The money Play this Saturday, Aaron Simpson +125

[Boddhissatva]

The Key to making money off MMA is not betting favorites, (especially significant favorites). It is betting on underdogs, because often the odds makers are missing something or over looked a key factor. Yushin Okami this past week was a key example.

As we have all seen and witnessed, anything can happen in MMA.

See:

Fedor vs Werdum
GSP vs Serra I
Mike Brown vs Manny Gamburyan
Koshchek vs Paulo Thiago
etc.

The money Play this Saturday is Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Munoz. I have no idea why Simpson is the slight dog. This fight should be even, if not giving Simpson the edge.

I have never seen a Munoz fight where I thought, "wow, Munoz is really good."

He got destroyed by Hamil, got wrecked by Okami, and snuck by Grove simply because Grove has a glass jaw.

Aaron SImpson on the other hand has looked brilliant and naturally talented in some of his fights.

And in the first round against Leben he looked fantastic.

Simpson obviously didn't properly condition for that fight and paid a heavy consequence after gassing and panicking.

I have SImpson exploding in the first round (like he does in all of his fights) and stopping Munoz early.

What are your thoughts? All opinions welcome.

[Vaughany]

Clearly the value play in this fight is Simpson at +145 (originally +155) if one was to make a play on either fighter. He was a -400 favourite against Leben and now is suddenly a +145 underdog against a fighter that isn't that much more skilled than Leben. Of course, the difference between Munoz and Leben is the wrestling pedigree, but as Munoz has showed in the octagon, the difference doesnt warrant odds ranging from -155 to -200 (Sports Int. book), especially since Simpson was a high-level All-American wrestler himself. I expected the odds to be closer to evens as well, with Munoz up to -120 and Simpson at Evens to +110. IMO Munoz will be the bigger and stronger fighter regardless of wrestling levels and will also have more power. Simpson meanwhile will have better speed, involving better footwork and head movement and will throw more combinations. Cardio was the issue in the last fight as he gassed after putting so much pressure on Leben and attempting more takedowns in the second round. Hopefully he will have learnt from that and realise that he needs to pace himself better. Furthermore, I believe that the 'controversial' move from Arizona Combat Sports which Jamie Varner branded Simpson, Dolloway and Bader traitors for may have had a negative impact on his training for the Leben fight as they were only just setting up the Power MMA centre.

With regard to the outcome of the fight, I don't foresee Simpson TKO/KO'ing or submitting Munoz. I've read some people on other sites saying that Munoz doesn't have a good chin with particular references to the Grove fight. From what I can remember, it was a pretty solid uppercut that Grove landed on Munoz, and it's impact would of been increased as Munoz was shooting in to it. An uppercut is one of the most dangerous punches yet Munoz managed to recover from it. Furthermore, Munoz then too a big knee to the face in the second round which still didnt finish him and this was after two submission attempts that Munoz escaped from in the first round. And anybody that thinks MUnoz has a weak chin because of the Hamill leg kick KO is retarded! Munoz has been training with Soszynski and Babalu and rest of Team Alliance recently and of course with the Blackhouse team so is constantly training with high-level fighters which can only help Munoz improve...as Joe Rogan likes to say "Steal sharpens steal"!.

Overall, IMO it makes more sense to take Simpson by decision (if the prop is available on your book) as long as it's better (and presuming it will be) than +250 as I feel if Atrain does beat Munoz, it would be by decision at least 50% of the time. I wouldnt rule out a third round TKO, but I think if anybody is going to get the TKO/KO it will be Munoz so may be worth straddling Simpson by dec with Munoz by TKO/KO. Munoz could also take a decision but it would mean him seriously rocking Simpson at some point in the fight, or dominating him on the ground through takedowns which I just dont foresee happening based on Simpson's wrestling credentials and Munoz's track record of takedown attempts in the octagon. Moreover, Simpson will throw more punches so will score more points standing than Munoz IMO.

[RaiderNation MMA]

i wouldnt take simpson here, at the end of the day they are both one dimensonal wrestlers with so so striking, i think munoz wins. plus okami didnt "wreck" him it was a pretty close fight, a split decision i think it was, okami stopped the shot but didnt do anything.

anything can happen in mma, such as the list u provided, but keep in mind more often than not the favorite wins.

[omalley21]

Munoz is underrated. Im not touching this one.

[bogbat]

I got +150, not sure if I would have taken him at +125 but if you're a high volume gambler + anything isn't a bad bet for this fight. It should be an entertaining evenly matched fight.

[Vaughany]

I got +150, not sure if I would have taken him at +125 but if you're a high volume gambler + anything isn't a bad bet for this fight. It should be an entertaining evenly matched fight.

Yee not sure I'd take him at +125, especially when I know most other books have him at +145.

