Best bets for the College Football Playoff semifinals 🏈
Best bets for the College Football Playoff semifinals
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The College Football Playoff is ready to get underway. With heavy hitters in the field, there are plenty of betting opportunities.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer up their best bets as we close in on the championship matchup.
CFP semifinal: Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 LSU Tigers (-13.5, 76) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners
(4 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN; at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Steele: LSU's signature victory this season came at Alabama in a 46-41 triumph. The next week, in a massive letdown spot on the road, the Tigers were shredded by Ole Miss for 402 rushing yards but still came away with a 58-37 win. Since then, the LSU defense has allowed just 253 yards per game.
Defense was Oklahoma's weakness last season, when it allowed 454 yards per game. Things are different this season. Over the past four outings, the Sooners have allowed only 278 yards per game, and on the season they have held foes to 95 yards per game below their season average (No. 11 in the country). They are also No. 11 in the nation in tackles for loss, with 118.
Oklahoma is on a 1-5 skid against the spread (ATS), with its five spread losses coming by 13.5 points per game. LSU is 9-4 ATS on the season, so the knee-jerk reaction is to take the Tigers (the straight-up winner of the 10 semifinal playoff games is 9-1 ATS). But with two underrated defenses and a total of 75.5, I will give a lean to the under.
Pick: Lean under 76
CFP semifinal: PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-2.5, 63)
(8 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN; at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
Johnson: I think everyone will be making a case for which side to take in this game -- which is fine -- but I think both sides point to the over in this instance. If you want to argue that Clemson hasn't faced anybody very good this season, great. Ohio State's offense ranked fifth in adjusted success rate and fifth in yards per play and should be able to move the ball against the Tigers.
If you want to argue that the best quarterback the Buckeyes' defense faced all season was Jack Coan or Shea Patterson, you'd be right. Neither of those names will be making a splash in the NFL, and now they get Trevor Lawrence, who will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft when he's eligible (and a future NFL MVP if I could find a spot offering to put the prop bet up now). We even saw Jonathan Taylor and the Wisconsin running game have success against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. What are Travis Etienne and Clemson's nation-leading 6.1 yards per rushing attempt going to be able to do with the threat of Lawrence under center instead of Coan?
My projection is 68.1 after adjusting for second-half pace and offensive efficiency numbers that dropped significantly for both teams, since they'd generally pack it in with massive leads in second halves. With a game script expected to be much more competitive than the norm this season for each school, we might see a little more back and forth than the market currently projects. I'm going with it.
Pick: Over 63
Steele: This game features perhaps the two most complete teams in college football. Both teams' offensive lines are among the best in the country. Clemson's Lawrence has more big-game experience, but Ohio State's Justin Fields had the better statistical season, with 40 touchdown passes and just one interception. Both teams boast All-America-caliber running backs in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) and Etienne (Clemson).
Ohio State faced a tougher schedule and led the nation with 191 yards per game above what opponents allow. Clemson's defense was No. 1, holding teams to 165 yards per game under their season average, and Ohio State's D was No. 3 at 145 yards per game below.
How do you go against either of these teams? I can't, so I will look at the total. While both defenses have been dominant, neither has faced an offense like they will face here. Clemson showed some vulnerability while allowing Virginia 23 first downs in the ACC title game, and Ohio State's defense allowed 414 yards per game over its the past two contests. This is not a great game to wager on, but it should be a tremendous game to watch.
Lean: Over 63
Connelly: This pick has everything to do with SP+. It has liked Ohio State all season. The Buckeyes passed Alabama for the No. 1 spot in early October and have been there ever since.
We know Clemson has taken the typical Clemson path through the season -- hang out in third gear as long as possible and then shift to fifth when someone draws blood -- and SP+ has been underestimating the Tigers because of that for most of the past two months. But even if I weight recent performances more heavily, SP+ still says the Buckeyes are superior. Leaning on my ratings when they disagree like this has worked out pretty well from a picks standpoint, so I'm rolling with this no matter how queasy it makes me to go against the champs (and no matter how much I dislike going against a -2.5 line).
It's not like it's that crazy to like Ohio State. The Buckeyes finished the season beating the Nos. 8, 11, and 12 teams, per SP+, each by double digits. They've got maybe the only defense statistically superior to Clemson's, and while they're dealing with coach-hire distractions -- defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is becoming Boston College's head coach, and passing game coordinator Mike Yurcich might leave, too -- Clemson is losing offensive co-coordinator Jeff Scott, so maybe that's a wash.
Pick: Ohio State +2.5
Kezirian: It's a fascinating matchup, given Clemson's weak competition. Or did Clemson just make the ACC look that bad? Perhaps I am falling victim to a comfort level of having seen the Tigers win 28 consecutive games and also defeat the Buckeyes in the 2016 national semifinals, but I feel they are the nation's best team. Aside from all that smoke, I do think Clemson is going to win this game. It comes down to my belief that the Tigers will have an easier time scoring against Ohio State's defense than the Buckeyes will against Clemson's defense. This requires splitting hairs, and that's the difference-maker for me.
I was not that impressed with Ohio State's defense when it faced competent opponents (Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State). Again, I am splitting hairs. So I will trust this Clemson team that I think is absolutely loaded on offense, with a quarterback who will be the top overall draft pick in 2021.
