Carroll, USC Trojans face tough task at Cal Bears
Pete Carroll knows his USC Trojans face a tough road if they are going to continue their run of outright or shared Pac-10 football titles. That road will be especially tough this week when the Men of Troy travel to Cal to meet Jeff Tedford's Bears on Saturday night. But first up on the Week 5 schedule is an SEC thriller down in Athens, GA, where Joe Cox and the Bulldogs entertain Les Miles and the LSU Tigers.
It’s Week 5 of the college football season, and we’re blessed to have two very important rivalry games on the schedule. But first, a Sam Bradford follow-up: He reportedly won’t be playing for the Oklahoma Sooners this Saturday against the Miami Hurricanes. Some books had the betting odds creeping up from Oklahoma –7 to Oklahoma –8 on news that Bradford might play. Let’s see if the action swings in the other direction when the clock strikes five on Friday.
No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia (-3, 51.5)
Saturday, Oct 3, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Last week, everyone and his grandma pegged the California Golden Bears as overrated at No. 4. This week, it’s the LSU Tigers (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Tigers came very close to losing to the Mississippi State Bulldogs (+12 at home) before pulling out a 30-26 victory. Brian Fremeau’s influential efficiency ratings have LSU ranked No. 36 in the nation with Georgia at No. 24. The running game has been especially poor, gaining just 30 yards against Mississippi State and 130.2 yards per game (3.8 yards per carry) on the season.
It would normally take a better effort on the ground to defeat Georgia (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS). However, these Bulldogs have had their problems this year on defense. They’ve collected just five sacks in four games and will be vulnerable in the secondary against LSU wideouts Brandon LaFell (20 catches, five TDs) and Terrance Toliver (17 catches, two TDs). Freshman QB Jordan Jefferson is taking advantage of this bounty with seven TD throws and just one interception on the season.
The turnover ratio has been very much in LSU’s favor up to this point. The Bulldogs have committed 12 turnovers, including five picks (along with nine TDs) by Joe Cox, who no longer has the protection of left tackle Trinton Sturdivant (torn ACL). Cox was stricken with the flu to start the season and has been hot and cold all year. He threw five TD passes against the Arkansas Razorbacks – only three other Georgia QBs have pulled off that feat – but just one in last week’s 20-17 win over the visiting Arizona State Sun Devils (+13.5). Cox is in for a long afternoon against the imposing LSU defense, both in the trenches and downfield.
I personally like the under in this situation, as does 72 percent of the betting public according to the consensus reports at press time. Almost 60 percent were on LSU against the spread and a mighty 96 percent on the moneyline with the Tigers floating around +140. There will be sunny skies over Sanford Stadium with temperatures in the mid-70s.
No. 7 USC at No. 24 California (+4.5, 47.5)
Saturday, Oct 3, 8:00 p.m. ABC
So the Bears went to Eugene (not Corvallis) and got thumped 42-3 by the Oregon Ducks (+5.5) to fall to 3-1 SU and ATS. It would have helped the Cal cause if the receivers could have held onto the ball, but that wouldn’t have made up for the severe beating the Bears defense took. That’ll happen when you play the highest scoring team in the FBS two years running.
The USC offense appears to be in good hands with freshman QB Matt Barkley. He was on the sidelines with a sore shoulder when the Trojans lost 16-13 to the Washington Huskies (+20.5 at home), but he returned and performed admirably in last week’s 27-6 victory over the Washington State Cougars (+45.5 on the road). Barkley has the luxury of knowing his defense leads the FBS with 18 sacks and is outstanding against the run, as well.
It’s becoming abundantly clear that Big Chalk is destroying USC’s economy – the Trojans are on a 9-15 ATS slide when favored by at least 20 points. Spreads this small are a lot more manageable for the Trojans. They’re 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games when favored between 3.5 and 10 points, as is the case in Saturday’s matchup. The consensus reports show 71 percent support for the Trojans; their offense will enjoy mostly sunny skies with the mercury dipping slightly into the mid-60s.
