Kelly Criterion: Do you use it?

[TheCalculator]

Good stuff. Glad you're doing the research, it will pay dividends down the line.

Read everything by Ganchrow.

Ganchrow is a genius.

[varkolek]

why doesn`t someone put up a running thread from this point forward applying kelly to their wagers so the rest of us can see it actually work in real time.......

like vaughany,ecco,ill and hoff do....keep it in the same thread so it`s right there as proof positive that it`s solid bankroll mgmt....

it`s possible that the person that undertakes this effort is a lousy mma capper,but i`d enjoy seeing how the bankroll mgmt issue plays out.....


anybody interested in showing the rest of us?...

I was going to split out a portion of my bankroll and use it with my bracketed probabilities. Like if I think the fight is even go with a conservative estimate, 40%, if I think one fighter has an advantage 60%, etc. But I realised the formula is too sensitive for that.

At odds of -300 or 1.333... the stake at 75% probability is zero % of BR, but 20% of your bankroll at 80% probability:
at 76 is 4
77 is 8
78 is 12
79 is 16

So the portion of your bankroll is zero at 75, but climbing at 4% for each percentage of probability. That got mentioned in one of the threads I linked to. At quarter Kelly stakes you might bet 0 at 75% and 5% BR at 80%, but I don't have confidence in my ability to estimate within +/- 5% of who is going to win.

For other sports it is probably possible to estimate to greater accuracy than 5% but I only bet on combat sports so far.

Also, I read some of Ganchrow's articles and realised Kelly staking isn't just betting heavy on dogs. In terms of edge, you bet less on dogs and more on favourites.

[rocky mattioli]

I was going to split out a portion of my bankroll and use it with my bracketed probabilities. Like if I think the fight is even go with a conservative estimate, 40%, if I think one fighter has an advantage 60%, etc. But I realised the formula is too sensitive for that.

At odds of -300 or 1.333... the stake at 75% probability is zero % of BR, but 20% of your bankroll at 80% probability:
at 76 is 4
77 is 8
78 is 12
79 is 16

So the portion of your bankroll is zero at 75, but climbing at 4% for each percentage of probability. That got mentioned in one of the threads I linked to. At quarter Kelly stakes you might bet 0 at 75% and 5% BR at 80%, but I don't have confidence in my ability to estimate within +/- 5% of who is going to win.

For other sports it is probably possible to estimate to greater accuracy than 5% but I only bet on combat sports so far.

Also, I read some of Ganchrow's articles and realised Kelly staking isn't just betting heavy on dogs. In terms of edge, you bet less on dogs and more on favourites.

be great if you did...always willing to watch and learn...the problem i see is the probability ratios are totally subjective...if you`re a lousy judge of talent and/or match-ups it probably won`t do much good...but most on here are knowledgable mma fans so it`s possible that it could be of some benefit...

all credit due from here if you pick up the gauntlet in a public forum...ballsy.....all the best...

[varkolek]

all credit due from here if you pick up the gauntlet in a public forum...ballsy.....all the best...

No, I can't. I can only quantify that I have an edge, can't quantify what the edge is.

Many gamblers but not all in the SBR Think Tank use fractional Kelly for NFL and such, and a top sports gambler was mentioned in those threads as using half kelly. Apparently it's very good for Blackjack along with counting cards. But I will probably never branch out of combat sports, except once a year I bet on horses.

Also, someone mentioned he thinks the best application of fully Kelly is the stock market, where you have stop points. Like if you begin losing you can sell or recover some, it's not like sports betting where you blink and a 50% stake is gone.

Technically, what I do isn't flat betting either and doesn't have risk of ruin. Flat betting apparently is betting set units, for example starting at $100 and betting $10 each time. But flat betting a percentage of BR is different, and it allows for compounding as does kelly. Some people in the think tank were saying the best thing to take from Kelly is to stake a percentage of your bankroll not set units.

[Vaughany]

be great if you did...always willing to watch and learn...the problem i see is the probability ratios are totally subjective...if you`re a lousy judge of talent and/or match-ups it probably won`t do much good...but most on here are knowledgable mma fans so it`s possible that it could be of some benefit...

all credit due from here if you pick up the gauntlet in a public forum...ballsy.....all the best...

One of the key things