What are your thoughts on BOISE STATE (-7 1/2) vs. FRESNO State. FRIDAY GAME

[jerseykingpin]

Boise covers by 14 jsut like everybody jumped on GT last nite and what happen thank god I wasnt one of them GOOD LUCK ALL

[PingPong]

think Boise will win by a few tds

[baa269]

took fresno state +8 at betus with Free Play. will watch game late tonight and catch a live line towards 4th qtr for game.

[williams22]

Fresno lost to a Wisconsin team that had as many as 40, yes 40, players affect by the flu in the week leading up to the game. Boise St. is a much better team than Wisconsin and is strong on both sides of the ball. I expect a blowout of at least 2 TDs here for Boise.

[ji03]

Boise St. -8

[BmoreBucco]

OK, I have been thinking Boise State all along, but it just went down to -7. Anyone like to talk me out of seeing that red flag?

[UnderDog_Philip]

Taking Boise St. -7.5. Their offense is good but their defense looks better this year. I just don't see how Fresno St. can keep up with them, and their QB will throw a couple of INTs.

[Betman]

OK, I have been thinking Boise State all along, but it just went down to -7. Anyone like to talk me out of seeing that red flag?

A 0.5 point move is hardly a red flag.

You want a red flag ? Try a 1.5 point move or higher

[BmoreBucco]

Didn't it open at 10?

[BmoreBucco]

BTW, back to 7.5 at my book...

[BmoreBucco]

and where is CK? anyone? I have been away awhile on travel, so excuse me if it is an old question, but really, where is ck?

[hova24e]

Anybody want to bet me 50 sbr points? I'll take Fresno State +7.5

[Betman]

The line opened at 10 at 5dimes, Bookmaker, the Greek, BetJamaica and BetPhoenix

It opened at 7.5 everywhere else (including Pinnacle)

[BmoreBucco]

Anybody want to bet me 50 sbr points? I'll take Fresno State +7.5

But why? Home field? Conference foe and familiarity?

[BmoreBucco]

The line opened at 10 at 5dimes, Bookmaker, the Greek, BetJamaica and BetPhoenix

It opened at 7.5 everywhere else (including Pinnacle)

So in other words, it's a 2.5 to 3 point movement at some pretty significant books. That's not a red flag?


Don't get me wrong, everything in me says Boise St., but I like to be informed and use a soundboard. So I'm genuinely asking, nobody sees a red flag here?

[hova24e]

THis may sound crazy to you, but I'm taking Fresno because when the line opened I believe that Boise should've been favored by more points, especially taking into account the public's perception of Boise (and their last meeting with Fresno 61-10)

But why? Home field? Conference foe and familiarity?

[hova24e]

I spotted a red flag as soon as the line opened.................let the suckers take Boise...............................just as GT was last night, and the patriots monday night............."easy money" right? WRONG

So in other words, it's a 2.5 to 3 point movement at some pretty significant books. That's not a red flag?


Don't get me wrong, everything in me says Boise St., but I like to be informed and use a soundboard. So I'm genuinely asking, nobody sees a red flag here?

[BmoreBucco]

Doesn't sound crazy at all, hence the hesitation on my part.

[williams22]

I spotted a red flag as soon as the line opened.................let the suckers take Boise...............................just as GT was last night, and the patriots monday night............."easy money" right? WRONG

Care to share your reasoning for taking Fresno?

[Betman]

So in other words, it's a 2.5 to 3 point movement at some pretty significant books. That's not a red flag?


Don't get me wrong, everything in me says Boise St., but I like to be informed and use a soundboard. So I'm genuinely asking, nobody sees a red flag here?

The magnitude of the point movement alone is not reason enough to suggest smart money involvment in a particular game.

You need to look at the "increments" involved.

If you look at how the lines moved, you will notice that the vast majority of those moves were caused by HALF A POINT increments (80% of them) and a few ONE POINT increments here and there.

I would have seen a red flag if I saw a 1.5 point increment or more at several books which is not the case. Moves like that take a big chunk of money to make them happen. And most of the time, the smart money is behind it.

Dude ! Vegas is a master in the art of messing with our heads. This could be one of those examples.

Just my 2 and half cents

[BmoreBucco]

I took the plunge, bought a point and have Boise State pretty big at CFB [103] BOISE STATE -6½-130 (B+1)

[hova24e]

Simple, because sportsbooks get paid on games like this.............and I'm not going to be the one who's paying them..........................they want people to side with Boise and they dress the line up to appear to look like easy money (without making it look too obvious)

Just my theory...............

Care to share your reasoning for taking Fresno?

[BmoreBucco]

Simple, because sportsbooks get paid on games like this.............and I'm not going to be the one who's paying them..........................they want people to side with Boise and they dress the line up to appear to look like easy money (without making it look too obvious)

Just my theory...............

Fair enough, but you do realize they "dress up" the line for the dog equally, right?

[hova24e]

I understand that, but this is not one of those cases. Not saying that Fresno is a lock for covering, but I am saying that it should be either Fresno or a "no-bet" for this game................................

Fair enough, but you do realize they dress up the line for the dog equally, right?

[hova24e]

Two bookmakers talking to each other about this game:

Looking at the recent history and the stats, who in their right mind would take Fresno here? Certainly not the majority of people, so let's dress the line up so people take Boise and think it's easy money, without making it too obvious.....................

[hova24e]

75% chance that Fresno covers.......................thank me later guys.....................

[BmoreBucco]

I love the feedback, but I'm on Boise so I guess I have a 1 in 4 chance, but I'll post after work. One of us will win, right?

[Betman]

The Sports Network is predicting an execution tonight. They have Boise winning by 4 touchdowns meaning a cover by 3 touchdowns.

Boise State : 38
Fresno State : 10

[newjerseydevils]

The magnitude of the point movement alone is not reason enough to suggest smart money involvment in a particular game.

You need to look at the "increments" involved.

If you look at how the lines moved, you will notice that the vast majority of those moves were caused by HALF A POINT increments (80% of them) and a few ONE POINT increments here and there.

I would have seen a red flag if I saw a 1.5 point increment or more at several books which is not the case. Moves like that take a big chunk of money to make them happen. And most of the time, the smart money is behind it.

Dude ! Vegas is a master in the art of messing with our heads. This could be one of those examples.

Just my 2 and half cents

agreed vegas messes with out heads more than we think......dont fall for the low lines

boise is the pick here

[aman86]

Anybody want to bet me 50 sbr points? I'll take Fresno State +7.5

I'll take that challenge for 35.

[sportsguy04]

Anybody want to bet me 50 sbr points? I'll take Fresno State +7.5

Yup Ill bet ya 50 SBR points.

I got Boise -7.5

U got Fresno +7.5

[Betman]

I would hate to be in Hova's shoes if Fresno does not cover tonight.

He will be owing so many SBR points, he will make the federal budget deficit look small by comparison

[kurocks]

Everyone was picking Boise to cover so they drop the line to 7.5 so people will think there is going to be a huge upset and put their money on Fresno St. Anything could happen but betting on Fresno imo is giving money away. Anything can happen, nothing is guaranteed. Go Boise.

[MLM50]

I'm going Fresno + 7.5

[DrStale]

Fade the forum. Fresno +7.5