1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
    THE_LOCKSMITH's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-25-08
    Posts: 7,231
    Betpoints: 4619

    UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev (December 10 2022)



    Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
    Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev (for vacant light heavyweight title)
    Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon
    Robbie Lawler vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
    Dricus du Plessis vs. Darren Till
    Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria

    ESPN2 8:00 pm ET
    Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus
    Jay Perrin vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
    Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula
    Ovince Saint Preux vs. Antonio Trocoli

    ESPN+ 5:30 pm ET
    Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley
    Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez
    T.J. Brown vs. Erik Silva
    Daniel da Silva vs. Vinicius Salvador
    Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow



    Points Awarded:

    spurginobili gave THE_LOCKSMITH 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    JIBBBY gave THE_LOCKSMITH 4 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    povis
    Update your status
    povis's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-31-16
    Posts: 187
    Betpoints: 242

    Robbie Lawler has withdrawn from his fight with Ponzinibbio so it's still solid fight night card. Till was overrated maybe now is become underrated at those odds.

  3. #3
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    I wouldn't even bet on Till with my enemies money. I think he'll get finished ITD.

    Definitely taking Gordon at those odds. Inflated odds b/c of thr Paddy hype.

    Definitely taking Shahbazyan. The UFC is giving him an old fart to get back on track. Good parlay filler or maybe ITD.

    At those odds it's tempting to bet on Blacho but the way he lost the belt to Glover, idk man. The Rakic fight doesn't count. Legendary bla bla aside, the guy is 39. Ankalaev is dangerous however not sure how he'll do in 5 rounds.

  4. #4
    magpie878
    magpie878's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-04-18
    Posts: 1,392
    Betpoints: 6368

    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    At those odds it's tempting to bet on Blacho but the way he lost the belt to Glover, idk man. The Rakic fight doesn't count. Legendary bla bla aside, the guy is 39. Ankalaev is dangerous however not sure how he'll do in 5 rounds.
    Only once, but Ankalaev did go the full 5 with Santos, for what that's worth.

  5. #5
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Quote Originally Posted by magpie878 View Post
    Only once, but Ankalaev did go the full 5 with Santos, for what that's worth.
    Indeed and he certainly didn't look all that good against washed up Santos.

    Ankalev afterwards said that he didn't finish him ITD so he can experience the full 5 rounds. Well, I don't know about that. He didn't really look impressive against Santos and certainly not because he willingly went 5 rounds.

  6. #6
    Brandt Moat
    Brandt Moat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-26-21
    Posts: 885
    Betpoints: 2878

    I'm in agreement. I favor DuPlessis. Think he is being over valued. Not crazy about laying that kind of chaulk on him. Not sure what we are getting with Till. Not sure if he was Aljamains' ball washer for over a year or did he better himself?

    Quote Originally Posted by povis View Post
    Robbie Lawler has withdrawn from his fight with Ponzinibbio so it's still solid fight night card. Till was overrated maybe now is become underrated at those odds.

  7. #7
    Brandt Moat
    Brandt Moat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-26-21
    Posts: 885
    Betpoints: 2878

    Just noticed it climbed in the last 24 or so hours by 20 points.

  8. #8
    hankcream
    hankcream's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-30-10
    Posts: 2,040
    Betpoints: 1760

    Pretty weak pay per view, Topuria - Mitchell looks like the best fight on the card
    Top dog plays for me: da Silva, Perrin, Curtis, Till
    20 unit play Topuria

  9. #9
    GunShard
    Invest In Ethereum And Bitcoin
    GunShard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 9,810
    Betpoints: 36

    I'm betting on this safe parlay on Paddy and Magomed.

  10. #10
    Kermit
    My Finger Smells Like Pork
    Kermit's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-10
    Posts: 31,835
    Betpoints: 1312

    Cool, Raul Rosas Jr is fighting. Kid is only 18 years old.

  11. #11
    GunShard
    Invest In Ethereum And Bitcoin
    GunShard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 9,810
    Betpoints: 36


  12. #12
    Brandt Moat
    Brandt Moat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-26-21
    Posts: 885
    Betpoints: 2878

    I'm lost for a solid single pick on this card. Was leaning DuPlessis, but odds are out of hand. I'm taking (Billy Q,Buckley,Erik Silva) +400 on a 3 leg parlay. My dog play Parlay is (Koslow,deSilva) +725. I think Rosenstruik is an o.k. play. I'm not officially down on any of these picks. Most likely sitn this one out. Will be in the mix next week for that card. I have had that in my sights for a few months.GL
    Just a word for our resident diok face Jibby Lips, you suck dude. What a low life fook. Don't bother talkin or cryin like a bitch. You're a person that talks about dead people they don't even know??? You are one low life fook. Karma must haunt you so much. Guys like you are cursed for their ways. Enjoy your life of misery. Nobody likes you!lol What does thatt feel like Jibby Lips?