Pete Carroll knows his USC Trojans face a tough road if they are going to continue their run of outright or shared Pac-10 football titles. That road will be especially tough this week when the Men of Troy travel to Cal to meet Jeff Tedford's Bears on Saturday night. But first up on the Week 5 schedule is an SEC thriller down in Athens, GA, where Joe Cox and the Bulldogs entertain Les Miles and the LSU Tigers.
It’s Week 5 of the college football season, and we’re blessed to have two very important rivalry games on the schedule. But first, a Sam Bradford follow-up: He reportedly won’t be playing for the Oklahoma Sooners this Saturday against the Miami Hurricanes. Some books had the betting odds creeping up from Oklahoma –7 to Oklahoma –8 on news that Bradford might play. Let’s see if the action swings in the other direction when the clock strikes five on Friday.
No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia (-3, 51.5)
Saturday, Oct 3, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Last week, everyone and his grandma pegged the California Golden Bears as overrated at No. 4. This week, it’s the LSU Tigers (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Tigers came very close to losing to the Mississippi State Bulldogs (+12 at home) before pulling out a 30-26 victory. Brian Fremeau’s influential efficiency ratings have LSU ranked No. 36 in the nation with Georgia at No. 24. The running game has been especially poor, gaining just 30 yards against Mississippi State and 130.2 yards per game (3.8 yards per carry) on the season.
It would normally take a better effort on the ground to defeat Georgia (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS). However, these Bulldogs have had their problems this year on defense. They’ve collected just five sacks in four games and will be vulnerable in the secondary against LSU wideouts Brandon LaFell (20 catches, five TDs) and Terrance Toliver (17 catches, two TDs). Freshman QB Jordan Jefferson is taking advantage of this bounty with seven TD throws and just one interception on the season.
The turnover ratio has been very much in LSU’s favor up to this point. The Bulldogs have committed 12 turnovers, including five picks (along with nine TDs) by Joe Cox, who no longer has the protection of left tackle Trinton Sturdivant (torn ACL). Cox was stricken with the flu to start the season and has been hot and cold all year. He threw five TD passes against the Arkansas Razorbacks – only three other Georgia QBs have pulled off that feat – but just one in last week’s 20-17 win over the visiting Arizona State Sun Devils (+13.5). Cox is in for a long afternoon against the imposing LSU defense, both in the trenches and downfield.
I personally like the under in this situation, as does 72 percent of the betting public according to the consensus reports at press time. Almost 60 percent were on LSU against the spread and a mighty 96 percent on the moneyline with the Tigers floating around +140. There will be sunny skies over Sanford Stadium with temperatures in the mid-70s.
No. 7 USC at No. 24 California (+4.5, 47.5)
Saturday, Oct 3, 8:00 p.m. ABC
So the Bears went to Eugene (not Corvallis) and got thumped 42-3 by the Oregon Ducks (+5.5) to fall to 3-1 SU and ATS. It would have helped the Cal cause if the receivers could have held onto the ball, but that wouldn’t have made up for the severe beating the Bears defense took. That’ll happen when you play the highest scoring team in the FBS two years running.
The USC offense appears to be in good hands with freshman QB Matt Barkley. He was on the sidelines with a sore shoulder when the Trojans lost 16-13 to the Washington Huskies (+20.5 at home), but he returned and performed admirably in last week’s 27-6 victory over the Washington State Cougars (+45.5 on the road). Barkley has the luxury of knowing his defense leads the FBS with 18 sacks and is outstanding against the run, as well.
It’s becoming abundantly clear that Big Chalk is destroying USC’s economy – the Trojans are on a 9-15 ATS slide when favored by at least 20 points. Spreads this small are a lot more manageable for the Trojans. They’re 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games when favored between 3.5 and 10 points, as is the case in Saturday’s matchup. The consensus reports show 71 percent support for the Trojans; their offense will enjoy mostly sunny skies with the mercury dipping slightly into the mid-60s.
