Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas Longhorns
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas Longhorns
Ohio State got the chance to play in the past two BCS title games, and fell to SEC schools each time. Texas thought they were going to get a shot at playing for the national championship this year, but the Longhorns were snubbed in favor of an Oklahoma team they beat in the regular season. Now the two will clash in Monday night's Fiesta Bowl with the 'Horns favored by 8 against Chris Wells and the Buckeyes.
They have to stop meeting like this.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are in Glendale – again. They’re facing the Texas Longhorns – again. But things are different this time. The Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) got into the BCS bowl picture through the back door, earning an invitation to Monday’s Fiesta Bowl despite finishing the regular season ranked No. 10 in the BCS standings. The Longhorns (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) were snubbed by the BCS, passed over for a National Championship berth in favor of the same Oklahoma Sooners (-7) they beat 45-35 at the Red River Shootout.
The difference between the two paths taken can be seen in the betting odds: Ohio State is an 8-point dog at most books, although you can also find the Buckeyes at +8½ if you do your shopping. You can also look at Brian Fremeau’s influential stat-driven power rankings and find the Longhorns at No. 4 going into the last week of the season, with OSU dragging behind at No. 12. But those power numbers cover the entire season; if you had to pick the hotter team of the two heading into the postseason, you’d have to pick Ohio State.
Most of OSU’s troubles in 2008 happened early in the season, culminating in an embarrassing 35-3 loss at USC (-10.5). Since then, the Buckeyes have turned to freshman QB Terrelle Pryor, who has delivered 12 TD throws (with just four picks) and rushed for another six majors. The Buckeyes have also benefited greatly from the return of RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, third in the Big Ten with 1,091 yards rushing despite injuring his right foot in the season opener and missing the next three games – including the loss to the Trojans. Since then, Ohio State is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS, the only defeat coming at the hands of the conference champs from Penn State (-1½).
While the Buckeyes struggled through September, Texas was on the way to something great. The Longhorns plowed their way though their first five opponents by a combined score of 236-57. Then they dusted off the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl and made a meal of Missouri before finally hitting some potholes. But Texas dropped the cash in each of its next three games, including a 39-33 loss to Texas Tech (+3½) that knocked the ‘Horns out of first place in the polls. A pair of easy wins over Kansas (+14) and Texas A&M (+35) couldn’t get the Burnt Orange back into the BCS title game.
The Longhorns aren’t necessarily good fade candidates in and of themselves based on their recent 0-3 ATS mini-slump, but the Buckeyes certainly have betting value as a team that turned from a caterpillar to a butterfly in midseason – granted, an ugly Big Ten butterfly that nobody wants. We also have a pair of OSU-Texas matchups in 2005-06 that suggest Ohio State is undervalued this week. Vince Young’s Longhorns eked out a victory in the first game, 25-22 as 1.5-point road dogs. Colt McCoy was under center for the rematch, which Troy Smith’s Buckeyes (+3) won 24-7 at Texas Memorial.
The Xs and Os on the ground point toward a competitive rubber match between these two elite programs. On one side, McCoy leads a brilliant Texas offense against the notoriously tough Buckeyes defense, with three-time All-American LB James Laurinaitis back for a second helping after chewing up the Longhorns in the 2006 game.
On the other side, Texas has one of the few top-level defenses in the Big 12, while Ohio State has definitely gotten its act together as a running team with Pryor and Wells. The ‘Horns have allowed a mere 2.79 yards per carry this year – although that was coming out of a pass-happy conference. Texas only faced 317 rushing attempts during the regular season, the fewest in the FBS. The Buckeyes ran the ball 501 times this year, No. 25 in the nation and second only to Wisconsin (567) in the Big Ten.
Given that Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowls as the chalk, there’s ample reason to support Ohio State in what should be a very entertaining Fiesta Bowl. The fact that only 20 percent of bettors agree, according to market reports at press time, is a good thing for value-based handicappers. The betting public is what it is.
