Teasers: a sucker play in NCAAF?

[Justin7]

For a well-priced teaser (+100 2-teamer), you have to win each leg 70.7% of the time to have an edge. College football is higher scoring, so you normally don't win an extra 20.7% of your games for the premium paid in a teaser (compared to NFL, where there are quite a few profitable places to tease).

Is there ever a good time to tease NCAAF games? Yes.

Anytime you see a favorite of 7-8.5 with a high moneyline. This week, Notre Dame is a 7-point favorite. The ML is -300/260. You could tease ND, play the dog ML and gain equity. Anytime this happens, either the teaser has equity or the ML is inflated (or both).

Another trick for NCAAF teaser plays: look for situations that are similar to NFL: premium teams playing and lower totals (under 42).

[pags11]

justin, teasers are sucker plays period, but especially in college football where there are so many games that aren't even close to the spread...

[darkghost]

Justin,

I see you're pretty knowledgeable about teasers. I played too many teasers when I first start sports betting then I steered cleared thinking their sucker bets, but after finding this forum I've come to realize teasers are just another tool used to beat the book. I agree on your points, BTW.

Here's a few thoughts & questions though:

Just like teasing down 8.5 - 7.5 point favs, teasing up 1.5 - 2.5 point dogs is also an effective strategy in the right spots. But would teasing a +3 team to +9 be a good idea?

Also, which books offer 6 pt even money teasers? The only books that I use for football that offers is Legendz.

Your thoughts are appreciated.

[Justin7]

In most cases, teasing from +3 to +9 is not a winning play.

The number of 2-team +100 teaser books is scarce. Of books rated B or higher, they include:

Legendz
Betmania
Batmaker
Mansion

Note - I am not endorsing any book, but just giving information.

My prediction: None of these books will offer these teasers in 2 years.

I'd also note that 5 Dimes offers these, but they skew their lines to make "wise-guy" teasers useless.

[pags11]

interesting thoughts on teasers there justin...

[Zippoman]

I really cant see these teasers being a good play except under some very specific situations.

You may be on to something about the high money line situation with a 7-8.5 fave.

I suppose that If I do play any college teasers this year it would have to be a team like South Carolina who is favored by 6.5 and has a total of 39.5 or 40.

For the record I like Miss St but you get my point.

[Zippoman]

Okay here is one that I am playing as soon as Skybook puts up total on game. Think it has alot of potential to win.

7pt -110 ties push

FSU +10 teased with under 47 or 47.5

[Justin7]

Teasing totals is usually a bad idea.

I do like dogs with unders, but the correlation is not strong enough in NCAAF to bet. Even a +40 dog/60 total isn't good enough to tease the dog and under.

[darkghost]

In most cases, teasing from +3 to +9 is not a winning play.

The number of 2-team +100 teaser books is scarce. Of books rated B or higher, they include:

Legendz
Betmania
Batmaker
Mansion

Note - I am not endorsing any book, but just giving information.

My prediction: None of these books will offer these teasers in 2 years.

I'd also note that 5 Dimes offers these, but they skew their lines to make "wise-guy" teasers useless.

You can scratch Legendz/ThePig off that list now. I'll have to go w/ Mansion for now. I don't know if I can trust a site called Batmaker. They might break my knee caps if I make a big score.

[Justin7]

You can scratch Legendz/ThePig off that list now. I'll have to go w/ Mansion for now. I don't know if I can trust a site called Batmaker. They might break my knee caps if I make a big score.

Ouch. One typo bites you in the butt much later...

Regarding Legendz... That sounds like an intelligent bookmaking decision. There are now no "A" books offering 2-team +100 teasers. While I haven't played at Legendz, I respect a book that makes intelligent long-term decisions on dangerous promotions. Offering those kind of teasers is begging a flock of sharps to swarm in on you.

[savman]

FWIW, I play teasers, college and pros and I like to use Heritage (B+) because they allow open spots FOREVER. You can play one spot a week if you like, or longer. In a way it's more bang for your buck.

just my .02