Pick: Clemson -2.5
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The College Football Playoff is ready to get underway. With heavy hitters in the field, there are plenty of betting opportunities.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer up their best bets as we close in on the championship matchup.
CFP semifinal: Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 LSU Tigers (-13.5, 76) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners
(4 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN; at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Steele: LSU's signature victory this season came at Alabama in a 46-41 triumph. The next week, in a massive letdown spot on the road, the Tigers were shredded by Ole Miss for 402 rushing yards but still came away with a 58-37 win. Since then, the LSU defense has allowed just 253 yards per game.
Defense was Oklahoma's weakness last season, when it allowed 454 yards per game. Things are different this season. Over the past four outings, the Sooners have allowed only 278 yards per game, and on the season they have held foes to 95 yards per game below their season average (No. 11 in the country). They are also No. 11 in the nation in tackles for loss, with 118.
Oklahoma is on a 1-5 skid against the spread (ATS), with its five spread losses coming by 13.5 points per game. LSU is 9-4 ATS on the season, so the knee-jerk reaction is to take the Tigers (the straight-up winner of the 10 semifinal playoff games is 9-1 ATS). But with two underrated defenses and a total of 75.5, I will give a lean to the under.
Pick: Lean under 76
CFP semifinal: PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-2.5, 63)
(8 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN; at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
Johnson: I think everyone will be making a case for which side to take in this game -- which is fine -- but I think both sides point to the over in this instance. If you want to argue that Clemson hasn't faced anybody very good this season, great. Ohio State's offense ranked fifth in adjusted success rate and fifth in yards per play and should be able to move the ball against the Tigers.
If you want to argue that the best quarterback the Buckeyes' defense faced all season was Jack Coan or Shea Patterson, you'd be right. Neither of those names will be making a splash in the NFL, and now they get Trevor Lawrence, who will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft when he's eligible (and a future NFL MVP if I could find a spot offering to put the prop bet up now). We even saw Jonathan Taylor and the Wisconsin running game have success against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. What are Travis Etienne and Clemson's nation-leading 6.1 yards per rushing attempt going to be able to do with the threat of Lawrence under center instead of Coan?
My projection is 68.1 after adjusting for second-half pace and offensive efficiency numbers that dropped significantly for both teams, since they'd generally pack it in with massive leads in second halves. With a game script expected to be much more competitive than the norm this season for each school, we might see a little more back and forth than the market currently projects. I'm going with it.
Pick: Over 63
Steele: This game features perhaps the two most complete teams in college football. Both teams' offensive lines are among the best in the country. Clemson's Lawrence has more big-game experience, but Ohio State's Justin Fields had the better statistical season, with 40 touchdown passes and just one interception. Both teams boast All-America-caliber running backs in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) and Etienne (Clemson).
Ohio State faced a tougher schedule and led the nation with 191 yards per game above what opponents allow. Clemson's defense was No. 1, holding teams to 165 yards per game under their season average, and Ohio State's D was No. 3 at 145 yards per game below.
How do you go against either of these teams? I can't, so I will look at the total. While both defenses have been dominant, neither has faced an offense like they will face here. Clemson showed some vulnerability while allowing Virginia 23 first downs in the ACC title game, and Ohio State's defense allowed 414 yards per game over its the past two contests. This is not a great game to wager on, but it should be a tremendous game to watch.
Lean: Over 63
Connelly: This pick has everything to do with SP+. It has liked Ohio State all season. The Buckeyes passed Alabama for the No. 1 spot in early October and have been there ever since.
We know Clemson has taken the typical Clemson path through the season -- hang out in third gear as long as possible and then shift to fifth when someone draws blood -- and SP+ has been underestimating the Tigers because of that for most of the past two months. But even if I weight recent performances more heavily, SP+ still says the Buckeyes are superior. Leaning on my ratings when they disagree like this has worked out pretty well from a picks standpoint, so I'm rolling with this no matter how queasy it makes me to go against the champs (and no matter how much I dislike going against a -2.5 line).
It's not like it's that crazy to like Ohio State. The Buckeyes finished the season beating the Nos. 8, 11, and 12 teams, per SP+, each by double digits. They've got maybe the only defense statistically superior to Clemson's, and while they're dealing with coach-hire distractions -- defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is becoming Boston College's head coach, and passing game coordinator Mike Yurcich might leave, too -- Clemson is losing offensive co-coordinator Jeff Scott, so maybe that's a wash.
Pick: Ohio State +2.5
Kezirian: It's a fascinating matchup, given Clemson's weak competition. Or did Clemson just make the ACC look that bad? Perhaps I am falling victim to a comfort level of having seen the Tigers win 28 consecutive games and also defeat the Buckeyes in the 2016 national semifinals, but I feel they are the nation's best team. Aside from all that smoke, I do think Clemson is going to win this game. It comes down to my belief that the Tigers will have an easier time scoring against Ohio State's defense than the Buckeyes will against Clemson's defense. This requires splitting hairs, and that's the difference-maker for me.
I was not that impressed with Ohio State's defense when it faced competent opponents (Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State). Again, I am splitting hairs. So I will trust this Clemson team that I think is absolutely loaded on offense, with a quarterback who will be the top overall draft pick in 2021.
Pick: Clemson -2.5