I get this sneaky feeling.....

[saeker]

That Ohio St. is about to get handed its first loss.
ML is Penn St. +500

[stevenash]

That Ohio St. is about to get handed its first loss.
ML is Penn St. +500

When I first saw the openers on Sunday night, the thing I said to myself is that Happy Valley is not a pleasant place to play in if you're a road team, considering the road team is Ohio State, you can't ignore the home field advantage.

Heritage is offering +16 and +515.
I like the +16 more that I do the +515
+515 IMO is pretty fair value, the money line says if these two teams played each other six times, Ohio State would win five times in Happy Valley. I'm not so sure about all that.

Like you said, you have a sneaky feeling, and as the old timers used to say, "got a hunch, bet a bunch"

I'm with you on the +16, I may talk myself into a small money line wager.

I'm not big time, I'm a 40/80/120 player.
A half unit for me is twenty dollars, I have a double sawbuck to play with, that's not a problem at all.
Let me think that over some more.

[A Quant]

That Ohio St. is about to get handed its first loss.
ML is Penn St. +500

Sometimes college football bettors look at historical angles--- "Penn State has always played Ohio State tough"

And that thought comes down to 3 games-- 2016, 2017, and 2018. The last 3 games Ohio State has blown the doors off Penn State, but more--- the truth is-- Ohio State has won 9 of the last 10. The last 3 by an average of 11 points.

There is no metric where Penn State beats Ohio State on Saturday. Sure, anything can happen-- but Penn State wasn't beaten by Michigan, they were dominated by Michigan. Ohio State is very similar to Michigan. Penn State has not seen a QB or set of WRs like this since the last time they played Ohio State.

Ohio State wins by double digits.

[jtoler]

Sometimes college football bettors look at historical angles--- "Penn State has always played Ohio State tough"

And that thought comes down to 3 games-- 2016, 2017, and 2018. The last 3 games Ohio State has blown the doors off Penn State, but more--- the truth is-- Ohio State has won 9 of the last 10. The last 3 by an average of 11 points.

There is no metric where Penn State beats Ohio State on Saturday. Sure, anything can happen-- but Penn State wasn't beaten by Michigan, they were dominated by Michigan. Ohio State is very similar to Michigan. Penn State has not seen a QB or set of WRs like this since the last time they played Ohio State.

Ohio State wins by double digits.

this. minus the 2 freaky plays by pee es u its blue 41-3. osu will wreck shop too.

[saeker]

I know there is nothing pointing to an upset

there are no metrics and no history that make this a logical bet.
just something i feel in my loins.

[saeker]

I do think that the 16.5 is way too high. i think it will be closer than that.
The moneyline bet may be a day dream, i really have no interest in either team, other than the potential $ they represent.
But in betting college football, cut thru all the metrics and other bullshit. its really just one team or the other.