Leben/Munoz Props

**NunyaBidness** · 11-04-11, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Didn't want to lay the juice on Munoz, and saw Leben by TKO/KO at +375 so I went for it.

Now I'm not sure if I should let that bet ride or to hedge it.

Do you still think that prop has value or do you think you made a mistake?

If it has value, hedging is like buying an a dozen eggs for $3.00 and selling 6 of them for a dollar.

**v1y** · 11-04-11, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Munoz may be able to pull off a finish.

May be able to? It's a 5 round fight, i think it's more than likely he does.

**aloys** · 11-04-11, 02:50 PM

Leben surely one class better

**ReBEL`LiON** · 11-04-11, 03:18 PM

Once munoz gets hit he will surely go for the TD. Been watching him since his wec days and the man cannot fight. He swings at air with his eyes closed. The best part of his game is his heavy gnp.

Munoz has to gas out leben and look to gnp his way to a decision or later round submission. Leben will be tough to finish by ko obviously.

Having said that, with a gun to my head I'd pick leben by ko at +300 something

**omalley21** · 11-04-11, 05:50 PM

Munoz inside distance for me.

**teaserpleaser** · 11-04-11, 06:31 PM

Guess im crazy but i see this being an ” easy” fight for munoz if you dont want to lay -265 or whatever it is now parlay with reagan penn (-290) hes not going to lose to evan cutts

**Alyosha** · 11-05-11, 02:17 AM

I'm curious what line other people are getting with 5dimes for the "Leben inside the distance" prop because I'm almost convinced 5dimes is giving dual lines. I bet Leben inside the distance at +284, as always my MMA prop limit is $100 until the line changes, allowing me to bet more on the line, and then five minutes later the "Leben inside the distance" line went down +261 but NONE of the other prop lines for the fight changed simultaneously. I know it's not proof but this is not the first time something like this has happened. I'd really appreciate if someone lets me know what their current line is for Leben inside the distance, whether it's +261 like mine or something else.

**omalley21** · 11-05-11, 02:40 AM

+261 for me as well.

**Alyosha** · 11-05-11, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by omalley21

+261 for me as well.

Thanks, in that case I must be mistaken. It was just strange because it seems that every single time I bet the $100 MMA prop limit and it tells me I'll only be able to bet more if the line changes, the line movement always seems to go against me.

For what it's worth I think Leben inside the distance at +261 is still amazing value. Munoz has a tendency to get sloppy, he's very hittable and when he gets hit he opens up more, leaving himself more vulnerable to both knockouts and submissions. His wrestling has never translated very well to MMA, though I don't doubt he'll be able to take Leben down quite often if he wants to. Still, he'll have a very hard time finishing Leben and I don't think the same is true for Leben -- Leben can finish this fight by TKO/KO or even a submission in one of the several scrambles I expect to see in the early rounds. Leben by submission at +1347 is actually worth a look, but I think simply Leben inside the distance is safer and that's what I went with. Of course one could just take Leben straight up at +240, it's not a big difference, but I think the chances that he wins a decision are almost nil. He'll need to finish this fight (and he's an natural finisher anyway) because he will get taken down for sure and you don't win rounds that way. Besides, if it goes to rounds four and five both will be exhausted but Munoz is almost sure to win those rounds with sheer wrestling. I hope it doesn't go that long because rounds four and five would be painful to watch. Leben inside the distance guys, believe me it's a very strong bet.

**Vitooch** · 11-05-11, 05:40 AM

I've decided to add Munoz wins by decision at +390 as my other bet for this fight. I think Leben by TKO/KO at +375 and Munoz by decision at +390 are both great value.

Munoz's wrestling in particular hasn't impressed me. His takedowns seriously lack the explosiveness and unpredictability you normally would expect from a wrestler of his credentials. However, his wrestling and more importantly his cardio may be just good enough to neutralize Leben's dangerous standup.

With that being said, Leben's wrestling is very solid (more specifically his TDD) so sticking to a wrestling-first gameplan may be easier said than done. May I add that Leben has found success against a highly touted wrestler before in Aaron Simpson.

Mark Munoz inside the distance is also a decent bet, but I consider Munoz winning by decision only slightly less likely than him finishing the fight, and that prop (by decision) has significantly more value. Munoz has failed to consistently finish his recent opponents, so I can live without a Munoz inside the distance prop bet....

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**teaserpleaser** · 11-05-11, 07:28 AM

If munoz should get ko' d by Leben he should give some serious thought to just building his reign training center or coaching wrestling d1... I dont know wtf chris Leben is smokin talking about he gets #1 contender spot chris wont even sniff the belt ever even if anderson retires today...chael, Bisping, vitor, okami, stann, maia beathim imo... Seriously if Mark should lose this fight i dont even need to watch the spike delay i' ll know he fought a stupid fight with a heavy handed iron chin brawler, thats really all chris is a gatekeeper with decent defensive wrestling avg to above avg bjj. not an elite striker by any means not great footwork not great hand speed. Been watching him since he upset/broke benji radach' s jaw believe it or not hasnt changed much since then... call em how I see em. Munoz has the ability to make this any easy fight he says he wants to be a champion well ufc champions dont lose to guys like chris Leben very often.

**teaserpleaser** · 11-05-11, 04:56 PM

Munoz!!!!!!!