The Spartan's Week 7 card....

**pinnacle212** · 10-13-09, 11:22 AM

Miss. State and Georgia are Georgia straight up. No teasing or anything.

**Dana4U** · 10-13-09, 12:47 PM

What do you think about Central Michigan laying 6.5 to Western Michigan?

**pags11** · 10-13-09, 01:42 PM

GL MSUspartans...

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-13-09, 02:42 PM

Dana, if I had to play the game, I would play CMU. I think they are 10-14 points better than WMU, even on the road. However, Western was very good last week at Toledo and it is a huge rivalry game. Some would depend on weather.......

Pags, thanks, I appreciate it.

**ImBettor** · 10-13-09, 04:03 PM

rookie sports bettor here with a couple of questions and I figure this is a good spot to ask them

I come from a pretty strong background in finding +EV and -EV plays (I'm a professional poker player). I see a normal amount of juice when I play money lines and spreads. When I look at parlays all I can see are sucker bets because of the ridiculous cut on your expected value. Are teasers the same way as parlays in that they are seen as value juicing bets? Could you provide your reasoning in making those types of bets?

**Cougar Bait** · 10-13-09, 04:06 PM

A lot riding on Wisconsin there MSU, but you are usually pretty good with the teasers. GL this week

**Dana4U** · 10-13-09, 04:40 PM

Thanks MSU .... I think I am going to play CMU.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-13-09, 06:26 PM

Added: Ark St +3 for 1 unit
Teaser: Ark St +9.5 and under 58.5 for 1 unit

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-13-09, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

A lot riding on Wisconsin there MSU, but you are usually pretty good with the teasers. GL this week

Very true, Coug, a lot on the Badgers. I see a game that I like and I tend to ride it........no doubt it could burn me.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-14-09, 07:24 AM

1-1 for me on Tuesday night.

* 1 unit on Tulsa +9.5
* Added 2 units on Mississppi State -3 (bought point and a half)

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-15-09, 07:32 AM

2-1 for the week so far. Up 0.75 units. Will be playing tonights game for sure.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-15-09, 01:50 PM

Went back and forth on this one all day. Locking in this 1 unit teaser.

SFlorida +9 and under 55.5

**TheU** · 10-15-09, 01:52 PM

Hey spartan. You seem pretty confident Wisconsin will beat Iowa outright. I was kinda leary about that game but may take Wisky in a 10 point teaser. Here is who I'm thinking of taking.

Wisconsin +7.5
Minn. Gophers +27.5
South Carolina +27

What do you think about this? Thinking about going $500 on it.

**patsfan2727** · 10-15-09, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by ImBettor

rookie sports bettor here with a couple of questions and I figure this is a good spot to ask them

I come from a pretty strong background in finding +EV and -EV plays (I'm a professional poker player). I see a normal amount of juice when I play money lines and Spreads. When I look at parlays all I can see are sucker bets because of the ridiculous cut on your expected value. Are teasers the same way as parlays in that they are seen as value juicing bets? Could you provide your reasoning in making those types of bets?

I think teasers can be sucker bets if you arent careful about which side you tease.
Teasing from 2.5 to 8.5 for example, crosses the 3 and 7, two critical numbers..
or like last night I teased boise to -3 because I figured they'd win but I didnt want to get banged by a backdoor (which happened)
Anyway, just realize on a 2 game 6 pt parlay you're paying -110 juice, which I assume to be about the same as two -200 favorites parlayed....
meaning that if you wouldnt bet the teased line straight up at -200, then you shouldn't play the teaser... thats the conclusion I have come to after winnig and losing many teasers....

For example, if a team is -10, teased by 6 points goes to -4....if you wouldnt bet that team straight up -4 at -200 odds, then dont put it as part of your tease...

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-15-09, 02:20 PM

patsfan, good points on your teasers.

I prefer to play 7 pointers, preferably in lines where teams are around -8 to -5 (meaning I just need them to win) or from -3 to +4, where I get the better of games decided by around a FG.

TheU, big fan of that teaser. I think you will cash it.

**mcbaseball10** · 10-15-09, 02:30 PM

You seem to have a very strong feeling on Miss State, what is pushing you in that direction? Only asking because I have been following Midd Tenn State and think last game at Troy was not the same MTSU team I had seen rest of the season. I have not seen Miss St. play at all so just curious on your takes. Thanks and BOL to you this week.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-15-09, 02:40 PM

I was on MTSU in that game and they certainly did not play as they had in previous games.

In the Bulldogs last road game, they won in relatively convincing fashion at Vandy. I know, not the best team in America, but winning on the road in the SEC is winning on the road in the SEC. Played LSU, VTech, and Houston very closely the last three weeks. I think Mullen and staff have them on the right path and this is the type of game that is very important for the program. Winning those games "you are supposed to win" can help build the program that isn't quite ready to beat the Florida's and Alabama's of the world. They are 6th in the SEC in scoring offense at almost 27 ppg and nearly 400 ypg. I think they will be able to control the clock and run the football.

I was impressed with the beatdown MTSU gave Memphis in their last home win. I think they are going to be playing a team of athletes more like the Clemson team that beat them up pretty good in week 1. MTSU giving up 180 per game, mostly to teams who I think have an inferior ground game to Miss St, was also a big factor in my decision.

The Bulldogs athletes, my thoughts on their coaching staff, and their ability to run the football are three big reasons for my play.

**mcbaseball10** · 10-15-09, 02:59 PM

Thanks for the info sparty

, I will wait on this one for awhile before deciding whether to bet on it.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-15-09, 05:41 PM

No problem, **. Best of luck with whatever you play.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-15-09, 08:13 PM

Added Pitt -3 (bought half) for 2 units.

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-17-09, 08:44 AM

OK, play for today,

Originally posted by MSUSpartan32

Added Pitt -3 (bought half) for 2 units.

3-2 and up 1.5 units while dabbling in weeknight games. Final card for Saturday:

* Pags' plays at 4 units
* 2 Unit plays
1. Miss St -3
2. ML Parlay - Miss St and Wisconsin
3. Wake +7.5
4. Teasers: Wisconsin +5 / Kentucky +20.5
Wisconsin +5 / Georgia ML
Ohio St -7 / N'western +21 / CMU ML
NIllinois ML / Idaho ML

**Cougar Bait** · 10-17-09, 09:07 AM

Looks good MSU. I have no stake in the Wisky game so I'll be pulling for ya. BOL today

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-17-09, 09:22 AM

Thanks, Coug. Same to you. Worst thing is that the Badgers play at the same time as my Spartans and the same time as Texas vs. Oklahoma so I probably won't see much....