One play I LOVE -- TOLEDO - 4

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    One play I LOVE -- TOLEDO - 4
    Wow. Hear is another line that just leaves you scratching your head wondering where in the world they came up with this number.

    How in the world can Toledo only be a 4 point favorite at Ball State this weekend. This is like The Saints going to St. Louis or Detroit and only be a 1 point favorite. It just doesnt make any sense at all. Toledo will cover this spread EASILY.

    Toledo comes into this game 2-2, but they have played a team far better then Ball State every week. They lost to Purdue 52-31. In that game QB Aaron Opelt passed for 423 yards. He has passed for over 1200 yards now in 4 games, thats an average of over 300 per game. He even passed for 200 yeard against Ohio State.

    No team that Toledo has played has been able to shut this offense down. Toledo had 624 total yards of offense against Colorado. They had 600 Against Purdue. Another 566 against Florida International. Dont laugh about Florida International, they are a much much better team than Ball State.

    The Rockets have a dual threat Offense here. QB OPelt is very good. They have 2 good WR in Eric Page and Stephen Williams. And RB DaJuane Collins has been getting good yardage on the ground against much stronger competition than he will be facing Saturday.

    This game is a HUGE step down in Competition for Toledo and a Huge step up for Ball State.

    Now Ball State comes in 0-4 and this team has played 3 cupcakes that they should have beaten with ease. This team has given up more than twice as many yards as they have gotten this year. In every game except the Army game, they were outyarded more than 2 to 1. Against New Hamphsire, Ball State managed 127 total yards. Yes 127 total yards. They managed a whopping 13 net yards rushing at home against New Hampshire. New Hampshire got 322 yards in that game. St. Francis (Pa) gave New Hampshire a better game than Ball State did.

    Ball State also played at home against North Texas, a team that many have called the worst team in College Football. as you might remember, Ball State was a 17 point favorite in that game, but never had the lead not once in the entire game. They scored a total of 10 points as a 17 point favorite. North Texas dominated the game even moreso than the 20-10 score showed. The Mean Green havent won a game since.

    Ball State has a new head coach who now is something like 2-36-1 all time as a head coach and 0-5 since taking over at Ball State. They have a new QB in Page who has been throwing for around 100 yards a game against crap competition. RB Lewis has not been able to do anything this year without Davis and the strong WR core they had last year.

    This Ball State team is miserable, and dont let the fact that they only lost by 24 to Auburn fool you. This team is 0-4 against 3 crap teams. The Cardinals are horrible.

    The Rockets have played Purdue, Ohio State, Colorado, and FIU. This week will seem like a high school game to them. The Rockets will roll Ball State hear easily covering the 4.
  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #2
    Stats from the North Texas vs. Ball State game. Remember this game was at Ball State and North Texas has been called by many the worst team in Div 1 College Football.


    First Downs - North Texas 27 BSU 16 ( BSU got 3 by penalty, NT Got 0 by Penalty)
    Total Yards - North Texas 612 BSU 309
    Pass Yards- North Texas 316 BSU 140
    Possession Time - North Texas 37:18 BSU 22:42

    North Texas was penalized more than double what BSU was and North Texas missed 2 field Goals. If not for that this is even more than a 20-10 loss.

    The Stat numbers in the New Hampshire game are even more one sided in New Hampshires favor.

    Both those games were played at Ball State.

    This team is bad, real bad.
    Comment
    • homerbush
      SBR MVP
      • 11-17-08
      • 2317

      #3
      Originally posted by nobs
      Wow. Hear is another line that just leaves you scratching your head wondering where in the world they came up with this number.

      How in the world can Toledo only be a 4 point favorite at Ball State this weekend. This is like The Saints going to St. Louis or Detroit and only be a 1 point favorite. It just doesnt make any sense at all. Toledo will cover this spread EASILY.

      Toledo comes into this game 2-2, but they have played a team far better then Ball State every week. They lost to Purdue 52-31. In that game QB Aaron Opelt passed for 423 yards. He has passed for over 1200 yards now in 4 games, thats an average of over 300 per game. He even passed for 200 yeard against Ohio State.

      No team that Toledo has played has been able to shut this offense down. Toledo had 624 total yards of offense against Colorado. They had 600 Against Purdue. Another 566 against Florida International. Dont laugh about Florida International, they are a much much better team than Ball State.

