Who r u leaning on? UFC 83 (April 19 - Saturday)

**goldengoat** · 04-17-08, 12:11 AM

i would say starnes is the best value for dog

i would be really surprised if mccarthy beat bisping

none of the lines jump out as a steal imo

**mundane** · 04-17-08, 02:37 AM

lines at my book:

serra +450
st. pierre -575

lutter +300
franklin -360

starnes +240
quarry -280

mccarthy +300
bisping -360

bocek +370
danzig -450

**barkus** · 04-17-08, 02:09 PM

I agree, Starnes is the best value. I think Bocek and Lutter are decent dogs.

**GordonGekko1** · 04-17-08, 04:18 PM

Sure Bisping is the favorite, but if your gonna take a dog on this card I'd go with McCarthy. Bisping is good but waaay overrated. No amount of UFC marketing and promotion can cover up his slightly above average skills.

On top of that McCarthy is healthy for the first time in 3 fights. This guy is a slugger. Few people know him right now, however they soon will no matter what happens in this fight.

**losingmyshirt** · 04-17-08, 08:44 PM

I think both Lutter and Starnes offer good value but I can't say I like the line you have available on Starnes to much. I got Lutter at +321 and Starnes at +276 when they first came out.

I also placed a small bet on Bocek at +400 more just because I know him and will be cheering hard for him more than anything else.

I also like Rich Clementi over Sam Stout which pinnancle has at +130 the last time I checked, Clementi is solid on the ground and should be able to submit Stout.

Bisping is overratted but I don't see any value with the line for that fight.

I also took GSP to beat Serra within the 5 rounds for -284 at 5dimes.

**slacker00** · 04-17-08, 09:16 PM

I'm not keen on Lutter, he hasn't distinguished himself as a top tier fighter, IMO. Franklin is top tier, even if he can't compete with Silva.

Serra at +400 is amazing value.

**Robyn** · 04-17-08, 09:27 PM

I want GSP to crush Serra. Not because of the odds, but because Serra is a loud mouth and needs to be destroyed.

I like Danzig to win. Bisping will lose this time because he is not in England for the fix. I would also go with Lutter at +300.

**twtb19** · 04-17-08, 10:38 PM

I really like Lutter and Starnes. I think Lutter is tough and if at any point this fight hits the ground Franklin will get subbed.

Starnes is a very solid overall fighter and definately has the ability to win, especially since Quarry has had a lot of health issues in the past. I don't think he is the fighter he once was and think it could be a very good fight.

**mundane** · 04-18-08, 09:24 AM

thanks for the replies guyz!

this is my first time 'capping' ufc fights. i watched a lot of ufc fights but never really bet on them. so im hoping for a beginner's luck!

im gonna play 3 dogs:

mccarthy +300 ~ liking this one a lot!
lutter +300
starnes +240

round robin by 2's @$30 (3bets 2teamers) = $90

i got swayed on starnes/quarry card - i had quarry initially but i watched old starnes fights on youtube and they look decent. altho i saw his last fight in ufc where he was cut open in the forehead and i wasn't really impressed by him. quarry i think is bigger, meaner and powerful. ...but it seems like a lot of u guys like starnes on this card and i dont really know how quarry is now. i think it was an old footage ive watched and liked. hoping u guys are right and im wrong.

so just to make sure, im gonna do a round robin parlay with these 3 dogs. if 2 dogs win, profit of $288 or $360. if 3, a whopping $1116! (given and hoping those lines are still up at my books)

since i like mccarthy a lot over bisping, im playing mccarthy for $50 to win $150!

i pick GSP and danzig to win in their respective fights but with that high of a line? i think it's not worth it.

not even parlaying it with some dogs.

*will edit if there are any changes on the lines.

**mundane** · 04-18-08, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by losingmyshirt

I also took GSP to beat Serra within the 5 rounds for -284 at 5dimes.

-284 ??? damn!!! that is a steal! cash dat sonuva!

**losingmyshirt** · 04-18-08, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by mundane

-284 ??? damn!!! that is a steal! cash dat sonuva!

My thoughts exactly.

Best of luck with your bets mundane

**tallmike105** · 04-18-08, 01:50 PM

Charles who?

Are we all ok out there? Charles is going to get worked, just like GSP.
Serra in 2 by KO

**diogee** · 04-18-08, 01:53 PM

Good luck guys...cash some winnas

**mundane** · 04-18-08, 05:01 PM

edit: little tweak on playing my 3 underdogs.

3 straight bets of $40.
1 round robin by 2's @20 = $60.

total risk = $180

my initially posted possible bets were going for 2 dogs to win or mccarthy to win - i realized that's almost a long shot. if one only come through and it's not maccarthy, i lose my bets outright. now with these 2 bets, if 1 dog only come through, i can get more than half+ of my total ri$k back (a lose of either $20 or $44 only! that's not too bad in my book!) also, if 2 dogs come through, it would be $308 or $380 profit. if 3 dogs come through, it would be $1000+ profit! almost the same as my initially posted possible bets. i'd rather play it these way than losing my money outright with only 1 dog coming through.

kinda anal on my part u might say but this is how i play my money - always playing 'defensively' risk-wise. it's what works for me.

besides im playing 3 underdogs here, gotta play it 'intelligently', if there ever is such a thing in betting. lol!

so 2 dog win pls!

(or 3! lol) even with 1 i wont be dat disappointed!

goodluck fellas!