[The HOFF]

I'm in agreement with Boddhissatva. Munoz is over-rated and his wrestling has not translated to MMA. Simpson has shown improvement in his fights; Munoz has not. I have Simpson +150 and looking at putting more on him now.

[lasker]

Munoz should not be underestimated. This will probably be a no-play for me, but if I do make a bet it will be on Munoz at these odds. Still thinking it over.

Consider that Munoz is 3-1 as a UFC middleweight, with that sole loss being to Okami (who now has a very real chance of being the next middleweight champ). Munoz looked no worse than Marquardt did against Okami. Meanwhile, the fact that his wrestling has not translated well to MMA doesn't mean he won't be able to take Simpson down, or that Simpson will be able to take him down at will. He's managed to get takedowns against all his opponents except extremely strong wrestlers in Hamill and Okami. I expect both Munoz and Simpson to get takedowns at some point, but they won't be able to hold the other down. Simpson can look awesome if he is able to outwrestle and dominate his opponent, but I don't think he'll be able to here. The fight will most likely be decided on the feet, and in my opinion Simpson's chin is more questionable than Munoz' chin, and his striking defense is poor. Also Munoz probably packs more power in his punches, and if he puts Simpson on his back his g'n'p is frightening, so all in all I think he is the deserving favorite.

[Vaughany]

Although I originally thought Simpson was the right play in this one at +145, Im now having doubts after reading up his recent issues with staph infection and after hearing other rumours allbeit unsubtantiated) that he's not coming into this fight with the best camp under his belt or in the best health. Im going to do some more research before making a decision, but I did think it was strange that he's not been doing any blogs or videos on his website, as in the past he's always been doing videos of his training and providing updates on facebook and stuff. This time he's been virtually invisible! Here is one of the articles I found about his staph and problems with recovery (this was a couple of months ago though)...

The struggles of an athlete competing in mixed martial arts are many. The range of trying concerns can include anything from being able to afford reputable training, fighter’s health care, agent representation, the list goes on and on.

As a traditional sport athlete, the pitfalls may be many, but there are more than enough safety nets to support ailing athletes. Such is not the case for athletes that compete in MMA.

If a ball player stubs their toe, there is a long line of professional sports medicine trainers and massage therapists to nurse them back to 100%. It is a very safe and healthy environment. No one wants to suffer, but if they do they know it’s taken care of.

It’s a whole new world for athletes with the talent and desire to become world class mixed martial artists. In a sport that is inherently dangerous, where bumps, bruises, breaks, and cuts are a common occurrence, health care is sadly not a high priority for organizations putting on the show.

That fact is hitting very close to home for the extremely promising middleweight UFC fighter Aaron Simpson. Simpson has suffered an extremely dangerous staph infection that stems from a training injury he sustained preparing for a September UFC Fight Night bout with Dave Branch.

Simpson is in a very trying time in his MMA career and his life at the moment.
He is not where he wants to be, which is training for his next fight. He is forced to undergo a gruelling rehabilitation program to get ready to start training again as soon as possible.

And as mentioned before, Aaron is getting no support from the sport that he has chosen to make his career. There is no on-site trainer. The only help he gets is produced by his own efforts. The treatment for his ailment is not even close to affordable, especially for a family man with mouths to feed.

Simpson was kind enough to spend a moment with Hurtsbad.com to discuss how he found himself in this situation, how he is coping with it, and what he is looking forward to once he conquers this difficult test in his life and career.

Simpson was in good spirits but obviously already fed up with the situation.

“I’m just ready to get done with it. I've got a pick line, it’s an IV that is on every day, that's getting old. Not to mention its really expensive for not having insurance. It’s costing me close to $200 per day and I’ve still got a couple more weeks of that.”

Simpson agreed that fighters health care is an issue that doesn't get the attention it deserves amongst those in a position to assist competitors and athletes in this sport.

“Especially when you have a family. That's the really a hard part. At this point this is my career, this is what I'm doing, it’s a full time job in my opinion to train like we do. That's something the UFC isn't covering, they're not taking care of us as far as insurance goes.”

Simpson went on to say, “It’s kind of a hard pill to swallow because you're expected to pay for your own insurance.”

Aaron discussed how the staph took hold in his body and how it progressed from there.

“It was a nose injury that ended up becoming infected. I guess we carry staph in our nose. I originally thought it was a broken nose the way it swelled up. It really was just an infection that wound up spreading through my body.”

Simpson added, “It took hold in my elbow. I’ve had an injured elbow, and it was able to go in there and really do some damage. That’s where they ended up having to cut me, and clean the infection out of my elbow.”

For a man who fights for a living, it was obvious that this ailment is one of Simpson’s most difficult tests.

“To me it’s one of the most painful things I’ve been through. I haven't had a whole lot of surgeries so I’ve been pretty fortunate. The fact that is was just cranking so bad, it was really frustrating.”

