Tony Ferguson / Ramsey - $$?

**Vaughany** · 06-03-11, 05:57 PM

I took Ferguson at +120. Ramsey fought his last official fight at LW. Have a look at the last couple pages on my thread where I've posted some thoughts on this bout and also a quote from Ramsey about Ferguson's wrestling and how he thinks he has an advantage there. Also I only just saw your PM as the pop-alert thing that usually comes up when I've got a message didn't pop up the other day so only jus noticed. Will respond when I get a chance tomorrow.

**Ladle** · 06-03-11, 06:02 PM

Certainly wouldn't recommend a heavy play on Ferguson. He's the vastly superior striker, but Nijem is a much better wrestler and a much better submission grappler.

I'd take Nijem at the current odds.

**Kaladarus** · 06-03-11, 06:11 PM

I really like Nijem also. He'll put way too much pressure on Ferguson for him to strike like he did on TUF.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-03-11, 06:17 PM

Do you guys ^ favoring ramsey know his wrestling background? Tony has been wrestling since he was a toddler supposedly, and he looks to be way bigger and more athletic. This is my fear though is that ramsey is better, but shit he couldn't even get Chris down in his final bout when he had energy in the 1st round. If he couldn't get Chris down, then I think he will really struggle against tony. But then again he's had a nice lay off and is training on his terms, so perhaps we haven't seen the full potential of his wrasslin. I would like to know more about ramsey's backround if possible... Thanks for your insight.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-03-11, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I took Ferguson at +120. Ramsey fought his last official fight at LW. Have a look at the last couple pages on my thread where I've posted some thoughts on this bout and also a quote from Ramsey about Ferguson's wrestling and how he thinks he has an advantage there. Also I only just saw your PM as the pop-alert thing that usually comes up when I've got a message didn't pop up the other day so only jus noticed. Will respond when I get a chance tomorrow.

Hey Vaughany, yea man I have a message in my inbox, I am gonna check it now, I think you might have already replied (sorry for lagging on my reply!).

I am gonna check out your post right now. you're stoked you nabbed him at +120, I think he will be even or -120 by the time I make a play.

**Ladle** · 06-03-11, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

Do you guys ^ favoring ramsey know his wrestling background? Tony has been wrestling since he was a toddler supposedly, and he looks to be way bigger and more athletic. I would like to know more about ramsey's backround if possible... Thanks for your insight.

He wrestled collegiately for the Wolverines at Utah Valley. He's a lot more accomplished than Ferguson in the wrestling department.

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

This is my fear though is that ramsey is better, but shit he couldn't even get Chris down in his final bout when he had energy in the 1st round. If he couldn't get Chris down, then I think he will really struggle against tony. But then again he's had a nice lay off and is training on his terms, so perhaps we haven't seen the full potential of his wrasslin.

I think the Justin Edwards fight gave us a fair depiction of Ferguson's defensive wrestling. Nijem can probably get his hands wrapped around a double and bring the fight to the ground providing he doesn't run headlong into one of Ferguson's hooks.

As for Chris Cope, for all his flaws, he actually has pretty resolute takedown defense.

**Kaladarus** · 06-03-11, 06:37 PM

I don't think he needs to take Tony down to win this fight. If he takes him down easily he will win the fight easily, but he's super aggressive and doesn't give up. He was doing everything right against Cope. It doesn't really matter if he takes him down when he's in like that. When he had Cope against the cage he was getting in perfect positions that made Cope use a lot of energy and really limit his offensive ability. If you watch Tony's last fight he was doing the same move over and over and using the same range most of the fight. Tony is a very aggressive striker that likes to push forward a lot. The counter to that is wrestling. It's going to be impossible for him to setup his game plan against a guy who will close the distance the way Ramsey does. I don't really think Tony's wrestling is that relevant because he will probably not be able to use it well offensively against Ramsey.

Tony has a huge edge in striking obviously and could easily KO Ramsey with the right opportunity. The only time we've seen Tony playing defensive he was getting destroyed but Couture jr. He did KO him in the end of the first round, but he was getting dominated in the start of the fight. Ramsey will be putting even more pressure and wont be slowing down.

**bogbat** · 06-03-11, 06:37 PM

I think a big question going into this fight how much have these guys improved since the show. We often see the lesser experienced TUF contestants improve a lot between the show and the finale. Does anyone know where they have been training since the show?

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-03-11, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

I don't think he needs to take Tony down to win this fight. If he takes him down easily he will win the fight easily, but he's super aggressive and doesn't give up. He was doing everything right against Cope. It doesn't really matter if he takes him down when he's in like that. When he had Cope against the cage he was getting in perfect positions that made Cope use a lot of energy and really limit his offensive ability. If you watch Tony's last fight he was doing the same move over and over and using the same range most of the fight. Tony is a very aggressive striker that likes to push forward a lot. The counter to that is wrestling. It's going to be impossible for him to setup his game plan against a guy who will close the distance the way Ramsey does. I don't really think Tony's wrestling is that relevant because he will probably not be able to use it well offensively against Ramsey.

