NCAAF picks... for Week 6...

**usma1992** · 10-05-23, 08:57 AM

12:00 PM	WMICHIGAN	23	MISSISSIPPIS	34	57	-20.5	56.5	Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	MARSHALL	27	NCSTATE	24	51	-6.5	44.5	Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	UTSA	34	TEMPLE	21	55	14	54.5	Too Close	Too Close
2:00 PM	CMICHIGAN	23	BUFFALO	32	55	3	52.5	Home Plus	Too Close
3:00 PM	WASHINGTONST	32	UCLA	26	58	-3.5	60	Away ML	Too Close
3:30 PM	SYRACUSE	27	NCAROLINA	29	56	-8	59.5	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	WAKEFOREST	18	CLEMSON	44	62	-21	52	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	VIRGINIATECH	18	FLORIDAST	36	54	-24	52	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	NORTHTEXAS	38	NAVY	37	75	-6	61	Too Close	Over
3:30 PM	NILLINOIS	25	AKRON	16	41	5.5	43.5	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	BALLST	15	EMICHIGAN	15	30	-2.5	43	Too Close	Under
3:30 PM	BOWLINGGREEN	16	MIAMIOHIO	20	36	-9.5	45	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	KENTST	12	OHIOU	35	47	-26	45	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	PURDUE	24	IOWA	14	38	-2.5	39.5	Away ML	Too Close
3:30 PM	ALABAMA	25	TEXASA&M	24	49	1.5	46.5	Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	TEXASST	29	LALAFAYETTE	32	61	-2.5	68.5	Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	UCF	34	KANSAS	21	55	-2	65	Away ML	Too Close
4:00 PM	VANDERBILT	15	FLORIDA	33	48	-18	52	Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	ARKANSASST	15	TROY	40	55	-16	52	Too Close	Too Close
4:00 PM	SFLORIDA	37	UAB	33	70	3.5	69	Too Close	Too Close

**usma1992** · 10-05-23, 08:57 AM

5:00 PM	CONNECTICUT	21	RICE	31	52	-9.5	48	Too Close	Too Close
6:00 PM	TULSA	26	FLAATLANTIC	30	56	-3.5	56	Too Close	Too Close
6:30 PM	COLORADO	40	ARIZONAST	28	68	3.5	59.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	KENTUCKY	11	GEORGIA	33	44	-14.5	47.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	SALABAMA	28	LAMONROE	10	38	10.5	51	Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	OLDDOMINION	20	SOUTHERNMISS	33	53	-1.5	57	Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	NOTREDAME	25	LOUISVILLE	19	44	6	54	Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	ARKANSAS	17	OLEMISS	38	55	-11.5	62.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	MICHIGAN	25	MINNESOTA	1	26	19	45.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	GEORGIATECH	17	MIAMI	43	60	-21	57	Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	TCU	38	IOWAST	14	52	6.5	52.5	Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	FRESNOST	35	WYOMING	6	41	6	44	Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	COLORADOST	35	UTAHST	37	72	2	65	Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	SANJOSEST	30	BOISEST	34	64	-9.5	59	Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	TEXASTECH	37	BAYLOR	29	66	1.5	60.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:00 PM	OREGONST	30	CALIFORNIA	24	54	9.5	52	Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	ARIZONA	19	USC	41	60	-22	71.5	Too Close	Too Close

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-05-23, 10:25 AM

Looks good, usma. Can tell you put a lot of work into this.

Game I'll have my eye on = Okla/Texas. Sooners have not yet had a high-profile game. Sooners look live to me.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-05-23, 10:27 AM

Minn is bad. If this game lands 25-1, I'll send you a c-note:

7:30 PM

MICHIGAN

25

MINNESOTA

1

**usma1992** · 10-05-23, 11:49 AM

That is definitely and interesting game. I think in my next iteration of the model... I am going add an elimination of the over bet if one of the teams has a zscore of less than -1.4 on their passing attempts. The service academies rarely pass and so it is can be very difficult to hit the over.

Two of the overs this week are service academy games.

**HockeyOtt1978** · 10-05-23, 12:16 PM

USMA1992. Thanks for sharing your model output. Curiosity question for you…I saw in a previous thread that the model results don’t take into account weather/injuries for upcoming games, however do you take into account on the input? I am thinking of awful weather leading to a low scoring game that could be an outlier much like the Miami 70 point outburst was an outlier. Thanks!

**usma1992** · 10-05-23, 05:24 PM

Appreciate the question...

First the Miami game I definitely am concerned about. A game like that is extremely rare and destroys the statistics... probably for the year.

Injuries... I have no chance at accounting for them

Weather ... I believe can be done and I look forward to adding to my system to adjust for the weather.

If I adjust Miami down 20%... I still think the system picks them.

Dave

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-05-23, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Looks good, usma. Can tell you put a lot of work into this.

Game I'll have my eye on = Okla/Texas. Sooners have not yet had a high-profile game. Sooners look live to me.

Picked up a nice note on Texas:
*Texas has played against a BACKUP QB in each of their L3 games, including KS last week.

**usma1992** · 10-05-23, 08:25 PM

So right now... your on the hook for analysis beyond the numbers which includes your Las Vegas play and your analysis of the Red River rivalry. I don't hold it against you by any means.

I know that the analysis has to go beyond the numbers but I want the numbers to mean 90% the analysis to to mean the last 10%.
Which is what you are doing...
Dave

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-05-23, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

So right now... your on the hook for analysis beyond the numbers which includes your Las Vegas play and your analysis of the Red River rivalry. I don't hold it against you by any means.

I know that the analysis has to go beyond the numbers but I want the numbers to mean 90% the analysis to to mean the last 10%.
Which is what you are doing...
Dave

Dave, I'm not on top of my game. Pretty busy nowadays, not doing the requisite amount of work.

*I'll call Oklahoma an Opinion. I actually have no action on that game, for one reason. I missed the +6.5, I hate taking the short-end of the #.
...Was speaking to another capper, and he made a great point. As good as the Sooner offense is, they gave up some long pops to IASt. Texas figures to have success w/ Ewers throwing.
...Big key for me = Okla 49-0 revenge. Should feel good about getting a great effort in rivalry game.
...And I am a fan of Gabriel (75% completions). He's a little under-the-radar b/c they have yet to play a hi-profile game.

Yes, the Raiders were a play for me. But I will repeat what I always say: *It's the # on YOUR TICKET.
...I bet Raiders at +2.5 (1.90) and +1.5 (2.00). Those prices are gone.
...Raiders now favored, so I'll be holding good BTCL (vs # at kickoff).
...There are 7 AFC vs NFC games this week. If I was a betting man, I'd feel good about the AFC going 4-3 ATS or better in those games.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-23, 03:00 PM

us, props if you had the Sooners.
...Seems like a lot of Dog bettors were on them today.

**A Quant** · 10-09-23, 07:49 AM

Dave, really appreciate you posting your system.

As I said a dozen times, love this content.

Here are the numbers for the selections you posted for Week 6.

Overall: 3-8

Broken down:
Money line: 1-3
ATS 1-3
Totals: 1-2

Keep grinding man! Do your thing, it will turn.