Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 15, Dec 4-6)

**Willie Bee** · 12-04-08, 11:18 AM

UCLA Bruins +32½ cash against the USC Trojans
Game Time: 12/06/2008 04:30 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

This series has literally gone to the dogs with the favorites cashing just nine times in 27 years. Take the UCLA Bruins and the points against their Pac 10 rivals from USC.

Our Saturday college football selection is on the UCLA Bruins plus the points at home over the Southern Cal Trojans.

This rivalry, like many in college football, goes to the underdog. Since 1981, the underdog is 18-9 ATS in this series. And the bigger the point spread, the better the underdog has performed. When the line is greater than six points, the dog is a super 10-2, 83% ATS.

Also, this game will be played on UCLA's home field in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl, and the home dog is 10-3 ATS in this series. Finally, since 1980, UCLA is 27-10 ATS as a home dog (or Pk). Take the points.

Free Pick: UCLA +32½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-04-08, 11:20 AM

SEC Championship: Florida Gators -9 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Game Time: 12/06/2008 04:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Nobody is playing better than the Gators on both sides of the ball right now. Lay the points and follow Florida in the SEC Championship against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

This is a matchup that pits a big physical Alabama side against a a athletic s speedy group of Gators. One of these teams plays in slow motion, while the other in fast forward. Let's pause in a look at the tale of the tape.

Florida's vaunted offense goes after opponents with numerous attributes via a variety of looks. Heisman winner Tim Tebow can run over you with his legs or unload down field to Percy Harvin and Jeffery Demps and Chris Rainey out of the backfield as was evident last week against a solid Florida State team, pounding them for 502 total yards of offense which ended in a 45-15 decision as 15-point favorites in the rain. Stopping the Gators is like trying hit 20 Nolan Ryan fastballs all at once. Needless to say, I do not care how well Alabama's defense has played this season, they are in for some big headaches against the fastest college football team in the nation on both sides of the ball.

Florida owns the country's 17th-ranked offense while Alabama counters with the third-ranked defense in the nation. A closer look on how these numbers and rankings were accumulated show us that Nick Saban and his Tide's defensive stats were padded against some lower level offenses, including five opponents that rank lower than the top 100 in the nation. Only two opponents ranked in the top 50.

Meanwhile, Urban Meyer's offense has hammered their opponents for an average of 46.3 PPG on the season, with four of their victims defenses ranking 16th or better.

The Crimson Tide fires back with the 53rd-ranked offense against the Gators' seventh-ranked defense. Unfortunately for the Tide, their offense has become very predictable and one dimensional. Alabama's use of a slow, plodding ground attack behind a huge offensive line will be easy to read, and thus easily slowed by one the nastiest and fastest Front 7's in the nation. It must also be noted that the Gators' run D ranks 12th in the country.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Urban Meyer has said his coaching staff is well prepared after watching game film of the Tide for the past two weeks. He is considered by many the best tape analyzer in all of football. The Gators have covered all six games they have played against above .500 teams this season, winning SU by an average of 39.2 PPG.

Gators win big...Projected Score: Florida-34 Alabama-17

Free Pick: Florida -9 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-04-08, 11:21 AM

California Golden Bears -35½ send Washington Huskies to 0-12
Game Time: 12/06/2008 03:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

It's a ton of chalk, but let's face it: Washington is a ton of bad this season. Look for the California Golden Bears to end the Huskies' season on a losing note this Saturday.

Good news. The Washington Huskies played a competitive game last week. Bad news. That game came against in-state rival, Washington State, the only other team on the West Coast as bad as them.

The Huskies couldn't even win either, losing by a score of 16-13. Including that result Washington is now 0-9 SU/ATS its last nine games and an awful 1-10 ATS (0-11 SU) on the season. There's no reason to think that the Huskies will be able to hang with Bears either.

You may recall what happened when Cal took on Washington State. The Bears won 66-3! That was on the road, too. This should be another one-sided affair. Lay the big number.

Free Pick: California -35½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-04-08, 11:22 AM

USC Trojans, UCLA Bruins Under 47½
Game Time: 12/06/2008 04:30 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

USC has limited six of eight Pac-10 foes to 10 points or less, but do not forget that the UCLA defense has also played very well the last two games. Look for the inspired Bruins to keep this game Under.

The USC Trojans have allowed 10 points or less in six of their eight Pac-10 games this season, and we do not expect the pathetic UCLA Bruins offense to reach double-digits here.

It should also be noted, however, that the USC offense is averaging 37.1 points in conference, and they may not quite be on top of their game here knowing that they now have virtually no chance of playing in the BCS Championship Game. It would not be at all surprising if this game resembles the meeting between these clubs last season, when the Trojans won just 24-7.

Now make no mistake, the Bruins are terrible this season. That said, their defense has actually played very well the last two games. Yes, holding Washington to seven points does not mean much, but they followed up that effort by incredibly limiting Arizona State to only 127 total yards of offense last week.

