Alexis Vila -315

[proposition joe]

Alexis Vila - 315 vs Galvao

This line is great. Galvao has been chinchecked before. Anyone disagree?

[TheCalculator]

You think Galvao can win?

[proposition joe]

You think Galvao can win?

Sure, but he won't. His chin is very suspect and Vila has a huge wrestling and power advantage. I was expecting Alexis to be -600 or more. I think that the oddsmakers are being a little cautious with the Bellator favorites after seeing Nazare and Baker go down last week.

[TheCalculator]

Sure, but he won't. His chin is very suspect and Vila has a huge wrestling and power advantage. I was expecting Alexis to be -600 or more. I think that the oddsmakers are being a little cautious with the Bellator favorites after seeing Nazare and Baker go down last week.

Yeah -- that makes sense. The odds were insane last week. I personally think Ed West could stop the hype on Dantas. Dantas hasn't really faced anyone yet. This will be a steeper challenge.

[proposition joe]

Yeah -- that makes sense. The odds were insane last week. I personally think Ed West could stop the hype on Dantas. Dantas hasn't really faced anyone yet. This will be a steeper challenge.

I agree. If I make a play on that one, it will be West. I'm probably going to wait and see where that line is Saturday.

[TheCalculator]

Yeah -- hopefully the lines go crazy again... lol

[v1y]

-315 is never a great line in mma.

anyways galvao's going to have a BIG size advantage here, and he showed really strong wrestling against warren.

i expect him to get ktfo the way he throws punches, but there's no way i'd lay down on vila at that price.

[proposition joe]

-315 is never a great line in mma.

We will have to agree to disagree on that.

anyways galvao's going to have a BIG size advantage here, and he showed really strong wrestling against warren.

Vila is no smaller than Damacio and hits just as hard.

[NunyaBidness]

-315 is never a great line in mma.

That's flat out wrong. -315 is a great line on anything that happens significantly more often than that. This "bet dogs to win" mentality around here is silly. Bet into bad lines, period.

[TheCalculator]

I think Vila will destroy Galvao.

That's flat out wrong. -315 is a great line on anything that happens significantly more often than that. This "bet dogs to win" mentality around here is silly. Bet into bad lines, period.

[v1y]

That's flat out wrong. -315 is a great line on anything that happens significantly more often than that. This "bet dogs to win" mentality around here is silly. Bet into bad lines, period.

Yes, and I'm saying that in MMA it's nearly impossible to ever say that a -315 line is a "great line". There are so many variables in this sport, and what seems like a lock at the time is not always in practice.

[sirchadwick1]

I've seen -315 a number of times and said it's a great line in MMA. Hell, I felt comfy betting on Konrad at -600 against Buentello and his gameplan was absolute shit... but he got it done. I usually only play big favs if I absolutely cannot see the guy losing though and usually just include them in a few 2-man parlays. With that said, I haven't seen enough out of Vila to throw down on him at that price... but Galvao has made me good money. Not sure I want to make a play in this situation.

[MMAbetMASTA]

We will have to agree to disagree on that.



Vila is no smaller than Damacio and hits just as hard.

While I do agree that -300 range is often good and worthy line for some mma fights, I don't think this is one of them and I agree with much of what v1y said.

While I think galvao's horrendous striking defense will be his demise, he will be MUCH bigger than vila. I think you're underestimating his size. Btw, damacio is a natural fw and has fought at lw before - he is much, much bigger than vila and is one of the bigger 135's out there. I don't think the size will take away from vila's ko power, the guy clearly has natural power in his hands, and I don't care how big you are - not everyone has that gift. My concern with the size is that if he doesn't fare well witth the stand up that galvao will be able to muscle him around in close quarters - something that will spell disastorous for a small wrestler if he gets put on his back. Vila is a wrestling champ, but it was a long time ago since his wrestling glory days and they were at 120 pounds. I have yet to see footage of him where I've seen his impressive wrestling in mma. Plus his mma fights outside of warren were at 125. My point is that if he doesn't win the stand up fight, this match could go south for him beacuse of the size difference and who knows what this 40 year olds cardio is like going into a 3rd round... I considered mighty mo the better wrestler against cruz, but cruz simply muscled him around, and like vila, mighty should be fighting in a 125 weight class.

