Three Trends I see that may play a roll in tonights game

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 05:36 PM

You're forgetting that Ark St has somewhat a decent defense and UL-Monroe has a poor defense.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by iLogan

You're forgetting that Ark St has somewhat a decent defense and UL-Monroe has a poor defense.

I'm not forgetting that. I am giving trends that look solid.

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by iLogan

You're forgetting that Ark St has somewhat a decent defense and UL-Monroe has a poor defense.

From what I've checked out, Ark St's defense is poor as well.

**nickelchip** · 10-13-09, 05:49 PM

You forgot ARK ST, is 12-4 ATS after back to back losses! For what these useless stats are worth.

**mgcolby** · 10-13-09, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

From what I've checked out, Ark St's defense is poor as well.

71st in total defense and 50th in points. But they played Iowa, Nebraska and Troy. ULM has played garbage outside of Texas week 1 which is always iffy for college, remember Texas struggled for a half against Wyoming. And Arizona State 3 weeks ago.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 05:53 PM

Don't cry when AK ST goes down

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

71st in total defense and 50th in points. But they played Iowa, Nebraska and Troy. ULM has played garbage outside of Texas week 1 which is always iffy for college, remember Texas struggled for a half against Wyoming. And Arizona State 3 weeks ago.

Ark St averaged 470 yards per game against vs. Neb/Troy/Iow. I'm guessing their 71st ranking is being bolstered by their game against MVST who's not D1. There is no basis to conclude that "Ark. state has a defense".

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 06:00 PM

I am trying to help you guys, but hey do whatever you want, its your money

**RICHIE801** · 10-13-09, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by pimike

I am trying to help you guys, but hey do whatever you want, its your money

The simple fact that it opened up as a pick em' and ended up UL Monroe -2 or -2.5 at some places and this was before the public was betting ULM, tells me sharp money is on ULM and they may be they play tonight

I was thinking under but the line is down to 51 now I may just sit this one out...

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Ark St averaged 470 yards per game against vs. Neb/Troy/Iow. I'm guessing their 71st ranking is being bolstered by their game against MVST who's not D1. There is no basis to conclude that "Ark. state has a defense".

Actualy there is, look closer...

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 06:21 PM

Actually, there's not.

Nor is there much use for such posts. If you think you have an angle, then put it up there to support what you're saying.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Actually, there's not.

Nor is there much use for such posts. If you think you have an angle, then put it up there to support what you're saying.

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Actually, there's not.

Nor is there much use for such posts. If you think you have an angle, then put it up there to support what you're saying.

Repost by mgcolby from this thread:

Hard to say unless you look at the run defenses that ULM has played. But based on numbers alone ULM has a significant advantage 208.6 to 162.8. Although ULM played two of the worst rush defenses in the Sun Belt conference in FAU and FIU. FAU allows 225.3 rushing yards per game and FIU allows 245 rushing yards per game. Against FAU they ran for 157 yards and agains FIU they ran for 304 yards. They also ran for 345 yards against Texas Southern. Those two 300 yards games really padded their average. For the record Arkansas St allows 106 rushing yards per game.

Arkansas St allowed the following rushing yards in their 3 big games:

Nebraska: 136
Troy: 134
Iowa: 124

I'll be surprised if ULM gaines a 100 yards on the ground.

Arkansas St has played Nebraska, Troy and Iowa in three straight games. Arkansas allowed 38, 30 and 24 respectively in those games. ULM has played Arizona State, FAU and FIU over the past 3 weeks and allowed 38, 25 and 35 points.

Like I said Ark St has a decent defense and is much better than UL-Monroe's defense PERIOD.

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by pimike

Don't cry when AK ST goes down

Cry? Lol why? Grow up, you can't win 'em all. Losses are to be expected.

**stocker08** · 10-13-09, 06:32 PM

Trends and Traps are imaginary. All in your head.

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 06:34 PM

I suspect the reason they gave up so few yards on the ground is because all those teams effectively scorched them in the air. 470 yards a game doesn't lie; passing yards count just as much as rushing yards. Giving up 90 yards on the ground isn't great if the other team puts up over 350 in the air. There is still nothing to support that Ark St's defense is "decent". However, I appreciate that you produced the numbers though.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by stocker08

Trends and Traps are imaginary. All in your head.

I must have missed something. Who said anything about traps?

