HARRY'S WEEK #7 "TOTAL PACKAGE" (15-9 on the season)

[Harry N. Lloyd]

After Columbus Day you really have to keep your eye on the weather forecast, when trying to predict overs and unders. In general, I think many of the high-scoring shootouts of weeks prior have skewed some of the power-ratings and it's a good time of the year to start sniffing around for attractive "unders". That said, the following are my plays for this weekend....

WEST VIRGINIA/MARSHALL - UNDER 53

The Mountaineers are averaging 5.0 ypc and the Thundering Herd are allowing 5.1 ypc. That's bad news for Marshall. West Virginia is going to run the ball down their throats all day. The forecast is calling for game time temps in the high 30s with light drizzle. It's gonna be raw and smashmouth is the flavor of the day. This total will end up in the low 40s.

TCU/COLORADO STATE - UNDER 50

This one's got nothing to do with weather, as it's forecasted to be warm and pleasant. This under is all about the Horned Frog's defense. The TCU defense is ranked 7th in the country, excelling equally against the run and pass. Colorado State will not be able to dent this D on the ground. Their only hope is through the air, where they are slightly more proficient. TCU will try to control the clock by running the ball and keeping the Rams off the field. TCU, by about 31-10.

NOTRE DAME/USC - OVER 48-

It might surprise you to learn that Jimmy Clausen is the highest ranked passer in the country. Like him or not, the kid is having a great year. Today he faces the toughest defense he'll see this season. The Trojans, ranked 6th nationally in team defense, have been slightly less stout through the air than on the ground. So Notre Dame, already averaging over 32 ppg, will air it out. That makes for a slow game, lots of clock stoppages. The Trojans are gonna score their points too. This Notre Dame defense has been remarkably bad, ranked 100th out of 120 teams. Their weak link has been pass defense, as they give up over 260 ypg through the air. This game has shootout written all over it. Go over!

MICHIGAN STATE/NORTHWESTERN - UNDER 53

The Spartans are clearly the better of the two teams today. They've had a boatload of injuries to their RBs and QBs. They are what you would say 'dinged up.' They'll feel those aches and pains a bit more, as the temps should be in the high 30s. I look for the Spartans to play this game close to the vest. No fireworks in this one.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

2009 season "totals" 15-9
2009 season "sides" 25-16

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boys, a couple of late totals plays for you to consider.

UCLA/CAL - OVER 44

Just got a hunch that these two teams are gonna open it up today. They've both been in a funk, particularly on offense, so I look for them to try a much more aggressive approach. Cal had last week off and worked on revving up their offense. UCLA has to try something as they've proven that they can't get in done with their defense alone. Over!

SMU/NAVY - OVER 53-

Maybe the big boys know something that I don't because many of the better-known sports services are releasing SMU as the big play today. Earlier in the week the Mustangs were getting 8 points, but now they're just getting 6 or 6-. Well they're up against one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the country. The Middies put up 63 points last week, rushed for over 400 yds. and 9 TDs. Come on....they're hitting on all cylinders. They're gonna score tonight against this mediocre rush defense. SMU's only hope is to open up their passing attack and try to trade punches. SMU passes up and down the field, the Middies run up and down the field....and this one goes well over!

Good luck,
Harry