  13. #13
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Write ups -




    145 lbs.: Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez

    Billy Quarantillo (16-4) parlayed his Contender Series stoppage of Kamuela Kirk into three consecutive UFC. “Billy Q” has since lost two of three, though he claimed a post-fight bonus for his beatdown of Gabriel Benitez.
    This marks his first cage appearance in 13 months, as he withdrew from a planned July 2022 clash with Bill Algeo.
    Alexander Hernandez (13-5) exploded onto the scene with impressive wins over Beneil Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his first two UFC bouts. His current 3-4 run has seen him alternate losses and wins, and “The Great” is coming off a career-first submission defeat to Renato Moicano.
    This will be his first Featherweight appearance since 2013.
    I don’t think moving to 145 is the cure-all Hernandez is looking for, and especially not against someone with the insane pace of Quarantillo. There’s no question that “The Great” will look good early thanks to his solid boxing and the wrestling that’s bedeviled “Billy Q” time and again in the cage. It’s just hard to see him keeping it up; he can be a frontrunner at times, a tendency that certainly won’t be helped with the unfamiliar physical drain of a larger weight cut.
    Again, Hernandez is probably going to have a great time of it when they’re both fresh. I just don’t trust him to keep it up once his body starts to give out and Quarantillo’s landed punches hit the triple digits. Quarantillo does his usual avalanche thing for a late finish.
    Prediction: Quarantillo via third round technical knockout
    Related
    Lawler Pulled From UFC 282

    205 lbs.: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Antonio Trocoli

    Ovince Saint Preux (26-16) clawed his way out of a three-fight losing streak with stoppage wins in four of his next five fights, three of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He’s now 3-5 in his last eight, most recently edging out “Shogun” Rua in an incredibly unnecessary rematch.
    His finishes are split 11/9 between knockouts and submissions.
    An upset submission over Kenneth Bergh on Contender Series appeared to earn Antonio Trocoli (12-3) a UFC contract, only for it to go up in smoke when the Brazilian failed a drug test. His lone fight of the last three years saw him choke out Reslley Isael to extend his unbeaten streak to four.
    He steps in for Philipe Lins, who himself stepped in for Alexander Gustafsson, on less than two weeks’ notice.
    Speaking as a diehard fan of “Shogun,” going to a split decision with him in the Year of Our Lord 2022 is a pretty good sign that the wheels have come off. The sheer athleticism that carried Saint Preux farther than his limited technical ability ever could alone is well on its way out, and what’s left is more awkward than effective.
    Might still be enough to beat Trocoli, though. It’s admittedly hard to get a bead on him when he’s had 2:10 of fight time since 2019, but he seems like the kind of guy Saint Preux can kite on the feet and/or control against the fence. Feels like we might get another Von Flue out of this if Trocoli beefs a takedown.
    Prediction: Saint Preux via second round submission
    Related
    UFC 282 Shuffle! ‘OSP’ Loses Opponent, Ponzi Lands Replacement

    145 lbs.: T.J. Brown vs. Erik Silva

    T.J. Brown (16-9) struggled out of the UFC gate with two straight losses, but managed to bounce back with victories over Kai Kamaka III. The winning streak wound up stopping there courtesy of Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, who out-grappled Brown to a unanimous decision win in June 2022.
    “Downtown” has scored nine submissions and four knockouts as a professional.
    Erik Silva (9-1) rode a seven-fight winning streak into Contender Series, where he squared off with 3-0 Anvar Baynazarov. Silva needed just 92 seconds to pound the Uzbek out and punch his ticket to the Octagon.
    “King” faces a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.
    I’m firm in the belief that in terms of pure skill, Brown has what it takes to be a noteworthy UFC Featherweight. There’s just something missing; the iffy chin is a known quantity, of course, but his striking and grappling ability should have carried him past Nuerdanbieke.
    That defeat in particular has me questioning his chances. Though Silva is mostly untested after a string of quick finishes and doesn’t appear to have a huge amount of depth to his game, Brown proved unable to deal with a similarly grappling-heavy approach against Nuerdanbieke. I like Silva to come out aggressive, get his takedowns going, and ultimately club Brown into submission.
    Prediction: Silva via first round technical knockout
    Related
    UFC 282 Referee, Judging Assignments Revealed