If you like him go for it, because if you're really confident and feel you have a good breakdown, go with your gut instinct especially if you think the line is favorable. I've been in the same position plenty of times. Its a nice line if you're really confident, but at that price I think its too risky for me and there are better -300 lines I would rather save my plays for. I think vila takes this, I don't recommend a play on galvo for the upset. Yet I think -315 on a small, old fighter who outside of warren has fought sub .500 comp is a bit risky.

Either way GL dude, I'll be rooting for vila because i like him... I thought his post fight speech was funny but sincere - you can tell the guy comes from a rought background and humble begginings. That was bs they didn't give him the mic during the post fight speech, I could tell he was pissed and really wanted to say something to the world and take that opportunity. "I'm a coming for da titlo, da titlo!"

btw, this is coming from a guy who thought that warren was going to absolutely dominate him. That foolish assumption and break down cost me every parlay I made that weekend... So, again don't take my words to heart if you got some good insight and feel confident - I'm just giving my insight / opinion to help.

[TheCalculator]

I think Ed West has a 25% chance of making an upset. His striking skills are another level compared to the other guys Dudu has faced. His striking defense is also very good. Should be a great fight. Much closer than the odds are saying IMO.

[proposition joe]

While I do agree that -300 range is often good and worthy line for some mma fights, I don't think this is one of them and I agree with much of what v1y said.

While I think galvao's horrendous striking defense will be his demise, he will be MUCH bigger than vila. I think you're underestimating his size. Btw, damacio is a natural fw and has fought at lw before - he is much, much bigger than vila and is one of the bigger 135's out there. I don't think the size will take away from vila's ko power, the guy clearly has natural power in his hands, and I don't care how big you are - not everyone has that gift. My concern with the size is that if he doesn't fare well witth the stand up that galvao will be able to muscle him around in close quarters - something that will spell disastorous for a small wrestler if he gets put on his back. Vila is a wrestling champ, but it was a long time ago since his wrestling glory days and they were at 120 pounds. I have yet to see footage of him where I've seen his impressive wrestling in mma. Plus his mma fights outside of warren were at 125. My point is that if he doesn't win the stand up fight, this match could go south for him beacuse of the size difference and who knows what this 40 year olds cardio is like going into a 3rd round... I considered mighty mo the better wrestler against cruz, but cruz simply muscled him around, and like vila, mighty should be fighting in a 125 weight class.

If you like him go for it, because if you're really confident and feel you have a good breakdown, go with your gut instinct especially if you think the line is favorable. I've been in the same position plenty of times. Its a nice line if you're really confident, but at that price I think its too risky for me and there are better -300 lines I would rather save my plays for. I think vila takes this, I don't recommend a play on galvo for the upset. Yet I think -315 on a small, old fighter who outside of warren has fought sub .500 comp is a bit risky.

Either way GL dude, I'll be rooting for vila because i like him... I thought his post fight speech was funny but sincere - you can tell the guy comes from a rought background and humble begginings. That was bs they didn't give him the mic during the post fight speech, I could tell he was pissed and really wanted to say something to the world and take that opportunity. "I'm a coming for da titlo, da titlo!"

btw, this is coming from a guy who thought that warren was going to absolutely dominate him. That foolish assumption and break down cost me every parlay I made that weekend... So, again don't take my words to heart if you got some good insight and feel confident - I'm just giving my insight / opinion to help.

Interesting. I think you have some good points. My gut told me to go for it and I'm really not second guessing too much at the moment. I'm not too worried about Vila's size or age but I very well may be wrong. Thanks for the input.

[proposition joe]

I think Ed West has a 25% chance of making an upset. His striking skills are another level compared to the other guys Dudu has faced. His striking defense is also very good. Should be a great fight. Much closer than the odds are saying IMO.

