flexbone offense that he used to put Navy back on the map before leaving for Atlanta in 2008. GT is 14-5 SU and 10-5-1 ATS since Johnson’s arrival.
Virginia Tech has the much better defense (No. 18 in the FBS), but it will be challenged to figure out how to handle the flexbone. The Jackets covered the spread in last year’s matchup, losing 20-17 as 6.5-point road dogs. The consensus is 83 percent on the Hokies at press time, but 56 percent on GT at +130. Some of the books have had VT at -3.5 here and there this week; as always, shop smart.
It's almost like Midseason Bowl Saturday with this week's college football schedule. First up is the Red River Rivalry in Dallas between OU and Texas which should segue nicely to Pete Carroll's USC Trojans traveling to face the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus. And the day culminates with a key ACC contest in Atlanta where Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech.
In theory, all four of the one-loss teams in this week’s college football betting preview are still in position to go to the BCS title game. In theory.
The stark reality is that only two teams can play, and having just one loss on your record doesn’t guarantee you jack. That makes every game a must-win-with-quality for all four of these big-name programs.
No. 6 USC at No. 25 Notre Dame (+10, 50)
Saturday, Oct 17, 3:30 p.m. (ET) NBC
It’s too bad you can’t fade both these pubic darlings at the same time. The Trojans (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have slumped through October in each of the past four seasons, but to their credit, they did crush California 30-3 in their last game to improve to 5-12 ATS in their last 17 October contests. The Fighting Irish (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in October, but haven’t covered in their last four games this year. They barely even won their last three:
Sept. 19: Michigan State 30, Notre Dame 33 (MSU +10.5)
Sept. 26: Notre Dame 24, Purdue 21 (Purdue +6.5)
Oct. 3: Washington 30, Notre Dame 37 (OT, Washington +12)
The Irish are now 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in South Bend against winning road teams. The Trojans are winners almost everywhere they go, but getting to the pay window is another matter. USC is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as a road chalk. And yet the Trojans are on a commanding seven-game winning streak against Notre Dame at 6-1 ATS, coinciding with the rise of the Southern California program under Pete Carroll.
If your head is spinning from looking at all those contradictory trends, here’s how Brian Fremeau’s efficiency stats rank the two teams in the 120-team FBS as they approach Saturday’s matchup.
USC: No. 8 overall, No. 47 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 34 field position
ND: No. 21 overall, No. 2 offense, No. 54 defense, No. 103 field position
These numbers suggest slight advantages for the USC offense lining up against the Notre Dame defense, and again when the ball switches sides. The big advantage is in field position, the domain in part of special teams. The Irish have only returned six punts for a total of 66 yards. USC has returned 13 for 216 yards.
Field position and the continued maturation of freshman QB Matt Barkley should give the Trojans the edge here – but can they beat the spread? Consensus reports have two-thirds of bettors saying yes, although 81 percent of moneyline bettors preferred Notre Dame at a healthy +300.
No. 4 Virginia Tech at No. 19 Georgia Tech (+3, 52.5)
Saturday, Oct 17, 6:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN2
The betting odds have been on the side of the dogs this year at 171-153-3 (52.8 percent), but home dogs haven’t enjoyed any of that small profit at 51-50-2 ATS (50.5 percent). That didn’t stop the Hokies (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) from stomping a 31-7 mudhole in visiting Miami-Florida (-2.5) three weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets (5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) will be home dogs for the first time on Saturday; they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight games getting points at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Virginia Tech is on an 11-4 ATS rampage as a road chalk.
Georgia Tech has enjoyed success this year despite having the No. 106-ranked team in defensive efficiency. The saving grace has been the Jackets running game, fourth overall in the FBS with 277 yards per game and fourth in attempts at 318 (53 per game). The only other teams with more attempts: Air Force, Navy and Army. If you haven’t spotted the common thread yet, Jackets coach Paul Johnson runs the same flexbone offense that he used to put Navy back on the map before leaving for Atlanta in 2008. GT is 14-5 SU and 10-5-1 ATS since Johnson’s arrival.
Virginia Tech has the much better defense (No. 18 in the FBS), but it will be challenged to figure out how to handle the flexbone. The Jackets covered the spread in last year’s matchup, losing 20-17 as 6.5-point road dogs. The consensus is 83 percent on the Hokies at press time, but 56 percent on GT at +130. Some of the books have had VT at -3.5 here and there this week; as always, shop smart.