Tony has a huge edge in striking obviously and could easily KO Ramsey with the right opportunity. The only time we've seen Tony playing defensive he was getting destroyed but Couture jr. He did KO him in the end of the first round, but he was getting dominated in the start of the fight. Ramsey will be putting even more pressure and wont be slowing down.

excellent points, thanks for your insight. I'm so tempted to play but my mind is spinning after reading all the different perspectives...

**Kaladarus** · 06-03-11, 06:54 PM

To be fair most people on this forum are on Tony and if you like him you should make the play just don't get carried away.

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Lot of backers for Tony.

**illmatick** · 06-03-11, 07:08 PM

I think the Justin Edwards fight gave us a fair depiction of Ferguson's defensive wrestling. Nijem can probably get his hands wrapped around a double and bring the fight to the ground providing he doesn't run headlong into one of Ferguson's hooks.

I think this is important . Anyone going large on Fergusan might want to re-watch the Edward's fight.

As of now I'm staying away from this fight, but a Nijem by submission prop might interest me.

Chuck Oneil is probably my favorite bet on this card. Locked him in at -175. I think it closes north of -200

**BIGDAY** · 06-03-11, 07:23 PM

Ferguson is my largest play on Saturday at +130. I also have plays on Kingsbury and Edwards. I am wrestling bias however. Good Luck!

**rocky mattioli** · 06-03-11, 07:43 PM

i totally expect nijem to come out hell bent for leather.....he may just try and overwhelm ferguson with his wild striking to close distance...this is the worry....and also might be a great chance for ferguson....

i read that nijem wrestled at uvu,but i haven`t read of his accomplishments there save something about being voted "top wrestler" and captain.........not sure of the context of the "top wrestler" designation...whether it pertained to just the team or what...i`d be interested in hearing some more info on it....uvu is a division 1 program....so that`s definitely a consideration...

..but a division 2 nat`l championship isn`t exactly crap..ferguson won a nat`l championship at 165...and finished 3rd the next year at around 183......apparently ferguson`s wrestling is formidable and we`d all be guessing as to who is really the better grappler...maybe nijem has some submission grappling background?....if anyone has more info,please post..the more info,the better...

what we do know is that nijem`s striking is not on par with ferguson`s...his advantage will be to fight frentically,close distance and try and bully ferguson...

i`ve seen guys that are excellent boxers in boxing get roughed up and taken out of their game by lesser boxers...because they like to set a leisurely pace and pick their guy apart....they don`t like being pressured...that could happen here....

but,coming in wildly will be fraught with danger for nijem because,as a boxing guy,i have to say that ferguson`s boxing ability goes beyond mma...he`s really good....from what i saw on the show,this kid could box professionally......

he`s long...has excellent head movement..throws straight shots...and he throws them with bad intentions.....his punches do damage....

but if nijem can close distance and pressure ferguson,he won`t have room or time to settle in and break down nijem....

i`m pretty sure nijem will waste little time trying to get this to the mat.....cause if he stands outside like o`neil did,he`s in for a very rough night....

i grabbed ferguson at +110...based on what i know about their striking ability.....if nijem is indeed a dominant wrestler and can take ferguson down, keep him there or sub him(edwards had trouble keeping him down,and after watching video of edwards,he`s a very nasty character..but,from what i`ve watched,his wrestling isn`t that great),then i`ll pay the man....

we`ll see tomorrow....should be interesting....lots of good arguments supporting both guys...

great conversation...g.l. to all...

btw...here`s edwards getting his ass wrestled off...albeit by a 185 pounder...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qejqkb7nhVM

**BIGDAY** · 06-03-11, 08:01 PM

Indeed! Great conversation here.

I also think that Ferguson knows his stand-up is superior and for obvious reasons want to keeps it there. He will use his wrestling mostly as takedown defense and fight off any type of shots. Ferguson's head movement is sick! So smooth imo.

However, in the future, I hope he gets a fight against someone with great striking and less wrestling as I would love to see what kind of top positioning ground game he may have.

To be honest, as one of Lesnar's and Marty Morgan's top selections as a wrestler... He's got to have good wrestling skill.

Stoked for the fights already!!

**clarkd32** · 06-03-11, 10:43 PM

good discussion on the fight... grabbed some ferguson as well at even earlier tonight.

**Vrakas** · 06-03-11, 11:07 PM

this fight card is too close to call.

**bjpenn85** · 06-04-11, 03:15 AM

Good points. Problem with your arguments here, is that ramysey fought chris cope. Chris cope is a perfect guy to pressure, because he will buckle when doing so. He have back pedaled in every fight, and ramsey knew this. It was probably a part of his gameplan. Ferguson faced edwards which is a good fighter, junior dos santos even said he was the most well rounded guy, and a potential winner. Did anyone give chris cope a chance? But ramsey sure is a guy that may be able to come up with a rick story kind of game plan, and pressure ferguson. I think he actually must pressure tony the whole damned fight if his plan is to win. What happened to edwards when he stopped strike/pressure? tony starts taking the center of the cage immediately. The same thing with chuck. Chuck got picked apart already when the second round started. The key is like you said to pressure the guy the whole damned time. BUT IMO, the positions that ramsey gained in the chris cope fight, will simply not excist against ferguson, or if they excist, they wont appear for long. His quick, strong athletic, confident, his 6-12 elbows is vicious. If ramsey comes out like he did against chris cope, looping punches, wild, sloppy. He will pay. I dont think he dear to try that again. And if you have to wrestle another wrestler as ramsey will have to, simply because you cant afford to traid punches with a better striker, you will very quickly gas. I think ferguson is patient enough to wait to unleash when the right moment present itself. I may be biased here, but thats what i have picked up.

