Feedback on a Beginner's Picks

[Vitooch]

Hey Guys,

I'm fairly new to MMA betting. I made good money betting on Cormier, Ellenberger and Jon Jones by submission.

I decided to put more money into my account and make more bets but I feel like I may have gone overboard in betting the next to UFC events.

I was told on another thread that I can have made alternative bets that would have cost me less money with similar profit.

What do you guys think of my picks and what could I have done differently?

[ghost kid]

Dude, important advice here. Don't POST a picture of your bets with ticket #s !!!!!! HUGE mistake.

I know you are excited - MMA betting is awesome and we all enjoy it. This is a great forum with lots of solid back and forth.

But betting 101. In general, it's not a good idea to talk about funding accounts, display personal betting tickets, etc. Not in today's gambling climate.

[Vitooch]

Dude, important advice here. Don't POST a picture of your bets with ticket #s !!!!!! HUGE mistake.

I know you are excited - MMA betting is awesome and we all enjoy it. This is a great forum with lots of solid back and forth.

But betting 101. In general, it's not a good idea to talk about funding accounts, display personal betting tickets, etc. Not in today's gambling climate.

Thanks for the heads up. Would it be fine if I reposted my picks with the ticket numbers not visible?

[ghost kid]

Commenting on the bets themselves, I think you have some good selections there. But it's also important not to get too prop heavy or spread yourself too thin.

Take your Edgar-Maynard play. I know your strategy is Edgar straight with Maynard ITD hedge. And I hear your reasoning, but your are screwed if Maynard wins a decision. They've been to decision twice before, and it's probably headed there again. I would probably just pick a side and ride it out.

Best of luck with your wagers. Tremendous fights still to come this year. Great time to be an MMA fan.

[ghost kid]

Thanks for the heads up. Would it be fine if I reposted my picks with the ticket numbers not visible?

For sure. I know it's a pain in the ass to photoshop/cut them out, but it's probably best for your protection in the long run. You just never know who is reading the forums.

[Vitooch]

For sure. I know it's a pain in the ass to photoshop/cut them out, but it's probably best for your protection in the long run. You just never know who is reading the forums.

I had no idea you can even do anything with those ticket numbers. Thanks again for the heads up.

And yes I totally get what you're saying about not being too prop heavy. Maybe I would have gotten more value with a Maynard straight up and a Maynard inside the distance as a bonus, instead of hedging so much. I def plan on making more meticulous bets in the next event. I just get so eager to bet lol!

[Vitooch]

[FightFightFight]

Heres a quick example. Say youre betting 100. Lets bet 52 on FE inside, and 48 on Maynard inside on your best lines. If FE wins, .52*510=265-48=217, Maynard inside = .48*573=275-52=223, considerably less profit than if you put 100 at 260. Aim to win a little extra over a long time, as u need whatever edge u can get to beat the juice.
Im no whiz, please somebody correct me if wrong.

[Vitooch]

Heres a quick example. Say youre betting 100. Lets bet 52 on FE inside, and 48 on Maynard inside on your best lines. If FE wins, .52*510=265-48=217, Maynard inside = .48*573=275-52=223, considerably less profit than if you put 100 at 260. Aim to win a little extra over a long time, as u need whatever edge u can get to beat the juice.
Im no whiz, please somebody correct me if wrong.

I def see what you're saying. I may have done too much hedging in these last two events.

With that being said, I'm crossing my fingers for a Wiman and Stephens finish.

[NunyaBidness]

Heres a quick example. Say youre betting 100. Lets bet 52 on FE inside, and 48 on Maynard inside on your best lines. If FE wins, .52*510=265-48=217, Maynard inside = .48*573=275-52=223, considerably less profit than if you put 100 at 260. Aim to win a little extra over a long time, as u need whatever edge u can get to beat the juice.
Im no whiz, please somebody correct me if wrong.

Yes you're absolutely right. Betting both those lines is like getting won't go the distance at +190 when you can just get +260 by betting it normally.

[Vaughany]

Commenting on the bets themselves, I think you have some good selections there. But it's also important not to get too prop heavy or spread yourself too thin.

Take your Edgar-Maynard play. I know your strategy is Edgar straight with Maynard ITD hedge. And I hear your reasoning, but your are screwed if Maynard wins a decision. They've been to decision twice before, and it's probably headed there again. I would probably just pick a side and ride it out.

Best of luck with your wagers. Tremendous fights still to come this year. Great time to be an MMA fan.

Yeah that is a risky hedge. Firstly Maynard wont win by submission, so you'd be better off playing Maynard by TKO/KO. Moreover, Edgar is going to be fully aware of Maynard's power after that previous fight and is going to be playing it even safer - last time Edgar was more worried about Maynard's wrestling and overlooked his striking. And Maynard is going to realise that he needs to be smarter in this fight and not just chase the KO like he did after dropping Edgar - which Couture was going mad at him about in between rounds. I think Maynard will go back to using his wrestling more, afterall it worked in their first fight.

[Vaughany]

You're best pick there might be The Cure! Saw them live a couple weeks ago at Bestival, great set

[Das Jax]

Hah, good eye.

[Vitooch]

Yeah that is a risky hedge. Firstly Maynard wont win by submission, so you'd be better off playing Maynard by TKO/KO. Moreover, Edgar is going to be fully aware of Maynard's power after that previous fight and is going to be playing it even safer - last time Edgar was more worried about Maynard's wrestling and overlooked his striking. And Maynard is going to realise that he needs to be smarter in this fight and not just chase the KO like he did after dropping Edgar - which Couture was going mad at him about in between rounds. I think Maynard will go back to using his wrestling more, afterall it worked in their first fight.

Yea, my betting for Maynard/Edgar was regretful. Perhaps I should have gone with Maynard straight up with a Maynard by TKO/KO bonus and removed Edgar completely out of the equation. Idk, I'm an eager beginner. I'll make sure to put more thought into my bets next event and not bet so impulsively.

Unless, things go horribly, horribly wrong, I'll make a decent profit on these next two events. If guys like Wiman, Johnson, and Stevens pull through I can make some good cash.

I made good money off the last Strikeforce event and the UFN with a much more simplified betting strategy.

[Educ8d Degener8]

You're best pick there might be The Cure! Saw them live a couple weeks ago at Bestival, great set

LOL

[bogbat]

In my opinion you have a bit too much "value" betting going on. I'd make a few bigger straight wagers on the fighters you feel most confident about.

[Kaladarus]

In my opinion you have a bit too much "value" betting going on. I'd make a few bigger straight wagers on the fighters you feel most confident about.

I agree with Bogbat. I think you have a few too many bets. However, I still believe you will profit with what you've currently selected. Really liking most of your plays.

[Vitooch]

Like UFC on Versus 6, I'm very happy with some of my picks (Stephens, Guillard, and Aldo), but I went overboard with the prop betting once again (Edgar/Maynard). I made the mistake of submitting most of these bets far too early, when I was still learning. I will make sure not be so impatient and place my bets a few days before the event.

I will learn from the beginner's mistakes of these first two trial runs and hopefully win good money at the next few UFC events.

[Vitooch]

I also added this parlay:
Maynard/Edgar starts round 2 -1240* vs Fight won't start round 2
Fight won't go 5 round distance -280* vs Florian/Aldo goes 5 round distance
Stann/Sonnen starts round 2 -665* vs Fight won't start round 2
Fight won't go 3 round distance -350* vs Lauzon/Guillard goes 3 round distance

Risk 30 to win 35