UFC 118: Ruediger vs Lauzon

[KCJMAC]

With Terry Etim's injury, UFC 118 now has a match between two former TUF Season 5 teammates: Gabe Ruediger and Joe Lauzon.

Anyone who saw Gabe on The Ultimate Fighter will never forget one of the most embarrassing performances ever on a reality tv show, but Gabe has managed to rebuild his career since then. He is currently on a 6 fight win streak across various promotions, with 6 finishes.

Joe Lauzon has a record of 4-2 in the UFC over much tougher competition, including a recent decision loss to Sam Stout, and a TKO loss to Top 5 Lightweight Kenny Florian.

Both men prefer to fight on the ground, but I think Joe has at least a slight advantage there, as well as more significant advantages in striking, wrestling, and cardio.

Odds haven't been posted yet, but I like Lauzon up to -400 or so.

Anyone else planning to bet this match?

[snake11eyes]

Maybe Reudiger will get another colonic to help him make weight. I'll take Lauzon up to -300 after that theres not much value there. If its higher than that I'll put him in a couple parlays. He shouldn't have any trouble with Reudiger.

[Vaughany]

No value at -400 IMO!

[KCJMAC]

Maybe I'm overestimating Lauzon's ability. I'm a little surprised the line isn't out yet. Event is in 11 days.

Should be a good opportunity for anyone who likes underdogs, though. Vast majority of the people who watched Season 5 of TUF will be betting on Lauzon.

[36mafia]

LMFAO Gabe Ruediger!
never thought this **** would fight in the ufc again

[36mafia]

....

[jin2daj]

no value

[Straight Cash]

Lauzon will win, but not worth a bet at this value.

[vassman86]

Lauzon will win, but not worth a bet at this value.

Well put. Any MMA ML bet on a favourite at such high juice is outrageous.

[KCJMAC]

Updated my blog post on this fight:


Background:
Lauzon is 18-5-0 overall, with 14 finishes by submission. He is 5-2 in the UFC, with losses to Kenny Florian by 2nd round TKO and to Sam Stout by unanimous decision. He currently fights out of Lauzon MMA, and is unranked in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.

Ruediger is 17-5 overall, with 12 finishes by submission. He is 0-1 in the UFC, losing to Melvin Guillard via the extremely rare body shot KO. He currently fights out of Team Quest, and is unranked in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.

This bout reunites former The Ultimate Fighter: Season 5 teammates, and anyone who watched that series will never forget Ruediger's antics including the first ever TUF on-camera colonic, his hatred of UFC lightweight Matt Wiman, his love of ice cream cake, and his subsequent failure to make weight in dramatic fashion.

Lauzon and Ruediger have no recent common opponents.

Skills:
Lauzon is a grappler and relies on his quickness to achieve takedowns, and then looks for finishes by submission.

Ruediger is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and Muay Thai practitioner who is comfortable on the ground or on his feet, although he is much more likely to finish a fight from the ground.

Matchup:
Lauzon will most likely use his jab to set up takedowns, attempt to move the fight to the ground as soon as possible, and then work for submissions. While his strength is not overwhelming, Lauzon has a surprisingly effective top game that he applies intelligently to set up his submissions.

Ruediger may wish to keep the fight standing where he has at least a slight advantage, but it is unlikely he will be able to for 15 minutes. On the ground he may find his hands full with Lauzon in his guard due to a combination of ground and pound and repeated submission attempts.

Lines:
Lines have not been released for this fight yet, since Ruediger is a late replacement for Terry Etim. I expect the line to open somewhere near Lauzon -150 / Ruediger +150, and also expect significant money to come in on Lauzon, moving the line quickly to -200 / +200 or beyond.

Prediction:
I expect this fight to go more than two rounds. In the third round, I expect Ruediger to tire, and Lauzon to win by submission.

Wager(s):
I believe Lauzon wins this fight better than two-thirds of the time, so I like him up to -200.

A prop bet on the fight not going the full three round distance may also be an option, as Lauzon has only been to decision once in 23 fights, while Ruediger has been to decision twice in 22 fights. (However, another factor to consider is that Ruediger very much wants to be back in the UFC, and he may find that the opportunity to grind out a close decision rather than risk a loss too appealing to pass up.)

A parlay with Lauzon may also be worthwhile due to potentially favorable odds and the high likelihood that he will win the fight.