Newsletters ncaa week 8/nfl week 7

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 0-3. Season: 13-19)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 2-3. Season: 19-17)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

The Plays

USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: I'm expecting a little chill in the air Saturday night in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame gets its all-everything tight end Michael Mayer back, which should provide a huge lift to an offense that has lacked consistency. I like the improving defense of the Irish and their secondary, which includes All-American candidate Kyle Hamilton and CB Cam Hart. They match up well with the Air Raid of the Trojans, who feature star wide receiver Drake London (64 catches in 6 games). I expect the Irish to come out with more of a sense of urgency, too, knowing they can still manage a successful season.
Pick: Notre Dame -7 (Notre Dame 34, USC 19)
Fallica: The Trojans have a zig-zag pattern this season, which makes perfect sense. After laying an egg at home vs. Utah, it's a perfect spot for a good performance as a road dog vs. a rival. I don't know if Notre Dame has an answer defensively for London, and all Notre Dame has done all year is play close games behind mediocre offensive line and QB play.
Pick: USC +7

No. 10 Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins (-2, 60.5)

Sports Betting

NFL: MVP, Super Bowl futures watch
NFL: Notable bets: A-Rod owns Bears

CFB: Preseason projections revisited
CFB: Georgia now favorite to take title
NBA: Nets favored; bettors back Lakers
NBA: Best bets for the 2021-22 season
NHL: Best future bets for the season
ESPN Chalk home
Stanford Steve: Another one of these matchups this week that features an unranked home team favored over the ranked road team. UCLA went to Eugene, Oregon, last year and battled without its four-year starting QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and lost 38-35 to the Ducks in a great game. This year, I believe UCLA has improved in every facet, especially its run defense that still allows only 91 yards rushing per game. We'll take the home team and give the points.
Pick: UCLA -2 (UCLA 31, Oregon 27)

LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-9, 76)
Stanford Steve: Last year, Matt Corral played his worst game of the year and threw five INTs in a 53-48 loss. This year, he comes in as the Heisman Trophy front-runner and has thrown one INT in six games. Last week, LSU pulled off the upset by forcing the Florida Gators into four turnovers ... and it needed every one of them. I expect offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby's offense to have plenty of success for 60 minutes. We'll give the points with the home team.
Pick: Ole Miss -9 (Ole Miss 48, LSU 32)

No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 47)
Fallica: Oklahoma State has been a thorn in the Cyclones' side the past two years, and a bit of payback might be in store here. Both teams still have very real Big 12 title hopes, despite Iowa State being forgotten about just a little bit since its slow start. Against Kansas and Kansas State the past two weeks, the Iowa State offense has played its best ball of the year, and if it's up to the task Saturday, the Cyclones should win by more than a TD. I don't see Oklahoma State doing a whole lot offensively.
Pick: Iowa State -7

No. 18 NC State Wolfpack (-3, 53) at Miami Hurricanes
Fallica: NC State got the impressive win at Boston College last week and sent me home a loser. I'm on the other side of the Wolfpack this week, but it's not an anti-NC State play, it's a pro-Miami lean. Miami's defense has been a mess, but its young offense has put points on the board. And even more notable to me is that despite falling behind big to Virginia and UNC, the Canes haven't quit. In fact, they made big comebacks and easily could have found themselves in OT or as outright winners in both instances. They are still playing hard for themselves and their coach, and I like that.
Pick: Miami +3

No. 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3, 52.5) at Army Black Knights

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Stanford Steve: We know what Army will bring to the table, and all the pressure is on the undefeated Demon Deacons. Wake has not been good in this scenario, as it is 1-5 in its past six games as a road favorite. Plus, it seems Army always gives these offensive-minded teams fits for a full 60 minutes. We'll take the home team and the points.
Pick: Army +3 (Wake Forest 23, Army 21)
Fallica: Wake has given up a ton of rush yards in its past two games vs. Louisville and Syracuse, which concerns me here. Sure the Deacs know there isn't much of a passing threat, but there wasn't much of a pass threat vs. the Orange either. Coming home after another close loss vs. a Power 5 team, I think Army has the goods to hang the first loss of the year on the Deacs.
Pick: Army +3

No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force Falcons (-3.5, 39)
Fallica: Air Force is a deserving favorite, as I'm not sure how much offense the Aztecs will be able to muster up away from home after the QB switch and against a team that has allowed more than 17 points just once. The Falcons are a quiet 6-1 after their win at Boise State, but we've noticed.
Pick: Air Force -3.5
Stanford Steve: The Falcons come in covering five of their past six games, including last week in a win at Boise State where their defense gave up only 337 total yards to the Broncos in the upset win. SDSU will make a QB change, even though it is undefeated, and go with Georgia Tech transfer Lucas Johnson, who threw the winning TD last week at San Jose State. I'll take the home team and give the points.
Pick: Air Force -3.5 (Air Force 24, San Diego State 17)

South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies (-19.5, 45)
Stanford Steve: We've been searching to the blowout for some weeks. We'll say the Aggies dominate the short-handed Gamecocks offense at home at night.
Pick: Texas A&M -19.5 (Texas A&M 38, South Carolina 10)

