Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 14, Nov 27-29)

[Willie Bee]

Florida International +5 to get revenge on Florida Atlantic

Game Time: 11/29/2008 04:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

This game is on a neutral field, and Florida International has held their own on the road vs. similar teams. They are also playing with double revenge. Take the points.

This is a double revenge spot for the Florida International Golden Panthers, who lost this rivalry matchup each of the last two years including an embarrassing 55-23 defeat at home last season.

Very little separates these teams this season however, as FIU is averaging 21.9 points per game giving up 28.0 points per contest, while FAU is scoring 22.3 and allowing 27.5. With numbers this close, this game should come down to intangibles, so the huge revenge motive becomes even more significant here.

Also note that this game is on a neutral field, and FIU has been the more competitive of these teams away from home this season. The Golden Panthers are averaging a respectable 21.7 points per game on the road, and while they are losing their road games by an average of -10.0 points, that is only because they lost at Iowa 42-0 and at Kansas 40-10. They have more than held their own with teams that are on the same level.

Conversely, FAU has struggled on the road, averaging just 13.3 points while losing by an average of -14.7 points per game. They also look awful in a 28-14 loss at Arkansas State last week, as the game was not as close as the score would indicate. In fact, the Owls were outgained by a total of 223 total yards.

All things considered, this game should be a lot closer to a Pick, so we see good value with Florida International at this price.

Free Pick: Florida International +5 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Alabama Crimson Tide -14½ wins Iron Bowl vs. Auburn Tigers

Game Time: 11/29/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Cajun Sports | cajun-sports.com

Saturday will determine bragging rights in The Heart of Dixie at the 73rd Iron Bowl. Look for the Alabama Crimson Tide to roll past the Auburn Tigers with a cover.

Last week on these pages we gave you another winning selection and system as Ole Miss was our “Conference Avenger” and they not only covered but won the game straight up over LSU. That makes this articles record now 8-3 ATS this season and four straight!

This week we take a look at the Alabama/Auburn game which actually has significance 365 days a year to all Alabamians. Yes, the Iron Bowl is the most heated rivalry game in the country and we have learned this from firsthand experience. Alabamians literally allow this game’s outcome to determine how they feel for 365 days a year.

This season the game has national title implications for the first time in awhile and the Tide could actually keep the Tigers from becoming bowl eligible. It would take Alabama breaking a losing streak of six games for that to happen as Auburn has owned this series of late. The Crimson Tide has not won the Iron Bowl since 2001.

Nick Saban was primarily hired for this one game. The 'Bama faithful had taken all they could stand from the plains and they were willing to pay Saban whatever he wanted because they were convinced he was the person that could turn the Tide program around sooner rather than later. Well it appears they were right because in Saban’s second season the oddsmakers have posted Alabama as a 14½-point favorite, this on a team that has lost six in a row to their opponent.

Neither coach has to get their team motivated for this rivalry but the Tigers are certainly not the Tigers of the past six seasons. This is a much improved Tide team that Auburn will face this season compared to Alabama teams the last few years. Auburn’s offense ranks 99th in the nation while Alabama’s defense ranks third. In years past one would say that doesn’t matter because this is a rivalry game but the team with the 99th ranked offense has won the last six seasons and may not approach this contest with the same vigor as in years past.

This week our College Football System of the Week is active in the Iron Bowl and it tells us that from Game 8 on, play on an undefeated Saturday home team with 9+ days rest and not 14+ days rest before that vs. an opponent not off a conference underdog SU loss of 5+ points, going 15-0 ATS since 1992 and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game!

The Crimson Tide faithful get what they paid for as Coach “S” leads his team to the win and cover over the boys from the plains on Saturday and the Tiger faithful have to face the dreaded “L” for 365. Good luck with the Tide on Saturday and please have a safe and happy holiday!

Free Pick: Alabama -14½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

North Carolina State Wolfpack +2 vs. Miami Hurricanes

Game Time: 11/29/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | experts.covers.com

North Carolina State is looking for a bowl bid with a win on Saturday at home. Win with the Wolfpack when the Miami (FL) Hurricanes travel to Raleigh for an ACC showdown.

North Carolina State has once again emerged as a possible bowl contender. With three straight wins, the Wolfpack are 5-6 and are one victory away from becoming bowl eligible. They are coming off a huge road win at rival North Carolina and pieces from last season will pay a big role in this game.

NC State went to Miami last season and defeated the Hurricanes in overtime. That was the third of four straight wins for the Wolfpack who started the season 1-5 and were in a similar position they are now. They were 5-5 and with two games left, all they needed was one win to make it to a bowl game after missing out in 2006. NC State was hammered at Wake Forest but still had a shot with a home game against Maryland. The Wolfpack were obliterated at home by the Terrapins 37-0 and were without a postseason spot for a second straight year. With this being the same scenario as last season, look for NC State to look back at that lesson learned and come out strong on Saturday.

Watching Miami on Thursday showed that it recent five-game winning streak may have been a fluke. I thought the Hurricanes would have come in with more energy riding a big streak but they were smacked in the face early and often and were crushed by the Yellow Jackets. Looking back at the run shows only one big win at Duke with the other four victories coming by a touchdown or less. The hurricanes are young and it certainly showed and coming back off that defeat will be even tougher.

At the start of the season, redshirt freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was fourth on the depth chart and it looked as though playing time would be sparse. However, he has come along quickly as is turning into one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. He has passed for 14 touchdowns while only tossing one interception. He has thrown five touchdown passes in each of his last five games and is coming off his best performance of the season where he threw for a season high 279 yards.

The Wolfpack have not been a strong rushing team but they have come on of late, culminating with a season high 187 yards against the Tar Heels. After averaging 80 ypg through their first six games, they have put up an average of 161.4 ypg over their last five games. Miami went into the Georgia Tech game with the 19th ranked rushing defense. It came out ranked 57th after allowing an unheard of 486 yards rushing. Don’t expect those kinds of numbers from NC State but the balance will keep Miami on its heels.

Free Pick: North Carolina State +2 (-110)