losingmyshirt's UFN 13 plays

[losingmyshirt]

Straight bets
Lauzon over Florian @ +186 5 Units
Pellegrino over Diaz @ +166 4 Units
Irvin over Alexander @ +241 2 Units
Edgar over Maynard @ -156 5 Units

Parlays
Edgar/Pelligrino 0.5 Units
Edgar/Lauzon 0.5 Units
Edgar/Pelligrino/Lauzon 0.25 Units

Alot of really nice lines on this card in my mind.
I couldn't believe when I saw Edgar at -156 when the line first opened, using quarter kelly the correct bet would have been 15 Units based on my handicapping but with a sport that is full of suprises I kept the bet more modest.

While I think Alexander will probably beat Irvin because of his greater power +241 offers to much value to pass up.

I think Pelligrino has the strength and grappling skills required to control Diaz and either get a TKO, submission or decision victory.

Lauzon and Florian should be a great fight, I would put it more like 50/50 so getting Lauzon as a nice dog is a solid bet.

The lines on a number of the fights have bounced around like crazy on pinnacle since they opened last night so I was able to secure a solid arbitrage bet on the Speer/Johnson fight that will at the very least cover the cost of the parlays if they are duds. I could have also secured small profits on Diaz/Pelligrino and Edgar/Maynard but would rather take my chances with the lines I got them at.

I have been on an amazing run with MMA so far in 2008 here's hoping it continues tomorrow night!

[twtb19]

I really like the Pelligrino fight and think he should be favored except he isn't nearly as popular as Diaz. He is a stronger better wrestler, more power on the feet, more fluid on the feet and is just as good if not better on the ground. He even kept Stevenson on his back most of the fight and was never in any real trouble in the fight. I think he wins this fight convincingly.

[mundane]

alves +150
parisyan -170

boetsch +165
hamill -185

who do we pick on these two other games?

im tailing u guyz esp on pellegrino (+145 at my book right now)
unfortunately i dont see the edgar fight being posted at my book. 'seems like that's the one u like the most too losingmyshirt.

[losingmyshirt]

I really like the Pelligrino fight and think he should be favored except he isn't nearly as popular as Diaz. He is a stronger better wrestler, more power on the feet, more fluid on the feet and is just as good if not better on the ground. He even kept Stevenson on his back most of the fight and was never in any real trouble in the fight. I think he wins this fight convincingly.

Completely agree with you.

alves +150
parisyan -170

boetsch +165
hamill -185

who do we pick on these two other games?

im tailing u guyz esp on pellegrino (+145 at my book right now)
unfortunately i dont see the edgar fight being posted at my book. 'seems like that's the one u like the most too losingmyshirt.

For both Hamil/Boetsch and Parisyan/Alves I think the lines are about where they should be and don't offer enough value either way to justify a bet.

Unfortunate you can't get action on edgar/maynard. I definetly love Edgar in this fight, in my mind if you can get him at -250 or better you've got a solid bet.

[barkus]

Great picks, losing. You got a nice line on Edgar. Good luck tonight.

I'm on Alves, Lauzon, Pellegrino, Boetsch, Johnson, Edgar, Irvin (in order of how much $ I have on them).

[losingmyshirt]

Great picks, losing. You got a nice line on Edgar. Good luck tonight.

I'm on Alves, Lauzon, Pellegrino, Boetsch, Johnson, Edgar, Irvin (in order of how much $ I have on them).

Thanks barkus, good luck with your bets as well.

[mundane]

i played pellegrino +155 for 5 units.

goodluck all!

[losingmyshirt]

Pelligrino seemed to be seriously overconfident in the second after a very dominating performance in the first round. Hopefully the rest of the card goes more in my favour....

[losingmyshirt]

Straight bets
Lauzon over Florian @ +186 5 Units -5 Units
Pellegrino over Diaz @ +166 4 Units -4 Units
Irvin over Alexander @ +241 2 Units +2.4 Units
Edgar over Maynard @ -156 5 Units -5 Units

Parlays
Edgar/Pelligrino 0.5 Units
Edgar/Lauzon 0.5 Units
Edgar/Pelligrino/Lauzon 0.25 Units
-1.25 Units

Speer/Johnson Arb +1.25 Units

A painful night for me.

Florian looked great, Pelligrino was in control before getting caught in a triangle and Maynard used his size and strength to control the fight and earn the decision.

Hope it went better for everyone else than it did for me.

[goldengoat]

Florian doesn't look like he'd be a tough son of a gun but he is and has been so for a couple years

those razorblade elbows are kind of annoying though

[losingmyshirt]

Florian doesn't look like he'd be a tough son of a gun but he is and has been so for a couple years

those razorblade elbows are kind of annoying though

No one can doubt his toughness, he's also done a great job of improving his conditioning since his first couple of UFC fights. At +186 though no regrets for betting on Lauzon.

I'm just glad I had plenty of cold beers in my fridge tonight, helps after your bankroll takes a bit of a beating lol.

[goldengoat]

No one can doubt his toughness, he's also done a great job of improving his conditioning since his first couple of UFC fights. At +186 though no regrets for betting on Lauzon.

I'm just glad I had plenty of cold beers in my fridge tonight, helps after your bankroll takes a bit of a beating lol.

i didn't bet any of it

good thing though cause I might have taken a loss