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: The Horned Frogs' defense got ambushed in Norman by the Sooners last week, but the Mountaineers don't bring to the table what Oklahoma does. Mountaineers star running back Leddie Brown has rushed for over 100 yards only once this year, and their offensive line has struggled to protect the quarterback, too. The feeling here is the Horned Frogs have enough defense to frustrate West Virginia, and the offense should get a boost from the return of running back Zach Evans, who has averaged 140 yards in the past four games he has played. Lay the points with the home team.
Pick: TCU -4.5 (TCU 34, West Virginia 21)

Utah Utes (-3, 56.5) at Oregon State Beavers
Fallica: An Oregon State win two weeks ago at Washington State might have put College GameDay in Corvallis, but the Beavers couldn't get the job done. They've had a week off since the loss, and Utah has had a difficult few weeks off the field and just had two emotional wins over USC and Arizona State. Can the Utes bounce back again with another "A" performance? They'll need to in order to walk out of Corvallis with a win.
Pick: Oregon State +3

The Bear's money-line parlay

Last Week: -100
Season: -509
$100 wins $78
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -900
Ohio State Buckeyes -1300
Penn State Nittany Lions -2400
Michigan Wolverines -2000
Cincinnati Bearcats -4500
Alabama Crimson Tide -4000
Texas A&M Aggies -1600
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -800
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors -1100

The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line

Last Week: 2-4, -0.65 units
Season: 19-25, +12.45 units
Charlotte 49ers +230
Miami Hurricanes +135
Army Black Knights +145
East Carolina Pirates +400
Oregon State Beavers +135
Purdue Boilermakers +135
USC Trojans +225

Bear bytes

NFL & CFB Best Bets

NFL: Best Eliminator picks for Week 7
NFL: Believe in Cowboys, Cardinals?
NFL: Allen, Murray co-MVP favorites

CFB: Best bets for this weekend's games
CFB: Stanford Steve & The Bear's picks
CFB: Overachievers and underachievers
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
Chalk home | NFL home | CFB home
Unranked, underdogs and undefeated
Two undefeated teams are road underdogs this week -- No. 8 Oklahoma State (+7) at Iowa State and San Diego State (+3.5) at Air Force. No. 10 Oregon is a road underdog at 5-2 UCLA. Also No. 25 Purdue is a home underdog to Wisconsin.
Last year in the regular season, there were just nine instances in which a ranked team was an underdog vs. an unranked team. Including the four this week, it will bring the 2021 total to 11 times when an unranked team was favored over a ranked team. The last time there was a week when at least four ranked teams were underdogs to unranked teams was November 17, 2012. Three of the five ranked teams that week won outright.
Each of the three military academies hosts a 6-0 team this weekend. One has to go back to Air Force vs. Utah on October 30, 2010, to find the last time an academy hosted a 6-0 team. In fact, going back in the previous 40 years, there have been just eight times an academy hosted a 6-0 team.
No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones
Since 2009, there have been eight games in which a top-10 team was an underdog vs. an unranked team. Ranked teams are 7-1 ATS in this spot.
The last time a top-10 team was at least a seven-point dog vs. an unranked team came in 1998, when Notre Dame was an 8.5-point dog at USC and lost 10-0.
Since 2016, Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS with 10 outright wins as an underdog. The Cowboys have won both of their games as an underdog this year (by 1 at Boise State and by 8 at Texas).
No. 16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights
Since 2016, Army has been an underdog vs. a Power 5 team nine times. The Black Knights are 7-2 ATS in those games with two outright wins. The past four games have been decided by 3, 3, 7 and 6 points vs. West Virginia, Michigan, Oklahoma and Wisconsin, respectively.
Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats
Arizona has lost 18 straight games and is 4-13-1 ATS in that stretch. The Cats' last win came October 5, 2019, over the Mel Tucker-led Colorado Buffaloes.
No. 18 NC State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes
Miami is 0-6 in its past six games vs. Power 5 competition, and has covered just one of the six games.

USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This is the third straight year an unranked USC team will take on a top-15 Notre Dame team. USC covered each of the past two, losing by three and seven points.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia Tech Hokies
This is the 21st straight game vs. FBS opposition in which the Orange are an underdog. The Orange have covered four straight and seven of eight.
Wisconsin Badgers at No. 25 Purdue Boilermakers

This is the 15th straight game in which Wisconsin is favored. The Badgers are just 5-9 ATS in the first 14 with seven outright losses. Wisconsin is 2-5 in its past seven Big Ten games (1-6 ATS).
LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels
LSU has averaged 46.8 PPG in its five-game win streak over Ole Miss. The past two years have produced 101 and 95 combined points in the game.
No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas has been on average a 22.6-point underdog this year vs. FBS teams. The Jayhawks haven't covered any of them and have lost the five games by an average of 32.6 PPG.
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State is 2-8 in its past 10 games vs. Indiana. The Buckeyes have been a favorite of 25.2 PPG in those 10 games and won by an average of 18.7 PPG.

**Dr. Fager** · 10-22-21, 03:53 PM