COTTO over MAYORGA at -950, Mistake?

[kball15]

Put about 220 bucks to win something like 23 bucks on Cotto at -950.

Seems ridiculous but does anybody give Mayorga, at age 37, a shot?

Did I make a huge mistake? It sounds dumb but I consider it free money almost...

Thoughts?

[MMAdisciple]

I put boxing favorites in a parlay the other night, outta boredom. The first two lost, -425 & -1000, I don't know how many lost after that.

As far as what you did, whatever works but the best free money is + money because small plays for big money can't ruin you like big plays for small money could.

[kball15]

I put boxing favorites in a parlay the other night, outta boredom. The first two lost, -425 & -1000, I don't know how many lost after that.

As far as what you did, whatever works but the best free money is + money because small plays for big money can't ruin you like big plays for small money could.

very true.

but wait are you saying that you placed a -425 and a -1000 and both of them lost?!

what fights were those?!

[HauntingTheHoly]

This was a bad bet, in my opinion. The best word to describe the second half of Mayorga's career is *inconsistent* Some fights he's reportedly only barely trained (oscar) while others he's trained hard and looked good (Vargas, Mosley) So if it's possible he'll show up and look GOOD, you may have to sweat a bit. Cotto almost certainly wins, though. But save the -1000 range bets for *very* special cases, if at all.

[MMAdisciple]

very true.

but wait are you saying that you placed a -425 and a -1000 and both of them lost?!

what fights were those?!

Junior Witter -1100 and Rocky Juarez -425 both last Saturday.

[kball15]

Junior Witter -1100 and Rocky Juarez -425 both last Saturday.

o jesus thats some terrible luck.

Junior Wittier and Rocky Juarez are big question marks though. I would be much more confident putting money on a consistent fighter with a new trainer and invigorated passion like Cotto, whose fighitng a guy with a loss of passion who is probably cashing in on one last payday

[nyed1010]

free money or not, anything can happen, definitely not worth the risk considering how much you have to lay. If anything, like someone said above, if you going to bet on someone with such a ridiculously high price, throw them on some big parlay. I don't know what the percentage of huge favorites win in boxing, but one sport where you definitely do not want to put a lot of money on a big favorite is tennis. I remember laying money on a guy that was -500 and he won a total of 3 games.

[phillybadboy]

man that is a high price

[Ian]

I'm staying far away from this one. It's apparent to everyone that Mayorga is long past his sell by date, but Cotto may very well be not too far behind him. In 2 of his last 5 fights Cotto has taken horrific beatings. Imo he hasn't been the same since Margarito (very likely with plaster in his handwraps) did this to him. Then Pacquiao turned his face and possibly his brain into hamburger. These were the sort of sustained beatings that can ruin fighters, and Cotto endured it twice. During this time span his 3 wins came against: a totally outclassed borderline club fighter with major chin issues, a BS split decision "victory" over Joshua Clottey, and against a guy fighting on one leg who most people don't even think too highly of when he's fighting on two.

When you combine the above with the fact that if you were to know with certainty that Cotto is a 95% favorite to win your edge will still be less than 5%, this is an easy one to lay of off for me.

[Vaughany]

[sirchadwick1]

I don't like Cotto here straight up, but I'll gladly make a bet on him inside the distance at -225. I couldn't possibly lay the chalk at -950 even though he should win it.

[omalley21]

Ya i would take him inside the distance.

[phillybadboy]

don't take -950 dude, you grind away and get a bunch of little wins, and then 1 loss from a -950 bet erases all your hard work

[kball15]

don't take -950 dude, you grind away and get a bunch of little wins, and then 1 loss from a -950 bet erases all your hard work

yea thats very true

[HauntingTheHoly]

I don't like Cotto here straight up, but I'll gladly make a bet on him inside the distance at -225. I couldn't possibly lay the chalk at -950 even though he should win it.

I wouldn't bet inside the distance, either. It's just not a good fight to bet on any way you look at it. Which Mayorga will show up? Does Cotto have power at 154, where he has only one fight? Too many question marks. If you have some inside info on Mayorga and think he's got a shot, take him with that big payout. Otherwise, just stay out.

[phillybadboy]

yea thats very true

it has happened to me, but i am interested in this fight, two of my favorite guys

[kball15]

it has happened to me, but i am interested in this fight, two of my favorite guys

used to like Mayorga, but idk if you read that wikileaks thing about him, but Mayorga is a SCUMBAG.

He raped some girl in his nicaragua and got the case dropped in exchange for promoting some government official after his fights and for giving him like 30% of his purses.

[bruce_outside]

no, not a mistake. cotto outboxes mayorga by a mile.

[Varker]

its essentially free money. There's no way mayorga is training hard for this fight. He's basically done with boxing but has to fight because of contractual reasons.

[kball15]

its essentially free money. There's no way mayorga is training hard for this fight. He's basically done with boxing but has to fight because of contractual reasons.

That's EXACTLY how I feel, and also why i went big on the under

[Boddhissatva]

Bad bet....too much risk for such little reward.

Granted, I see Cotto breaking down Mayorga with body shots and better boxing skills for a late round stoppage...but Mayorga does have power and can land that one shot that turns the tide rather easily...

a better bet is Under 12 rounds or not going to distance.

[lasker]

I put boxing favorites in a parlay the other night, outta boredom. The first two lost, -425 & -1000, I don't know how many lost after that. As far as what you did, whatever works but the best free money is + money because small plays for big money can't ruin you like big plays for small money could.

This is excellent advice and should be heeded. Not that a -950 favorite can't have value, there can be value at any number, and I don't follow boxing so I can't say anything about this matchup. But be very careful laying that much chalk. Once for fun I tried a 25-team parlay for just $1 to win $5 on favorites that were all -1000 or more. Unfortunately the parlay won, giving me the stupid idea that I could make "free" money on some of these favorites when it seemed they couldn't lose. It took one big loss to cure me.

As a general rule, I'm convinced you're better off going with dogs more often than not, and that laying huge chalk should usually be avoided. -900 (and greater) favorites do lose, and much more frequently than we'd think. Just yesterday, the Orlando Magic were a -2000 favorite over the Sacramento Kings (the spread was -14.5) and they were completely outplayed in the 1st and 4th quarters and lost by six.

But again, I'm not saying this is a bad bet. Just to be very careful with such bets, especially in the future if this one hits.