      The Rockets have a dual threat Offense here. QB OPelt is very good. They have 2 good WR in Eric Page and Stephen Williams. And RB DaJuane Collins has been getting good yardage on the ground against much stronger competition than he will be facing Saturday.

      This game is a HUGE step down in Competition for Toledo and a Huge step up for Ball State.

      Now Ball State comes in 0-4 and this team has played 3 cupcakes that they should have beaten with ease. This team has given up more than twice as many yards as they have gotten this year. In every game except the Army game, they were outyarded more than 2 to 1. Against New Hamphsire, Ball State managed 127 total yards. Yes 127 total yards. They managed a whopping 13 net yards rushing at home against New Hampshire. New Hampshire got 322 yards in that game. St. Francis (Pa) gave New Hampshire a better game than Ball State did.

      Ball State also played at home against North Texas, a team that many have called the worst team in College Football. as you might remember, Ball State was a 17 point favorite in that game, but never had the lead not once in the entire game. They scored a total of 10 points as a 17 point favorite. North Texas dominated the game even moreso than the 20-10 score showed. The Mean Green havent won a game since.

      Ball State has a new head coach who now is something like 2-36-1 all time as a head coach and 0-5 since taking over at Ball State. They have a new QB in Page who has been throwing for around 100 yards a game against crap competition. RB Lewis has not been able to do anything this year without Davis and the strong WR core they had last year.

      This Ball State team is miserable, and dont let the fact that they only lost by 24 to Auburn fool you. This team is 0-4 against 3 crap teams. The Cardinals are horrible.

      The Rockets have played Purdue, Ohio State, Colorado, and FIU. This week will seem like a high school game to them. The Rockets will roll Ball State hear easily covering the 4.
      I agree with all of it. Ball State is now one of the worst FBS (1-A) teams. Somehow being an OSU and CU fan and gambling on Purdue I have watched Toledo 3 times this year.
      Comment
      • Ralphie1412
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-29-08
        • 13963

        #4
        agreed, i was just looking at this game.
        "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
        Goat Milk
        Comment
        • spongerat
          SBR MVP
          • 10-01-08
          • 2023

          #5
          why is the line only 4 then? ball state is terrible!
          Comment
          • Ralphie1412
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-29-08
            • 13963

            #6
            Its not like Toledo is some powerhouse, they arent going to lay a touchdown+ on the road. This spread would probably be 8.5-10 if it were in Toledo.
            "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
            Goat Milk
            Comment
            • stocker08
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-25-09
              • 910

              #7
              It sure looks like a good bet to lay on toledo, but its not like they have played much better than ball state. Ball state kept up with army.....
              Comment
              • SexyMit
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-12-06
                • 6139

                #8
                I would not be surprised to see Ball St finally win a game. If it seems too good to be true it usually is!
                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                Comment
                • Cougar Bait
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-04-07
                  • 18282

                  #9
                  The Cardinals spoiled the Rockets' Homecoming Game at the Glass Bowl, 31-0 last year. Seems like perfect revenge scenario to me...plus first conference game...
                  Comment
                  • Husker36
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-02-08
                    • 3846

                    #10
                    Toledo opened at -7 and is down to -4.5! Is there something we dont know about? Injuries?
                    Comment
                    • cakasmaloy
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 08-18-09
                      • 265

                      #11
                      Originally posted by SexyMit
                      I would not be surprised to see Ball St finally win a game. If it seems too good to be true it usually is!

                      EXACTLY what i was thinking... also why would the line drop 2 pts in 2 days? it seems sketchy... i might make a play on Ball State
                      Comment
                      • Cougar Bait
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-04-07
                        • 18282

                        #12
                        Line did start at 7...and look at the betting trend...it just kept dropping...weird

                        Comment
                        • SexyMit
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-12-06
                          • 6139

                          #13
                          Ball St ML for me!
                          If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                          I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                          Comment
                          • BeatTheJerk
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 08-19-07
                            • 31794

                            #14
                            Im gonna back this team all year (Toledo) and you know what. I guarantee I will be in the positive by seasons end.
                            Comment
                            • nobs
                              Restricted User
                              • 08-31-09
                              • 4216

                              #15
                              Originally posted by SexyMit
                              I would not be surprised to see Ball St finally win a game. If it seems too good to be true it usually is!