Simpson also talked about how it threw his schedule off.

“Now it has set me back a month of training, because of this IV. It has obviously taken me out of the September 16th fight, and that payday against a good opponent. It pushes my fight schedule back to November possibly December. Which when you sit out for a month, it takes a while to get back into shape and get everything clicking.”

The severity of the infection is something Simpson was sure to mention.

“Staph infection is no joke, especially when there can be different kinds of staph. This ended up being one that people know has been going around gyms, which is MRSA. That can be deadly. If you don't catch it soon enough, you can lose a limb or lose your life. Thankfully I caught it soon enough.”

For a man who lives in a gym more often than not, it is trying for Aaron to be reduced to very little activity at all, even if it is for the sake of his own well being.

“I can not do anything with this pic line. It runs through my bicep and sits right above my heart, probably about an inch away. That is so every morning I can receive antibiotic that goes right to my heart and basically goes out through my entire body.”

Simpson added, “That’s the stressing point, I can’t do anything, I can’t sweat or I risk infection, I can’t get my heart rate up or I risk hindering the progression of the drug, it has been the worst. Now I'm stuck every day watching TV, I'm trying do some kind of exercises to keep my muscles moving, but it’s getting old quick.”

Simpson is fortunate to have his family to help him through these troubling times in his career.

“I have two little twin babies, that are two years old, they really put a smile on my face. My wife has been really great, she takes over and helps me through my recovery. She’s actually going through some medical stuff herself, so that's why were having some issues with insurance and everything. We will get through this and have brighter days.”

Speaking of brighter days, Simpson is looking forward to a goal he and a few partners have set for themselves. Simpson, Ryan Bader, and C.B. Dollaway with the help of investors are looking to open a state of the art MMA facility in Gilbert AZ, called Power MMA and Fitness.

Simpson has had quite a run in the UFC at middleweight. When asked about fighters like Anderson Silva, Nate Marquardt, and Chael Sonnen mixed with his goals in the division, he is going for the gold.

“I’m a little older now. I have a lot of experience in one on one competition. I do set my sights high. I feel like I can be one of the best in this sport at this weight division. I feel like I can beat any of those guys.”

He also was sure to add, “Of course you take it one fight at a time and take what Joe Silva gives us, but I think I can beat any of those guys. With the training camp that I have and the support staff that I have, and my training partners, it’s definitely possible.”

When he returns to the mats, and eventually the cage, Simpson wants to forge his legacy against the top of the food chain. He understands it takes time, but his heart is set on facing the best.

“I want to fight the best guys, whether that's getting up and fighting Marquardt or Chael. I don't think they will give me those fights right off the bat, you've got to earn it and get back in and get the wins.”

Judging by Simpson’s performance thus far, it is only a matter of healing today, and time tomorrow before he finds what he is looking for. His combination of world class wrestling, and lethal striking make him a formidable foe for anyone who makes their home at MW in the UFC.

On behalf of all the staff at Hurtsbad.com, we wish Mr. Aaron Simpson a speedy recovery from his bout with staph, and thank him for his time during this trying stretch of his MMA career.

Chin up Aaron. We look forward to seeing you back in action before you know it.

[NickBaragona]

Well, after reading that I'm gonna take Munoz.

[Vaughany]

Well, after reading that I'm gonna take Munoz.

Although it could all be speculation, I have to wonder from what he is saying about financial pressures whether he is taking this fight prematurely and against his better judgement simply because he needs a payday urgently??? He's had about 2 months I guess since recovering but I imagine it takes a few weeks just to get back to the condition that you were in before the staph occured which means he'd only have a month to 6 weeks (which of course may be, and is for many, ample training camp time) to get ready for this fight, but you have to question whether it will all be too much too soon for him. I wouldnt be surprised to see him lose then come out and say that he perhaps shouldn't of taken the fight and should of waited till the new year or something!

[lasker]

Great find Vaughany, thanks

[ddream1]

i think the key to mma betting is picking fighter value not odds value. on paper ur all right, simpson has value, picking who u just thinks wins no odds involved i pick munoz slightly, than do research, watch tape etc etc and make a conclusion like vaug's fight breakdown and probablity, article etc. break the fight down 1st then look at odds. i"m passing but that article wow makes u think.

[Chairib]

lol

[Educ8d Degener8]

After observing Simpson's gameplan in his fight with Leben, I don't think I could bring myself to bet on him again.

Ever.

[Vaughany]

lol

ha What are your thoughts on this Chairib? I see your ever present sarcasm and disdain is as ripe as ever!

[Kaladarus]

ha What are your thoughts on this Chairib? I see your ever present sarcasm and disdain is as ripe as ever!

Thanks for the post Vaughany. I still like a small play on Simpson, but this information really helps.