It is fairly amazing that they lost that game 34-9, but consider that they did not allow a single offensive touchdown, as the four Sun Devils touchdowns came on three interception returns and a fumble return! Also, UCLA will no doubt be the more motivated team this weak, so we feel an inspired defense can keep this final score quasi-respectable if they could match their efforts of the last two contests.

Thus, the end result should be a much lower scoring game than many people expect.

Free Pick: USC, UCLA Under 47½ (-110)

**GODFATHER** · 12-04-08, 01:17 PM

Good luck to you on your picks.

No disrespect but Navy will whip Army's azz, wont even be close

**rockhardfister** · 12-05-08, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by GODFATHER

Good luck to you on your picks.

No disrespect but Navy will whip Army's azz, wont even be close

Also no disrespect but UCLA QB couldnt start for my HS team....they will be lucky to move the ball across the 50. USC defense will also have at least 2 TD's. I agree with the under

45-0

**jraines** · 12-05-08, 07:42 AM

i think navy will roll too, but the other selections you made i like 32.5 seems tempting but again it is USC.

**Willie Bee** · 12-06-08, 10:18 AM

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma Sooners -16½ vs. Missouri Tigers

Game Time: 12/06/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

Led by Heisman hopeful Sam Bradford, Oklahoma's offense is clicking on all fronts right now. Side with the Sooners vs. the Missouri Tigers today in the Big 12 Championship.

It boils down to Oklahoma who was given the nod by the BCS point system to represent the South division of the Big 12 after walking through both Okie State and pounding Texas Tech into the ground. OU is playing as good of football as any team in the USA right now, and I agree with the call for them to represent the South.

Mizzou on the other hand was dealt back-to-back fatal blows early on this season with a home loss to Oklahoma State following by a good Ol fashion woodshed beating from Texas and they have not been the same since. Take into account other than Arkansas and Kansas last year, Missouri has no quality wins over a ranked opponent with this highly touted team, and they are off a devastating loss week to Kansas that threw it all over them at will at Arrowhead stadium. I do respect the MU program, but without a defense, you cannot win big games, just watch last week's game film.

Missouri's biggest issue here in terms of competing is twofold. QB Chase Daniel has proven to be less than effective with the pressure on him, and OU can get to the passer. The major issue for Mizzou is no pass rush, and when you give OU quarterback Sam Bradford all day to throw and then pound RB Murray at a weak front four, it makes it a total mis-match up front, and with the skill players and excellent coaching OU has, I sniff a blowout.

Many think that Mizzou with nothing to lose here will play wide open and compete in their backyard, I beg to differ. Oklahoma beat them twice last year, both times in convincing fashion. I see a better OU team this year than last year with a national title on the line while Missouri simply cannot trade punches on offense to match what OU will put up.

Prediction: Sooners-52 Tigers-28

Free Pick: Oklahoma -16½ (-108)

**Willie Bee** · 12-06-08, 10:19 AM

California Golden Bears -35½ rout Washington Huskies

Game Time: 12/06/2008 03:00 PM -
By: Cajun Sports | cajun-sports.com

It's the end of the Tyrone Willingham Era for the Huskies, and the last act will not be pretty. Look for the Cal Bears to demolish Washington today at home in Berkeley.

The Tyrone Willingham era at Washington comes to an end this weekend as he and his Huskies make one final trip to take on the Golden Bears. Washington is winless on the season and have actually lost 13 straight games dating back to last season.

California managed to pick up their seventh win of 2008 and snap a two-game slide at the same time back on November 22 with a 37-16 rout of Stanford.

Washington's troubles this season were made worse with unproven quarterbacks after Jake Locker went down with an injury. The Huskies have had to turn to youngster Ronnie Fouch to try and shake them out of their funk but it just hasn't happened. Fouch has completed a mere 45% of his attempts for 4 TDS and 12 INTs.

With an offense that is second-to-last in the conference and 117th in the nation in scoring at less than 14 ppg, the Huskies needed the defense to step up and play big this season and that never happened. Except for the meeting with Washington State when it allowed a mere 16 points in two overtimes, the unit allowed no less than 27 points in any one contest and averaged nearly 38 ppg permitted, which is 115th in the country. The run defense has really been beaten down, allowing more than 220 ypg, while the pass defense has basically given up the same. The “push” up front has been missing almost all season with the team checking in last in the conference in both sacks and tackles for loss.

Cal head coach Jeff Tedford is gunning for his third undefeated season at home during his tenure with the Golden Bears and will be calling upon Kevin Riley. The QB has completed 51% of his pass attempts for 134 ypg and 14 TDs and, along with Nate Longshore, has been able to spread the ball to several different players down the field. Jahvid Best is easily the most productive performer with his 1,083 rushing yards and 9 TDs. His average of 108 ypg in his 10 appearances ranks him second in the conference and 19th nationally entering play this week.

The Golden Bears aerial defense for the season has been pretty solid. In fact, Cal's pass efficiency defense ranks second in the Pac-10 and 10th in the nation overall with a rating of 99.57 through 11 games. A big part of that number comes from the fact that the secondary has come up with an average of nearly two interceptions per game, which is bad news for the Huskies.

