Should Pettis (-260) be THAT much favored over Jeremy Stephens (+220)?

[ReBEL`LiON]

This line, again is the byproduct of hype. I'd thought the line would be much closer to Pettis -180ish. Pettis rightfully so should be favored because brings another dimension in his game with his submission savvy skills while "Lil Heathen" is content with keeping the fight standing.

Some key points:

- Both have good chins but Stephens is much more proven.
- Stephens has already beaten his team mate daniel downes
- Stephens has faught more strikers in his career then Pettis has

[Chairib]

Could you explain why you think Stephens is much more proven?

[ReBEL`LiON]

Sure. Well, he's faught more strikers in Guillard, Marcus davis, Stout, Fisher, Dos Anjos(*).

While most of Pettis' opponents wanted no part standing with him and were mostly grappling based fighters.

If you watched his fights, u know he can take a punch as well as he can dish it back 5x harder than anyone Pettis has faught. Even guillard had to respect his power and didn't want to take the risk of slugging it out with him. He beat him with his speed.

If i were to choose, I'd take Pettis by decision only because he brings leg kicks, ever improving game, and submission skills to the table but in the end, vegas has it wrong.

[Kaladarus]

I don't really like either line here. Would have taken Pettis at -180 for sure. Stephens can win this fight, but I think Pettis beats him every where. Pettis is also more flashy and has fancy kicks. This secures decisions. I don't really see a clear path to Stephens winning other than a lucky KO. Pettis can win this fight anywhere. He can win standing, on the ground and will get the decision much more often than not if it goes there.

[Vaughany]

I think Stephens should be +200 to +225 range. I took him at +252 opener on pinnacle, and expect that it may well go back to that closer to fight time. Copy and pasted my reasoning from my thread...

Stephens has gone from being a cocky, aggressive Iowa kid with considerable KO power to a cerebral and dedicated mixed martial artist. Just from watching his blogs you can see that he is highly ambitious and confident.
Both fighters are predominantly stand-up based. Stephens has a granite chin, KO power and decent grappling. Pettis is flashier, has a wider array of striking techniques, and is very active and effective on the ground, always aggressive looking for triangles and transitions. Both have reasonable take-down defence, I'd give the slight edge to Pettis who I think has better balance. However, offensive wrestling I'd give to Stephens, who showed in the Downes fight that he has a new appreciation of mixing it up and not just about being a stand-up fighter looking for the one-punch KO, but also an effective grappler. He's worked diligently with Fabricio Camoes and Dean Lister on his BJJ so that he isn't going to make the same mistakes that he made against Din Thomas and Lauzon (he took the Lauzon fight on 10 days notice). Despite this Pettis still has a chance of subbing Stephens off his back, but you have to wonder whether Stephens will look to take Pettis down? Pettis is unlikely to get Stephens down, as far as I'm aware all of Pettis' submissions have come after his opponent took him down. So on the basis that I think the majority of this fight will remain standing, does Pettis really deserve to be a -280 favourite over Stephens, a guy that has finished Dos Anjos, Cole Miller, Marcus Davis, and beaten one of the best strikers in the division in Sam Stout, and lost a close and in some people's eye's a debatable split-decision to arguably the best striker in the division in Melvin Guillard??? When you look at the guys Pettis has beaten I wouldn't say that any of them have as good stand-up as Lil Heathen (Campbell, Castillo, Karalexis, Roller, and Henderson).

[brooks85]

i love stephens in this matchup, fact he is an underdog is icing on the cake.

[The HOFF]

I tend to favor Stephens as well, especially at +225.

[omalley21]

You'd think Pettis would've lost hype after his performance against Guida. Value is definitley on Stephens.

[ddream1]

i agree with "JS" pick and value aswell and will be posting it in my thread for about a quarter to half unit, my only issue is "JS" can be taking from his striking if he starts to fall behind or if he is chasing. i wonder if he starts chasing "AP" around and cannot connect with power if he then takes himself out of his game and starts swinging for the fences. i could see "AP" plan being just to circle and jab, circle and jab all night. if "JS" doesn't connect could he win a stand up points fight?