Ohio State got the chance to play in the past two BCS title games, and fell to SEC schools each time. Texas thought they were going to get a shot at playing for the national championship this year, but the Longhorns were snubbed in favor of an Oklahoma team they beat in the regular season. Now the two will clash in Monday night's Fiesta Bowl with the 'Horns favored by 8 against Chris Wells and the Buckeyes.
They have to stop meeting like this.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are in Glendale – again. They’re facing the Texas Longhorns – again. But things are different this time. The Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) got into the BCS bowl picture through the back door, earning an invitation to Monday’s Fiesta Bowl despite finishing the regular season ranked No. 10 in the BCS standings. The Longhorns (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) were snubbed by the BCS, passed over for a National Championship berth in favor of the same Oklahoma Sooners (-7) they beat 45-35 at the Red River Shootout.
The difference between the two paths taken can be seen in the betting odds: Ohio State is an 8-point dog at most books, although you can also find the Buckeyes at +8½ if you do your shopping. You can also look at Brian Fremeau’s influential stat-driven power rankings and find the Longhorns at No. 4 going into the last week of the season, with OSU dragging behind at No. 12. But those power numbers cover the entire season; if you had to pick the hotter team of the two heading into the postseason, you’d have to pick Ohio State.
Most of OSU’s troubles in 2008 happened early in the season, culminating in an embarrassing 35-3 loss at USC (-10.5). Since then, the Buckeyes have turned to freshman QB Terrelle Pryor, who has delivered 12 TD throws (with just four picks) and rushed for another six majors. The Buckeyes have also benefited greatly from the return of RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, third in the Big Ten with 1,091 yards rushing despite injuring his right foot in the season opener and missing the next three games – including the loss to the Trojans. Since then, Ohio State is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS, the only defeat coming at the hands of the conference champs from Penn State (-1½).
While the Buckeyes struggled through September, Texas was on the way to something great. The Longhorns plowed their way though their first five opponents by a combined score of 236-57. Then they dusted off the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl and made a meal of Missouri before finally hitting some potholes. But Texas dropped the cash in each of its next three games, including a 39-33 loss to Texas Tech (+3½) that knocked the ‘Horns out of first place in the polls. A pair of easy wins over Kansas (+14) and Texas A&M (+35) couldn’t get the Burnt Orange back into the BCS title game.
The Longhorns aren’t necessarily good fade candidates in and of themselves based on their recent 0-3 ATS mini-slump, but the Buckeyes certainly have betting value as a team that turned from a caterpillar to a butterfly in midseason – granted, an ugly Big Ten butterfly that nobody wants. We also have a pair of OSU-Texas matchups in 2005-06 that suggest Ohio State is undervalued this week. Vince Young’s Longhorns eked out a victory in the first game, 25-22 as 1.5-point road dogs. Colt McCoy was under center for the rematch, which Troy Smith’s Buckeyes (+3) won 24-7 at Texas Memorial.
The Xs and Os on the ground point toward a competitive rubber match between these two elite programs. On one side, McCoy leads a brilliant Texas offense against the notoriously tough Buckeyes defense, with three-time All-American LB James Laurinaitis back for a second helping after chewing up the Longhorns in the 2006 game.
On the other side, Texas has one of the few top-level defenses in the Big 12, while Ohio State has definitely gotten its act together as a running team with Pryor and Wells. The ‘Horns have allowed a mere 2.79 yards per carry this year – although that was coming out of a pass-happy conference. Texas only faced 317 rushing attempts during the regular season, the fewest in the FBS. The Buckeyes ran the ball 501 times this year, No. 25 in the nation and second only to Wisconsin (567) in the Big Ten.
Given that Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowls as the chalk, there’s ample reason to support Ohio State in what should be a very entertaining Fiesta Bowl. The fact that only 20 percent of bettors agree, according to market reports at press time, is a good thing for value-based handicappers. The betting public is what it is.