We’ve played against Washington on numerous occasions this season, while never backing them, and we’re not about to start here. We’ve been fading the Huskies knowing Willingham was on the hot seat, and the team has let him down game after game, so there’s no reason to believe that they will suddenly play a competitive game against a quality opponent.

One of our handicapping rules is to play against or at least not on a weak team that is on a spread-losing streak. A bad team that apparently is not even capable of a decent performance once in a while should be faded whenever possible, and Washington is 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) in its last 9 games. Their last win came 14 games ago when they upset California in Seattle last season. The last thing Washington needs now is to face a team with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, as the Huskies are 0-4 SU & ATS the last two years vs. opponents playing with revenge. The Bears are 5-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite with revenge for a SU loss the previous season since 2007.

Cal is also active for an NCAA Football Power System, as very large home favorites at the right price have been strong in the final game of the season. Specifically, in their final home game, play on a conference home favorite of 30½-36½ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU loss and ATS win. These hosts are perfect since at least 1980, which is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, so they may actually be better than our numbers, which have the teams at a sparkling 12-0 SU (+45.9 ppg) and 12-0 ATS (+13 ppg).

Once they fall behind, there’s little reason to believe the Huskies will put up much of a fight as they resign themselves to a winless season. Meanwhile, the Bears can improve their bowl destination with an impressive showing here, which is what we expect.

Projected Final Score: Golden Bears-49 Huskies-7

Free Pick: California -35½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-06-08, 10:20 AM

Tulsa Golden Hurricane -11½ blow past East Carolina Pirates
Game Time: 12/06/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

Tulsa has too much offense for East Carolina to keep up today. Lay the points and take the high-flying Golden Hurricane at home in Chapman Stadium vs. East Carolina.

If this game was played at any other stadium, I would be a little nervous about laying close to two touchdowns with Tulsa. However, in the friendly confines of H.A. Chapman Stadium, the Golden Hurricane have been a force. Tulsa has won 10 straight in its own backyard including their last seven by an average of 40.7 points per game!

Offensively, Tulsa has been outstanding. The Golden Hurricane average 49.3 points and 578.9 total yards per game. The man that makes this unit click is quarterback David Johnson. Ranked No. 1 nationally in passing efficiency (192.4), Johnson has pitched the pigskin around for 3,671 yards or an average of 305.9 passing yards per game. East Carolina’s defensive front four is solid. However, given time to throw, Johnson should pick apart a Pirates secondary that has surrendered an average of 196.8 yards per game.

If you want to beat the Golden Hurricane, you better be able to put points on the board. ECU has struggled to do that this season. Currently ranked 80th in scoring offense (23.5 ppg) and 78th in total offense (340.8 ypg), the Pirates may not be able to find the endzone enough times to match Tulsa point-for-point.

If East Carolina turns the football over in this contest and gives the Hurricane’s offense more touches, the Pirates will be in serious trouble.

Respect is certainly given to an ECU team that has recorded a solid 7-1 ATS record in its last eight priced as a double-digit underdog. However, the Golden Hurricane have been unstoppable at home and they’ve cashed 12 of their last 16 in their own backyard coming off a momentum building straight up win. Take Tulsa!

Free Pick: Tulsa -11½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-06-08, 10:21 AM

Alabama Crimson Tide +10½ bites Florida Gators
Game Time: 12/06/2008 04:00 PM -
By: Stephen Nover | experts.covers.com

It's No. 1 vs. No. 2, with the top-ranked Crimson Tide double-digit dogs. Take Alabama and the points when they meet the Florida Gators in the SEC title game.

The No. 2 team in the country is a double-digit favorite over the top-ranked school. Are the pollsters that far off?

Not when it comes to this SEC championship game between Alabama and Florida. These are two outstanding teams that are near even statistically. Florida has the more explosive offense. But Alabama has the better defense, can run the ball, is road tested and has fewer key injuries.

All of this puts me on the Crimson Tide at this big of a spread. You don't get a class underdog like this every day.

Alabama is averaging 202 yards rushing per game led by Glen Coffee, who is averaging 6.2 yards per run. The Tide allows just 2.7 yards per rush. Alabama has recorded 23 sacks, has 24 takeaways and has allowed only a 25 percent success rate on third-down conversion attempts.

Alabama definitely can control the line of scrimmage and win the battle of the trenches. Florida hasn't quite encountered such a physical, pounding foe. The Crimson Tide owns road victories against Georgia, LSU and Clemson. It's a real insult for Alabama to be such a heavy underdog.

Next to Tim Tebow, Florida's most valuable offensive player is versatile Percy Harvin. He has accounted for more than 1,000 yards rushing and receiving and has scored 16 touchdowns. He couldn't practice this week because of an ankle sprain. The Gators' leading rusher, Chris Rainey, also is banged-up with a groin injury. Rainey should play, while Harvin is questionable and would be less than 100 percent if he did play.

Free Pick: Alabama +10½ (-110)