    125 lbs.: Vinicius Salvador vs. Daniel Da Silva

    After a get-well win on the Brazilian circuit to shake the rust from a 16-month layoff, Vinicius Salvador (14-4) entered Contender Series as a two-to-one underdog against Shannon Ross. Undaunted, he scored multiple knockdowns en route to a violent second-round finish that earned him a UFC contract.
    All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, 13 of them via knockout.
    Daniel Da Silva (11-4) put an injury defeat behind him to score three consecutive first-round finishes. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, suffering three consecutive stoppage losses inside of two rounds.
    He stands one inch shorter than Salvador at 5’6.”
    Speaking of people who really should be doing better than they are, it’s been surreal to watch someone with Da Silva’s obvious talent constantly find ways to lose. Salvador is slow, incredibly easy to hit, and has a history of getting overwhelmed on the mat, so by all rights he should be easy pickings for an explosive finisher like “Miojo.” With the way he choked against Francisco Figueiredo and Victor Altamirano, though, it seems inevitable that he’ll repeat Ross’s folly and walk right into one of “Fenomeno’s” sledgehammer hooks.
    If he’s firing on all cylinders, Da Silva will kick this guy’s head clean off his shoulders. I’m just past expecting that from him. Salvador clubs him unconscious within the first five minutes.
    Prediction: Salvador via first round knockout
    Related
    New Poster Revealed For UFC 282 PPV Event

    135 lbs.: Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow (6-0)

    Cameron Saaiman (6-0) — an understudy of UFC Middleweight contender, Dricus Du Plessis — claimed EFC Bantamweight gold in his fifth pro fight. This led him to Contender Series, where he knocked Josh Wang-Kim out cold and secured himself a UFC contract.
    That EFC title win was his sole trip to the judges as a professional, as he’s knocked out four and submitted one.
    Steven Koslow (6-0) won 10 straight as an amateur en route to a 2019 pro debut. He’s yet to see the second round in the paid ranks, submitting all six of his opponents in 4:05 or less.
    He replaces Ronnie Lawrence on less than two weeks’ notice.
    Full disclosure: all of Koslow’s publicly viewable MMA fights since 2019 were hidden behind a $24.99/fight paywall on FITE. The data I’m working from is old as hell, so be sure to keep that in mind.
    From what I have managed to see, Koslow is a very skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu player out of 10th Planet, which should give him the means to exploit one of Saaiman’s more notable weaknesses. He’ll have to deal with Saaiman’s pressure, power, and gas tank, though; between his lack of experience in the later rounds and limited strength of schedule, I’m not hugely confident in his ability to do so. Expect him to wrestle his way to a great start before Saaiman gets his footing, forces him into an uncomfortably high pace, and polishes him off in the latter half of the fight.
    Prediction: Saaiman via second round technical knockout


    265 lbs.: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus

    Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-4) smashed his way into UFC contention with four consecutive knockout victories, including a face-shredding finish of Alistair Overeem in the final seconds of their main event. “Bigi Boy” is just 2-4 since, including a knockout loss to Alexander Volkov his last time out.
    All but one of his professional wins have come by knockout.
    Chris Daukaus (12-5), likewise, emerged as a Heavyweight to watch by knocking out his first four Octagon opponents. This earned him consecutive main events against Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes, who handed Daukaus his first losses since 2019.
    He stands one inch taller than Rozenstruik, but gives up two inches of reach.
    This could either be extremely short and incredibly entertaining or an absolute slog. Ideally, they’ll come out with chips on their shoulders and slug it out until someone goes to sleep. Pessimistically, their recent knockout losses will leave them timid and unwilling to engage.
    Honestly, I feel like I favor Rozenstruik in both scenarios. While he’s a lot slower than Daukaus and doesn’t put his combinations together quite as smoothly, I’d peg him as the bigger one-shot puncher and definitely the more experienced in long, boring staring contests. Here’s hoping it’s a “smash action figures together” sort of fight that ends in Rozenstruik sleeping him with a counter.
    Prediction: Rozenstruik via first round knockout
    Related
    Lawler Pulled From UFC 282

