Parlays -- there's really 2 schools of thought about them. And I'd like to discuss some middle ground views.
School #1. The handicap newbie's CRACK. It's the equivalent of creating your very own LOTTERY tickets with your favorite fighters and underdogs... and props.
Bet small AND WIN BIG! That's the "hook" of parlays.
Downside? Very, very low chance of hitting it and winning. Usually erodes bankroll over time.
School #2. Die hard mathematically and statistically driven handicappers who don't think they've very smart.
And there's A LOT OF TRUTH to this as well. On the bottom of this point you'll find some highly suggested reading about parlays (including some from Van1ty).
Upside: Very smart lower risk way to manage bets and money.
Downside? Read the situations in School #3.
School #3: Using them in the right situations. (Van1ty's articles mention some of these situations briefly but I think it's worth discussing here).
Situation A: Real time partial parlays
Recently -- I decided I wanted to do partial parlays in REAL TIME.
What this means is -- I would win a bet -- and then take a portion of the winnings (not all) and roll them into my next bet and so on.
I figured this was smarter for a couple of reasons.
First -- I wasn't putting 100% of my winnings into my next bet. This means I was saving winnings as I was progressing -- but at the same time I was increasing my bets as the fights went on. And I would use the kelly criterion to determine how much to reinvest into the next fight.
Here's an example:
Fight 1: Bet $1000 and win $500 (total $1500) -- kelly criterion says invest 20% into my next fight (which is $300) And save $1200.
Fight 2: Already bet $700 -- NOW add $300 (total $1000). Win $1300. Adjusted roll: $2500. Run the kelly formula and it says to invest 10% into my next fight (which is $250) and now I have $2250 in my pocket.
And so on...
Well -- here's the REALITY of what happened.
Most of the books didn't settle the bets fast enough to be able to do this.
The ONLY book that settle fights within seconds was 5dimes.
The Greek & Bodog was 2nd place. (5 to 15 minutes)
Bookmaker was next.
Pinnacle took 20 minutes +
BetFair was very slow (45 minutes +).
PaddyPower took 8 hours (must of been something wrong).
So I couldn't roll the bets into each other like most mathematicians would tell you to do.
It just wasn't possible.
Situation B: to bet parlays: LOCK IN odds.
Last week -- juicy odds came out on a fight that's a few weeks away. I locked in a few simple parlays with locks
. The odds went up 80 notches since then (and they'll probably move up even more before fight time).
Note: these aren't crazy parlays with a bunch of dogs that I hope are going to win. lol They were mainly 2 men parlays that I wanted to lock in the odds and made smaller plays (adjusted to kelly levels).
Situation C: Can't place bets in real time.
Sometimes I go watch the fights with my buddies at a sports bar. I don't bring my laptop with me. lol IN those situations -- obviously I can't be doing real time parlays so I have to set up my plan in advance.
In closing -- I think parlays have their place (personally 5% to 10% of my wagers). I think being strategic about them and keeping the amounts to relatively small amounts (using kelly to calculate how much) is the solution.
Here's some of the best reading I've found on parlays:
Hope this helps.
School #1. The handicap newbie's CRACK. It's the equivalent of creating your very own LOTTERY tickets with your favorite fighters and underdogs... and props.
Bet small AND WIN BIG! That's the "hook" of parlays.
Downside? Very, very low chance of hitting it and winning. Usually erodes bankroll over time.
School #2. Die hard mathematically and statistically driven handicappers who don't think they've very smart.
And there's A LOT OF TRUTH to this as well. On the bottom of this point you'll find some highly suggested reading about parlays (including some from Van1ty).
Upside: Very smart lower risk way to manage bets and money.
Downside? Read the situations in School #3.
School #3: Using them in the right situations. (Van1ty's articles mention some of these situations briefly but I think it's worth discussing here).
Situation A: Real time partial parlays
Recently -- I decided I wanted to do partial parlays in REAL TIME.
What this means is -- I would win a bet -- and then take a portion of the winnings (not all) and roll them into my next bet and so on.
I figured this was smarter for a couple of reasons.
First -- I wasn't putting 100% of my winnings into my next bet. This means I was saving winnings as I was progressing -- but at the same time I was increasing my bets as the fights went on. And I would use the kelly criterion to determine how much to reinvest into the next fight.
Here's an example:
Fight 1: Bet $1000 and win $500 (total $1500) -- kelly criterion says invest 20% into my next fight (which is $300) And save $1200.
Fight 2: Already bet $700 -- NOW add $300 (total $1000). Win $1300. Adjusted roll: $2500. Run the kelly formula and it says to invest 10% into my next fight (which is $250) and now I have $2250 in my pocket.
And so on...
Well -- here's the REALITY of what happened.
Most of the books didn't settle the bets fast enough to be able to do this.
The ONLY book that settle fights within seconds was 5dimes.
The Greek & Bodog was 2nd place. (5 to 15 minutes)
Bookmaker was next.
Pinnacle took 20 minutes +
BetFair was very slow (45 minutes +).
PaddyPower took 8 hours (must of been something wrong).
So I couldn't roll the bets into each other like most mathematicians would tell you to do.
It just wasn't possible.
Situation B: to bet parlays: LOCK IN odds.
Last week -- juicy odds came out on a fight that's a few weeks away. I locked in a few simple parlays with locks
. The odds went up 80 notches since then (and they'll probably move up even more before fight time). Note: these aren't crazy parlays with a bunch of dogs that I hope are going to win. lol They were mainly 2 men parlays that I wanted to lock in the odds and made smaller plays (adjusted to kelly levels).
Situation C: Can't place bets in real time.
Sometimes I go watch the fights with my buddies at a sports bar. I don't bring my laptop with me. lol IN those situations -- obviously I can't be doing real time parlays so I have to set up my plan in advance.
In closing -- I think parlays have their place (personally 5% to 10% of my wagers). I think being strategic about them and keeping the amounts to relatively small amounts (using kelly to calculate how much) is the solution.
Here's some of the best reading I've found on parlays:
Hope this helps.
...i admit that my response to calculator came off as a mean-spirited category 5 clusterf-ck in comparison...