                              The North Texas + 17 1/2 over ball state play that I posted seemed to good to be true.

                              North Texas covered by 27 1/2 points.

                              The Houston + 15 play that I posted seemed to good to be true.

                              Houston covered by 25 points

                              The Fresno State + 17 play that I posted seemed to good to be true.

                              Fresno State covered by 9 points.

                              The Middle Tennessee State +7 play that I posted seemed to good to be true

                              Middle Tennessee State covered by 11 points
                              Comment
                              • nobs
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-31-09
                                • 4216

                                #16
                                and as far as the line movement.


                                Last week the Cincinatti line went from 14 1/2 to as high as 17 1/2

                                Fresno State was about to take the lead at the start of the 4th quarter. Cincinatti didnt even cover half the 17.
                                Comment
                                • phillyhata1
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-19-08
                                  • 1571

                                  #17
                                  keep in mind when betting and in life general boys. If it looks to good to be true it usually is. If it smells like fish, and tastes like fish, well boyz its usually fish.
                                  Comment
                                  • Cougar Bait
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-04-07
                                    • 18282

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by nobs
                                    and as far as the line movement.


                                    Last week the Cincinatti line went from 14 1/2 to as high as 17 1/2

                                    Fresno State was about to take the lead at the start of the 4th quarter. Cincinatti didnt even cover half the 17.
                                    Yeah, I had Fresno last week and Toledo still made my card this week. I just couldn't turn it down at 4.5
                                    Comment
                                    • Joe_Shabadoo
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 09-17-09
                                      • 607

                                      #19
                                      There are a number of things that I can really agree with now when trying to find some sticking points made by Phil Steele concerning the Rockets:

                                      - Their experience as a team has really shown through, especially on the offensive line, and in the operation of their 3-3-5 'D'

                                      - Their offensive line is one of, if not the most talented in the MAC, and, so that they are not solely categorized with the "MAC" caveat --- Toledo has produced a fair number of solid NFL O-line prospects

                                      - Toledo's LT is damn good. I can't remember his name though (Van Der Meeuwen???)




                                      Anyway, yeah, with Ball State only being +4 means I will have to really look at this game more carefully now.
                                      Comment
                                      • punishthebookie
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 09-30-09
                                        • 2

                                        #20
                                        Seems way too easy doesn't it?
                                        Comment
                                        • nobs
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 08-31-09
                                          • 4216

                                          #21
                                          yeah yeah if it smells like fish or seems to good to be true then it must be.

                                          Another week of doubters and at the end just one more winner.

                                          Hmmm Ball state getting 4 1/2 points seemed to good to be true ????

                                          No, Ball State laying 21 1/2 against North Texas was the one play that seemed to good to be true. That play that smelled so much like fish only won by 31 1/2 points.

                                          Lol.

                                          Keep on guessing on the nationally televised ranked teams boys and I will just keep playing these "smells like fish", "to good to be true" plays.

                                          7 plays posted on this board

                                          RECORD 7-0
                                          Comment
                                          • Cougar Bait
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-04-07
                                            • 18282

                                            #22
                                            Yeah I cashed it too...but it wasn't an easy win. It was a crazy game. I'll take the money though, don't get me wrong. Would have been pissed if I had gone with Ball St. They crumbled like a cracker...at home no less.
                                            Comment
                                            • 20Four7
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 04-08-07
                                              • 6703

                                              #23
                                              Once again Ball state bucket hooped me...... they should have won this outright......
                                              Comment
                                              • nobs
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 08-31-09
                                                • 4216

                                                #24
                                                Toledo 6 turnovers and penalized over 100 yeards more than Ball State, yet they still cover.
                                                Comment
                                                • Cougar Bait
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-04-07
                                                  • 18282

                                                  #25
                                                  Less than 3 minutes left, Ball St. drives the length of the field and score with 42 seconds left, then gets a 2 point conversion. Toledo throws up a hail mary with 27 seconds left on the clock to a wide open receiver for a TD. This game could easily have gone the other way. Like I said, happy to have the money and to have been on the right side, but it was one fukked up game at the end there.
                                                  Comment
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