    135 lbs.: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin

    Raul Rosas Jr. (6-0) went undefeated (2-0) with two first-round finishes as an amateur before stopping his first five professional opponents. This set up a historic Contender Series clash with Mando Gutierrez, resulting in Rosas’ first decision victory and a UFC contract.
    He’s submitted four professional foes and knocked out one other.
    Two fights after an unsuccessful Contender Series bid, Jay Perrin (10-6) choked out Josh Smith to claim the CES Bantamweight title. He’s still chasing his first UFC finish, having fallen to Mario Bautista and Aoriqileng in back-to-back fights.
    He’ll enjoy a two-inch reach advantage despite being the shorter of the pair by the same margin.
    While we’ve seen our fair share of wunderkinds flame out in the Octagon, Rosas definitely has potential, largely thanks to his excellent takedown game. He just might have bitten off more than he could chew here, unfortunately, as Perrin’s poor UFC record belies a very solid and well-rounded game. Perrin is unquestionably the better boxer of the two, as seen with the late beating he put on Aoriqileng, and he’s not a slouch in the wrestling department.
    It’ll likely be maturity that settles this. Rosas is so frantic in his guard passing and submission attempts that he can sacrifice tightness, allowing seasoned opponents to wriggle out of bad positions or take him down in return. Between how hittable he is on the feet and how mentally tough Perrin is, I like the latter to weather some rough spots, rack up top control, and land enough heavy punches standing to pull the upset.
    Prediction: Perrin via unanimous decision
    Related
    New Poster Revealed For UFC 282 PPV Event

    185 lbs.: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula

    A head kick finish of Brad Tavares marked the fourth consecutive UFC win for Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3), putting him on the brink of title contention at an incredible pace. He now finds himself winless since 2019 courtesy of dangerous contenders Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson and Nassourdine Imavov.
    He fights for the first time in 13 months.
    Dalcha Lungiambula (11-5) opened his UFC career 2-1, a loss to top contender Magomed Ankalaev sandwiched between victories over Dequan Townsend and Markus Perez. “Champion” enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a three-fight skid, among them a knockout loss to Punahele Soriano last time out.
    He stands six inches shorter than Shahbazyan, but will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage.
    I genuinely think Shahbazyan still has a lot of potential. Losing to killers like Brunson, Hermansson and Imavov do not a bust make. On the contrary, he’s still just 25 years old and likely ironing out all the bad habits Tarverdyan baked into him.
    The tools are there for a genuine contender.
    If he can’t get past Lungiambula, though, it’s time to throw in the towel. “Champion” has never quite managed to synthesize his grappling skills, punching power and physical gifts into a cohesive offense. So long as Shahbazyan can avoid his wild kill swings, the former will have a considerable edge on the feet thanks to his versatility. Plus, even if Lungiambula manages to get his takedowns going, he’s so ineffective on top that Shahbazyan should be able to wriggle free and get back to work. Shahbazyan cracks him with something ugly early in the second.
    Prediction: Shahbazyan via second round technical knockout
    Related
    Get Ready For ‘Vegas Edmen’ At UFC 282

    185 lbs.: Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley

    Chris Curtis (29-9) authored one of UFC’s most impressive Cinderella stories, rattling off three straight wins over lethal contenders. His victories set up a clash with Jack Hermansson, who used constant lateral movement and high volume to flummox “The Action Man” and snap his eight-fight win streak.
    He gives up one inch of reach to “New Mansa.”
    A torrid 5-1 run — highlighted by an all-time-great knockout of Impa Kasanganay — established Joaquin Buckley (15-5) as a genuine threat at 185 pounds. Nassourdine Imavov proved too stiff a test, however, out-warring Buckley to claim a unanimous decision in Paris.
    All 11 of his pro stoppages have come by knockout.
    Curtis’ first three UFC appearances showed that if you mix it up with him inside, his combination of power, durability, and body punching will inevitably break you down. What the Hermansson fight showed is that he can’t really get that kind of fight unless his opponents do it for him. His cage cutting was abysmal and he never seemed to realize that you’re allowed to kick people in the legs.
    Buckley’s speed and mobility are such that he can hypothetically keep Curtis out of the pocket indefinitely, but his tendency to charge headlong into the fire could play right into “The Action Man’s” hands. It’s an incredibly tight match up that seems like it’ll come down to the wire. In the end, after chewing on it for a while, I think Curtis’ body work and toughness should edge it out and allow him to take over down the stretch.
    Prediction: Curtis via split decision