[Boddhissatva]

Thank Vaug for that article. After that I'm thinking about not wagering on this fight.

[Vaughany]

Thank Vaug for that article. After that I'm thinking about not wagering on this fight.

No worries bro, I posted as I just thought that it's something to take in to consideration, however I wouldnt use it as verbatim or completely change your opinion on who you think will win as a result of it. The article was written over 2 months agoa and Simpson seems to be in good spirits currently and his teammates are sayin he's had a great camp and is in great shape, but then I guess his teammates would say that! I just think that the Leben fight showed tht even though I though Simpson was/is a cardio machine, he can still gas if he is overzealous, and that a recovery from staph straight after that fight isnt going to help in trying to combat those issues that Leben exposed. Simpson has said in interviews that the key problem was his desperation and being too aggressive suggesting that he is going to pace himself a lot more in this fight, which has led me to just betting on the fight going the distance rather than betting on either fighter to win.

[Chairib]

ha What are your thoughts on this Chairib? I see your ever present sarcasm and disdain is as ripe as ever!

Sarcastic?? You must have me mistaken for someone else, I'm deadly serious in all of my endeavors.

Right now I'm leaning towards Simposn by decision. I'm sort of hesitant on betting on this fight because this wrestler vs wrestler match kind of screams split decision.

It's going to come down to Munoz' striking and how much he's been able to improve on it since August. He reminds me a lot Ortiz, they don't like getting hit and they start to telgraph because of it.

Doh, I just part of that article you posted. Now I'm going to have to make a couple of phone calls.

[Vaughany]

Sarcastic?? You must have me mistaken for someone else, I'm deadly serious in all of my endeavors.

Right now I'm leaning towards Simposn by decision. I'm sort of hesitant on betting on this fight because this wrestler vs wrestler match kind of screams split decision.

It's going to come down to Munoz' striking and how much he's been able to improve on it since August. He reminds me a lot Ortiz, they don't like getting hit and they start to telgraph because of it.

Doh, I just part of that article you posted. Now I'm going to have to make a couple of phone calls.

ha that is worrying! What part of the article was it? Im thinking Simpson by decision as well but have just made a small play on the fight going to decision at Evens in the end. As you say the wrestler vs wrestler style often leads to close decisions. Simpson saying that he's going to be less aggressive off the bat, with a more calculated and paced strategy also makes me think that it could go the distance.

Was going to ask for a breakdown of the grappling for Sotiropolous/Lauzon as well? I like Sot to take a decision in that one.

[Chairib]

ha that is worrying! What part of the article was it? Im thinking Simpson by decision as well but have just made a small play on the fight going to decision at Evens in the end. As you say the wrestler vs wrestler style often leads to close decisions. Simpson saying that he's going to be less aggressive off the bat, with a more calculated and paced strategy also makes me think that it could go the distance.

Was going to ask for a breakdown of the grappling for Sotiropolous/Lauzon as well? I like Sot to take a decision in that one.

Simpson and Munoz are not only friends but have a lot of history between them with the wrestling and they've trained with each other for MMA as well. Historically, those factors do not make for a fight that will end decisively. Plus Munoz don't like getting hit and that causes him to not only shoot from further out but really telegraphs what he's trying to do.

I'm going to watch Simpson's fight with Leben and Munoz' fight with Okami again.

I'm more than happy to breakdown the grappling between Sotiropolous and Creepy Joe. My intial thoughts is advantage Sotiroppoljkiasioasjos but let me watch some film and get reacquainted.

[Vaughany]

Simpson and Munoz are not only friends but have a lot of history between them with the wrestling and they've trained with each other for MMA as well. Historically, those factors do not make for a fight that will end decisively. Plus Munoz don't like getting hit and that causes him to not only shoot from further out but really telegraphs what he's trying to do.

I'm going to watch Simpson's fight with Leben and Munoz' fight with Okami again.

I'm more than happy to breakdown the grappling between Sotiropolous and Creepy Joe. My intial thoughts is advantage Sotiroppoljkiasioasjos but let me watch some film and get reacquainted.

Yee battles between 'buddies' do tend to go to decision (especially wrestling on wrestler ones as you say)...I can think of Ortiz vs Hamill and Lytle vs Serra (although not wrestlers) off top of my head!

Nice one Look forward to reading it. Also, while we're at it, would be good if you could give a breakdown of Bocek and McLovin grappling match-up as well before 124 comes round. Im thinking of going reasonably big on Bocek if I can get him at -150 or better. Im hoping the bookies don't catch on to the fact that he actually controlled Jim Miller for majority of that last fight and put out a generous line! I personally think Bocek will have the advantage everywhere, except for reach of course.

[jin2daj]

i think this is a no bet as well. both simpson and munoz use the same gameplan. generally when 2 wrestler go at it, it comes down to the striking. and i know nothing about either of their striking abilities.