**FindTheLock** · 06-04-11, 04:49 AM

Ramsey has a sick ground game. Chris Cope, Ramsey's previous opponent, didn't let that black wrestler (I forget his name) take him down either, and the black wrestler and Ramsey were the two best wrestlers on the show. Neither one could take Cope down. I feel like Cope has a lot of weaknesses, but take down defense isn't one of them. So it's not fair to fault Ramsey for not being able to take Cope down judging from that small sample size. I think it will go the distance, and that usually favors the better wrestler who gets the most take downs. So I like Ramsey here, mainly because Ferguson basically fought weaker strikers than himself to get to this point. Ramsey will push the pace like Sonnen against Silva and take it to the mat I think.

**bjpenn85** · 06-04-11, 05:05 AM

True, chris copes takedown defense is good, bailey didnt mix things up, and telegraphed his shots kind of, but still, cope coped with it, but what about Tonys? quite good to begin with. He was up very fast after edwards first takedown, but that isnt too surprising as peoples takedown defense stagnate over time. He was later taken down that round, by a quit good timed takedown. I think with a full training camp that has focused on take down defense will prepare him. His hip work was kind of slick too, so i dont know what ramsey can do downstairs.

**rocky mattioli** · 06-04-11, 06:04 AM

nobody knows for sure who will impose their will....but,i`m just curious why the general feeling is that nijem will dominate ferguson on the mat....i don`t believe that grappling was the strong suit of the 3 guys that nijem fought at tuf (rader/harvison/cope).....maybe i`m wrong...

it is worrisome that nijem`s frenetic striking style actually got very positive results....he may not have looked pretty doing it,but it was fairly effective....he never seemed to have much trouble wading in getting his hands on his opponents....and if he is indeed the dominant grappler here.....or just manages to dominate the clinch for long stretches,he could easily get the win...

thankfully,for a lousy season,it produced a pretty interesting finale...

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-04-11, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

nobody knows for sure who will impose their will....but,i`m just curious why the general feeling is that nijem will dominate ferguson on the mat....i don`t believe that grappling was the strong suit of the 3 guys that nijem fought at tuf (rader/harvison/cope).....maybe i`m wrong...

it is worrisome that nijem`s frenetic striking style actually got very positive results....he may not have looked pretty doing it,but it was fairly effective....he never seemed to have much trouble wading in getting his hands on his opponents....and if he is indeed the dominant grappler here.....or just manages to dominate the clinch for long stretches,he could easily get the win...

thankfully,for a lousy season,it produced a pretty interesting finale...

You and BJ made some excellent points, great discussion up in here. Thanks for all the info and feedback you guys, I made moderate plays on Ferguson and Edwards. Nervous, but all gravy baby

Good luck everyone!!!

**timmyboy34243** · 06-04-11, 04:18 PM

ferg for me.............

**timmyboy34243** · 06-04-11, 04:18 PM

ferguson for me .........

**FindTheLock** · 06-04-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

True, chris copes takedown defense is good, bailey didnt mix things up, and telegraphed his shots kind of, but still, cope coped with it, but what about Tonys? quite good to begin with. He was up very fast after edwards first takedown, but that isnt too surprising as peoples takedown defense stagnate over time. He was later taken down that round, by a quit good timed takedown. I think with a full training camp that has focused on take down defense will prepare him. His hip work was kind of slick too, so i dont know what ramsey can do downstairs.

That's all true, and we don't have a large enough sample size to make a good prediction on this one. Another thing worth mentioning- we didn't get to see how good Ramsey's cardio is, because he finished most of his fights. Could prove to be the deciding factor tonight, because take down attempts take a lot of energy when the opponent is able to stall against the cage like cope was doing against Ramsey. Ramsey appeared to be getting tired in that fight, but he ended it with some surprising unorthodox striking. Tough call on this one, but I think the odds are a good indication of that.

**rocky mattioli** · 06-04-11, 05:33 PM

whoa...the more i look,the less i`m happy with ferguson.....

apparently he`s 10-3...not 10-2.....and the other loss was to a 158 pound guy that`s 3-5.....

add to that the loss to darabedyan(who is 5`7" and fights mostly at 155) and i`m a bit concerned....

i keep wondering how a 6 ft 170 pound national champion wrestler with crazy stand-up skill loses to these guys?...

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http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/f/06F2B22B757DA08B/Tony-Padilla-Ferguson/

i`m halving my ferguson bet....