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

I suspect the reason they gave up so few yards on the ground is because all those teams effectively scorched them in the air. 470 yards a game doesn't lie; passing yards count just as much as rushing yards. Giving up 90 yards on the ground isn't great if the other team puts up over 350 in the air. There is still nothing to support that Ark St's defense is "decent". However, I appreciate that you produced the numbers though.

True, but it's going to be raining cats and dogs and will greatly effect the passing game.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by iLogan

True, but it's going to be raining cats and dogs and will greatly effect the passing game.

In all fairness anyone who fights about this coin toss game is crazy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is a small play just for fun.

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by iLogan

True, but it's going to be raining cats and dogs and will greatly effect the passing game.

Moving the goal posts. The question is "Is Ark St's defense decent"? The weather tonight doesn't change their defense's quality.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Moving the goal posts. The question is "Is Ark St's defense decent"? The weather tonight doesn't change their defense's quality.

Another great response.

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Moving the goal posts. The question is "Is Ark St's defense decent"? The weather tonight doesn't change their defense's quality.

WTH, I just supplied my reasoning above. YES, Ark St's defense is decent vs UL-Monroe's offense and more specifically the run defense which is a big factor when it's going to be raining tonight.

15 Mins to Kickoff

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 06:43 PM

Good luck everybody whatever you play. I will be working tonight. So hopefully it will be a good one.

I do Believe however there is a reason why Vegas has the home team a small FAV.

However Don't bet a lot on this one..

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by iLogan

WTH, I just supplied my reasoning above. YES, Ark St's defense is decent vs UL-Monroe's offense and more specifically the run defense which is a big factor when it's going to be raining tonight.

15 Mins to Kickoff

This is completely different from saying "Ark St's defense is decent". That said, I've got UL-M +1 as I jumped on them to open, so I suppose I could root for a happy middle UL-M 1 point win.

**iLogan** · 10-13-09, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

This is completely different from saying "Ark St's defense is decent". That said, I've got UL-M +1 as I jumped on them to open, so I suppose I could root for a happy middle UL-M 1 point win.

ROFLMAO, you HAD to know that's what I meant...

**RICHIE801** · 10-13-09, 07:03 PM

ULM -2 and under 52 here.

**mgcolby** · 10-13-09, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

I suspect the reason they gave up so few yards on the ground is because all those teams effectively scorched them in the air. 470 yards a game doesn't lie; passing yards count just as much as rushing yards. Giving up 90 yards on the ground isn't great if the other team puts up over 350 in the air. There is still nothing to support that Ark St's defense is "decent". However, I appreciate that you produced the numbers though.

Just adding some more stats about ULM's passing game. Below are their passing yards per game:

Arizona State: 126 (136 rushing yards)
FIU: 273 (304 rushing yards)
FAU: 207 (157 yards rushing) (FAU's defens is 110th in total defense and 114th in points allowed) Not to keep beating on FAU but they allow an average or 222.5 passing yards per game.

Don't see much of a chance for ULM to scorch them through the air. Especially when you factor in the rain and Arkansas should be focused on stopping the run. Also Revell has has thrown at least 1 int in every game except the FIU game.

**JimmyJet** · 10-13-09, 07:38 PM

no bet....got home from work too late...hehehehe...good luck gamblers

**nickelchip** · 10-13-09, 08:26 PM

Congrats ULM backers!!

**infamousbacardi** · 10-13-09, 08:38 PM

Looks good PIMIKE...looks like you nailed it brother.

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

Looks good PIMIKE...looks like you nailed it brother.

Yes sir I did.

It was simple to see why the Linesmakers made them a favorite.

Congrates those who followed!!!!!!!!!!

**pimike** · 10-13-09, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by pimike

Ok I see three strong trends that make me lean towards La-Monroe tonight.

1. Arkansa State is 0-10 against teams that have a revenge factor. La-Monroe lost to them last year, Watch out!

2. Arkansas State is 0-4 agains teams coming off a break. There last game was October 03, 2009. Watch out!

3. Arkansas is 1-9 coming off a game where they covered in double digits as a dog. They lost to Iowa in a close one. Watch out!

I believe the line here tonight is correct.

La-Monroe -2

Make that 0-11/1-10/0-5

**WOK** · 10-14-09, 04:51 PM

I wished I saw your pick before i made my play. Do you have any thoughts about Tulsa and Boise? I live about an hour from tulsa. It's cold and drizzling. Not sure how it will affect the outcome. Thanks in advance. Wok

**JimmyJet** · 10-14-09, 04:55 PM

How do you see the Boise St game....the game Tulsa played against Oklahoma leads ne to believe blowout tonight favoring Boise St.