Saint Andrew discusses Fresno/Nevada

**ZBOIZ** · 11-07-08, 11:19 AM

How you feel about the total?

**CaneDawg** · 11-07-08, 11:36 AM

he likes the under

predicted 35-24

total is 70

**ZBOIZ** · 11-07-08, 11:36 AM

Guys go look at the percentage on Nevada and then look at the line movement.

Fresno is a trap!!

**mmike032** · 11-07-08, 11:39 AM

i seeing 54% on the dog and the line dropped .5 point?
how is that a trap?

**ZBOIZ** · 11-07-08, 11:40 AM

The line opened at Fresno -2.5 and now it's currently at Nevada -2 and even 3.5 some places!

With only 30% on Nevada and 69% on Fresno

**St. Andrew** · 11-07-08, 11:42 AM

I saw -1.5 on Greek one hour ago.

**ZBOIZ** · 11-07-08, 11:43 AM

I know it's at 3.5 at 5dimes!

**sportsguy04** · 11-07-08, 11:44 AM

Nevada is the better team anyway. Nevada should have 300 yards rushing. Fresno State will probably throw all over Nevada. But eh thats alright, I trust Nevadas offense more then fresnos.

Nevada covers.

**sportsguy04** · 11-07-08, 11:45 AM

"Nevada is a very mediocre 3-4 ATS while Fresno is a disastrous 1-8 ATS. After covering in the season opener at Rutgers, the Bulldogs have failed to cover eight in a row. They are on a six-game run of failing to cover as a favorite with two outright losses that includes a home defeat to Hawaii as a 21-point favorite.

In these last six games, Fresno has gone over the total five times with the sixth being a push. "

- covers.com

**St. Andrew** · 11-07-08, 12:02 PM

Putting aside my projected score, let's look at the total.

Here's a model that Durito or any other statistican would probably destroy. But I'm curious to see how it works tonight.

1. The average Sagarin rating of Nevada's opponents is 96.
2. The average Sagarin rating of Fresno's opponents is 97.
3. Nevada has averaged 38 ppg this year.
4. Fresno has averaged 33 ppg this year.
5. Nevada's Sagarin rating is 81.
6. Fresno's Sagarin rating is 85.

Set up the ratios for each team:

Nevada's Score: 85/96 X 38 =
Nevada: 34

Fresno's Score: 81/97 X 33 =
Fresno: 28

TOTAL: 62
(but remember that Fresno will be without their top two RBs, so that will drive the score down further)

**AMBlai01** · 11-07-08, 12:12 PM

I really think the Under is the right play on this game...Don't want to touch either side...

**ryanXL977** · 11-07-08, 12:17 PM

home dog

**St. Andrew** · 11-07-08, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by AMBlai01

I really think the Under is the right play on this game...Don't want to touch either side...

Statfox:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEVADA games 74.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (23-8).

Did it move? Which way?

**sportsguy04** · 11-07-08, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

Statfox:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEVADA games 74.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (23-8).

Did it move? Which way?

Fresno was favored now Nevada is favored.

**donjuan** · 11-07-08, 08:44 PM

Here's a model that Durito or any other statistican would probably destroy. But I'm curious to see how it works tonight.

Gotta love a model that pays no attention to HFA.

**St. Andrew** · 11-07-08, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

Gotta love a model that pays no attention to HFA.

HFA would only matter if I was using the model to pick sides. I was using it for a total.

**rm18** · 11-07-08, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

home dog

They are only the home dog because the line moved 5 points, take the under

**TheLock** · 11-07-08, 09:32 PM

Nevada should be up 14 already

7-0

**ryanXL977** · 11-07-08, 09:33 PM

should be 0-0 if a bad call didnt go for nevada
plus an int

should be 7-0 fres using that logic

**TheLock** · 11-07-08, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

should be 0-0 if a bad call didnt go for nevada
plus an int

should be 7-0 fres using that logic

ryan, Nevada was steamrolling their first drive. Fresno couldnt stop the run and somehow Nevada got no points after the FG went wide right

Do you really feel Fresno is outplaying Nevada right now?

**CaneDawg** · 11-07-08, 09:37 PM

fresno needs to quit trying to run

it aint gonna happen

put it on the qb's back...like they do every week

**St. Andrew** · 11-08-08, 12:35 AM

The line on this game was originally Fresno -2.5. They lose by 13. Vegas / Carib set the line to what they think the public will play, not what reality represents. -2.5 on Fresno is a laughable insult to sportsbettors who research.

Which brings another point: why would anyone pay for picks when the info you need is all online.

**McRich** · 11-08-08, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

Fresno will be one-dimensional tonight since both of their RBs are banged-up and will take limited reps (if they even play). Also, Nevada is 3rd in the nation in rush defense.

Brandstater will have to carry Fresno on his shoulders. I don't like putting faith in one person to win a game. Yes, Nevada's pass defense looks statistically atrocious, but you have to remember that they played Texas Tech, Missouri and Hawaii (which will skew the stats of any team).

Look deeper:

- Nevada's rushing attack is ranked 2nd in the nation. Fresno's rushing defense is non-existent (see La Tech last week)

- In addition to running wild on 8.5 ypc, Kaepernick is completing 60.7 percent of his passes for 12 TDs and only 4 picks.

- Fresno is ranked embarassing 115th in tackles for loss and 104th in sacks. Kaepernick will have all day to pick his weapons (feet or arm)

Bottom line: Nevada has played tougher opponents than Fresno has faced, yet still has outscored Fresno 303-264 DESPITE having to play both Texas Tech and Missouri.

Where did they get this line?

Predicted Score
Fresh-from-bye Nevada 35
Disappointed-at-their-season Fresno 24

Nice work on the capping. I went with your analysis and won on Nevada and a Nevada/under parlay!!!