I agree, but given his current odds (+220), a 25% chance is a bad investment. Assuming he wins one out of four, you would end up with -80$$.

[TheCalculator]

Yup -- that's why I just added him as a hedge to a 3 man parlay.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Interesting. I think you have some good points. My gut told me to go for it and I'm really not second guessing too much at the moment. I'm not too worried about Vila's size or age but I very well may be wrong. Thanks for the input.

yea man if you got that gut feeling go with it, -315 is just pricey, but I got vila to win this as well. Didn't mean to get you second guessing (I've been screwed for doing that to myself after reading someone else's breakdown / opinion), just giving my 2 cents of concern. I'm just not confidnet enough in my personal prediction to pay that juice is all! GL meng.

[NunyaBidness]

I think Ed West has a 25% chance of making an upset. His striking skills are another level compared to the other guys Dudu has faced. His striking defense is also very good. Should be a great fight. Much closer than the odds are saying IMO.

If you think he has a 25% chance of making an upset then its not CLOSER than the odds are saying, its further away. The current market gives West a 28-29% chance of winning. If you think West wins 25% of the time, you should be LOADING up on Dantas at current available prices of -260, -265, -280.

[NunyaBidness]

Yes, and I'm saying that in MMA it's nearly impossible to ever say that a -315 line is a "great line". There are so many variables in this sport, and what seems like a lock at the time is not always in practice.

I don't think anything every looks like a lock. But value is value.

If you really believe what you are saying then you should be blind betting every dog over +330ish.

[ghost kid]

I think Ed West has a 25% chance of making an upset. His striking skills are another level compared to the other guys Dudu has faced. His striking defense is also very good. Should be a great fight. Much closer than the odds are saying IMO.

I think TheCalculator is broken. Cause those #s are wrong.

[TheCalculator]

I think TheCalculator is broken. Cause those #s are wrong.

Funny.

[TheCalculator]

I think TheCalculator is broken. Cause those #s are wrong.

Funny.

[proposition joe]

then






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and

[proposition joe]

I don't even really know what else to say about that one....

[ghost kid]

Vila's peeps are saying he was running a fever all day. Who knows what's really true.

I laid price on Alexis, but I scored it 29-28 Galvao. Very fortunate decision for Vila backers.

[v1y]

galvao was the right play, i paid the price for my good judgment lol.

[ghost kid]

galvao was the right play, i paid the price for my good judgment lol.

You deserved better. Not sure how you score it for Vila. Or 29-28 Ed West. Or 30-27 Wiuff. Bellator judging is the WORST. Absolute worst.

[bogbat]

That sucks for Galvoa, this is the second time he was robbed while fighting for Bellator. I hope Bjorn cut him a sympathy check.

[bjpenn85]

frustrating to have galvao and ed west, when both were clear winners. Anyway, do you know how the bellator judges is selected? herzhog or what his name is, is alyways referee at bellator events, same with judges? they should seriously get fired.

[v1y]

frustrating to have galvao and ed west, when both were clear winners.

i think you're in a minority about west, and i had money on him too lol.

[bjpenn85]

maybe not clear winners, i am biased as well but. I really didnt feel duantes won that fight. I did watch the fight without sound, maybe i need to rewatch it. But i felt like west was more active and landed more shots. Maybe more in the third round.

[proposition joe]

I scored the first two for Vila but the second round was a toss up. Not a blatant robbery but still, I was expecting the judges to give it to Galvao 29-28. I thought Dantas won all three. I'll be on Vila in the finals, hopefully at +money this time.

[ghost kid]

Despite close Bellator 55 loss, Marcos Galvao gets 'win' bonus

http://mmajunkie.com/news/25772/despite-close-bellator-55-loss-marcos-galvao-gets-win-bonus.mma

[v1y]

I scored the first two for Vila but the second round was a toss up. Not a blatant robbery but still, I was expecting the judges to give it to Galvao 29-28. I thought Dantas won all three. I'll be on Vila in the finals, hopefully at +money this time.

After what we saw last night, I would be surprised if Dantas doesn't close around -150 or even -200.