Thoughts on Memphis +13.5?

**jaffers** · 09-25-06, 08:56 PM

pags,

funny you put that game out there for discussion because i was just researching that game as i put an early bet on tenn minus 13.5 when the line came out on cris... i mean last week tommy west fired joe lee dunn as defensive c and took over the job himself. in west's press conference today he continously restates that he in the long run he thinks the defense will be much better...
Here are some of his quote's from the conference:

"I am concerned with the bumps and the bruises that we have, in particular on defense. We did a lot of contact work last week, and we have some people banged up that have to get well for this game. I think most of them will make it for the game. The hard thing is some of them aren't practicing. It's going to be hard for some of them to play in this game because they haven't had the reps. If they don't get the reps, they aren't going to play. We'll just play other people."

ERRRRGHHHHH hit the breaks here?!!! What "some of them aren't practicing...." you had two weeks to get ready for this game and you just beat the piss out of em... how are they supppose to learn a brand new defense without practicing it... Next...

"I do believe that down the road we're going to be tough. I like what our players are doing right now. I don't know in this game, in a two week period of time, it's going to be pretty difficult." ..."I think once our guys get a good grasp of the total package and how it works and how everything fits together, I think we'll be fine. Right now to be honest I don't know because we haven't played a game."...
oh yeah and this one...

"Right now we've got five defensive ends; four of them are freshmen and one is a sophomore. We're pretty young at that position I would say."

o.k. ok
you get the picture here...
the problem on betting on tennessee here is that fulmer doesn't run up thescore and elludes to that every now and then... i wouldn't expect him to do that against his formere running back coach who graduated from TennU... and another thing in this series check out these stats from the tenn media guide:
"Other than a 49-28 UT win in 2001, the games between the in-state rivals have been competitive and generally low-scoring in the Fulmer era (1993-present). The Vols have scored more than 24 points just once, and four of the six games have been decided by single digits."

so anyway i did bet this game at -13 becuase that fulmer is trying to get his defense to finish strong after havign weak fourth quarters prior to the marshall game. He emphasized finishign strong and they did just that holding marshall to one score. I can only hope coach fulmer starts his squad and the defense can score late and finish strong... i think their is a high chance tenn covers this game and athletically there is no reason why they shouldn't be able to however football isn't always about what athletes want.

good luck on your picks and i hope this info helped

**Don Dollars** · 09-25-06, 10:40 PM

Nicely written up. Interesting perspectives. Makes a ton of sense.

**pags11** · 09-25-06, 11:34 PM

jaffers,

thanks for this info...Tommy West is an idiot for sure, no doubt about it...and I really liked Joe Lee Dunn...gonna keep doing my research on this one, but if I can get 14.5 later this week, I might think about it...appreciate the info...

**r2d2** · 09-26-06, 12:01 PM

great write up. That is the kind of knowledge that I love to get around here. Pags, I'm with you, I think alot of money will come in on the vols later in the week, if we can pick this up at 14.5 or 15, i will consider the play.

**pags11** · 09-26-06, 04:29 PM

agreed r2d2...am in a holding pattern currently...

**jaffers** · 09-30-06, 12:13 PM

with memphiss top two running backs helf out for the first half this game was deserving of a nice halftime bet... memphis defense cannot get off of the field here

**bigboydan** · 09-30-06, 12:29 PM

I still think memphis covers this line, even though there losing by 13 at the half.

**onlooker** · 09-30-06, 12:44 PM

Doss is playing in the second half, so that can make a difference. He is Memphis's leading rusher. He served a 1 half suspension.

**Don Dollars** · 09-30-06, 02:42 PM

You were correct Jaffers. Nicely written up. Nicely done.

**bigboydan** · 09-30-06, 03:39 PM

This game wasn't even close at all. UT just blew'um out today.

**r2d2** · 09-30-06, 03:47 PM

glad i stayed away from this one alltogether!

**pags11** · 09-30-06, 04:34 PM

jaffers,

thanks for talking me off this one...

**jaffers** · 09-30-06, 04:38 PM

hey no problem

i only wished i coulda talked you all into joining the dark side here...

your welcome though pags...

**pags11** · 10-01-06, 02:23 AM

I look forward to more of your contributions around the forum jaffers...keep up the good work...