Saint Andrew now discussing Florida / Vandy

[St. Andrew]

The line I'm seeing everywhere is UF -23.5. I say buy half a point and nail Vandy +24.

I like that Vandy is coming off a bye and UF just finished their biggest game of the year. I also like that Vandy has absolutely zero pressure in this game, unlike the Duke game where everyone expected them to become bowl eligible for first time since 1982. Vandy choked under that pressure, but today nobody expects them to even hang with Florida. So today Vandy can pull out all the stops: air it out, pull some gadget plays, blitz on first down, and see what happens in front of a sold-out frenzied fan base. The fans love the 'Dores no matter what happens today, and I think the 'Dores will play hard for them.

Now let's not forget.....this is the SEC where strange upsets occur frequently. Even Vandy can win on any given Saturday. I'm not saying it will happen today, but 24 points is ALOT of points in the SEC when you're on the road. UF has been blowing teams out lately, but they haven't played a true road game in 5 weeks! In 2006, UF came into Nashville and had to hang on for 25-19 win.

Vandy has a great defense, statistically the best in the league besides UF and Bama. Vandy has already beaten South Carolina and Auburn at home and Ole Miss on the road. Last year MacKenzie Adams did throw 2 TDs against UF in the Swamp, so it can happen. Based on ppg / pf/ pa/ sagarin / road and home performance/ situational stats, I have this game:

Florida 33
Vandy 13

VAndy +24

[St. Andrew]

Vandy ATS this year as an underdog: 5-0
VAndy ATS this year vs team w/winning record: 3-0

[atlsportsfan]

Good post, Im just a bit gun shy betting against the gators. Ive lost taking the big number on them all year. Myer has stuck it to me too many times late in the game when most teams just work the clock he runs up the score to get the cover. I still think Vandy is a good pick tonight at home though, Im just going to lay off. BOL to you

[St. Andrew]

Good post, Im just a bit gun shy betting against the gators. Ive lost taking the big number on them all year. Myer has stuck it to me too many times late in the game when most teams just work the clock he runs up the score to get the cover. I still think Vandy is a good pick tonight at home though, Im just going to lay off. BOL to you

If UF wins they clinch SEC East and will go to Atlanta for conf title game. So today if they have a big lead in the 4th I look for Tebow and Harvin to get pulled so as not to risk injury for the possible BCS title run. Just my thoughts....Vandy could sneak the cover during garbage time regardless of score.

[onlooker]

If I was to bet this one, I would take the points and Vanderbilt as well. Here is how I capped this game.

Florida -13
Vanderbilt 45

With the score being 29-16.

Good luck.

[Seattle Slew]

I like Vanderbilt as well. Their offense stinks, but their defense is pretty good. If they can avoid a big first quarter from Florida and get into the game, I think they have a shot to keep it close. I think the spread is way too high here.

[St. Andrew]

Tim Tebow was wearing an ankle boot during the press conference after the Georgia game. I wonder if he is 100%. Covers actually has him listed as injured but "probable." I don't see Urban Meyer keeping him in any longer than necessary.

[Seattle Slew]

Sometimes you see in the first 5 minutes how bad a pick is. Tonight was that night with Vanderbilt. What a dolt I am.

[Seattle Slew]

Didn't realize Vandy had a golden chance with 3 minutes left to get the cover.

[St. Andrew]

Didn't realize Vandy had a golden chance with 3 minutes left to get the cover.

This game turned out exactly as I thought it would. Tebow got pulled for the entire 2nd half and Vandy had a chance for the back-door cover. They were on the 7-yd line for the cover TD as the game was closing up. Nickson got rushed and threw the ball away. Life goes on.

[mmike032]

The first game of the Tebows career that Urban pulled him before they were up by 45, and I bet the gators 2nd half-10