  14. #14
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Main card -

    205 lbs.: Jan Blachowicz (29-9) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (18-1)
    Even in retrospect, Blachowicz’s rise to the top is surreal. He never really stopped doing what led him to a 2-4 UFC start: throwing big single kicks and marching forward with awkward, clubbing hooks. It seemed like there were a boatload of technical striking fixes standing between him and contention, but instead he just tightened up his cardio and takedown defense and suddenly he was the menace we thought he’d be when he kicked Ilir Latifi in half.
    Is that enough to get him past Ankalaev, though?
    Strange as it is to say about a man who’s won nine straight in the Octagon, I honestly expected more out of Ankalaev. He looked like an absolute killer during his time on the Russian scene, showing off fearsome kickboxing and some of the nastiest ground-and-pound you’re likely to see. We’ve seen bits and pieces of those things since, but hidden beneath a conservative approach that’s done little to endear him to fans of the ol’ ultraviolence.
    Seems like it’ll work out for him here, though. Blachowicz is too powerful and durable to get overwhelmed in a firefight, meaning a patient, potshotting approach that takes advantage of the Pole’s ingrained rough edges is the right way to go about it on the feet. If Blachowicz tries to force the issue, Ankalaev is more than happy to lean on his wrestling, which Blachowicz hasn’t done all that great a job of dealing with lately.
    Not saying Blachowicz can’t outwork him, but Ankalaev’s ability to take the fight where he wants it figures to blunt any momentum he gets going. Plus, Ankalaev’s proven his ability to go five rounds, so Blachowicz can’t bank on a late comeback. While Blachowicz is much more of a live dog than the odds suggest, Ankalaev’s potshots and top control should be enough to carry him through a relatively dull affair.
    Prediction: Ankalaev via unanimous decision

    155 lbs.: Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (19-3) vs. Jared “Flash” Gordon (19-5)

    Way back when I broke down Pimblett ahead of his UFC debut last year, I said that he was nowhere near as good a nail as he was a hammer. Nad Narimani and Soren Bak, the last two men to beat him and the only ones to do so since 2013, made him look worryingly mortal through sheer aggression. The sneaky submissions and power shots just weren’t enough to keep sufficiently skilled and determined fighters from overwhelming him.
    Three fights into his UFC career, I stand by my assessment. All three of the men he’s beaten gave him some early trouble by keeping him on the back foot, Luigi Vendramini and Kazula Vargas with strikes and Jordan Leavitt with takedowns. Though “The Baddy” was able to turn the tides each time, I’m not confident in his chances here. Gordon’s a more complete fighter than any of them, a high-output pressure machine with some wrestling chops to back it up.
    There’s a reason Gordon’s still the underdog, of course; he’s had his chin checked more than once and his recent loss to Grant Dawson showed that he can be out-muscled. I just think he’s the type of fighter Pimblett struggles against, and “Flash’s” upset of another grappling ace in Joe Solecki should give him plenty of confidence.
    Part of Pimblett’s charm is that he’s vulnerable, that he has to dig deep to score those big crowd-pleasing finishes. I know for certain he’ll fight his ass off, but Gordon’s just too aggressive and too seasoned. He outworks Pimblett to an upset decision.
    Prediction: Gordon via unanimous decision

    180 lbs.: Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-6) vs. Alex “The Great White” Morono (22-7)

    I feel like I’m still locked in 2017 when I watch Morono. I instinctively superimpose the unremarkable slugger of those days over the fringe contender of today, like my brain can’t process the concept of “Alex Morono, Genuinely Good Fighter.” Those ugly swings are still there, but he’s built a cohesive and effective striking attack around them, improving without losing what made him fun and effective in the first place.
    But man, I just don’t think this will end well for him.
    Under ideal circumstances, he’d have a solid shot. Age and injury have stolen much of Ponzinibbio’s former venom, and a peak Morono might just be able to stay on the outside and pepper him to a decision win. He’s pulled off these sorts of upsets before, including last out against another murderous puncher in Matt Semelsberger.
    Problem is, “peak Morono” isn’t showing up on a few day’s notice with a 10-pound weight allowance baked in. He could still pull it off against an older, more weathered veteran, but it’s worth remembering that Ponzinibbio’s recent losses were split decisions against beasts in Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira. A dialed-in Ponzinibbio is still a problem for most of the division, Morono absolutely included.
    Morono still can’t wrestle well enough to take Ponzinibbio out of his comfort zone, and even if he can survive a slow start, Ponzinibbio carries his power late. Odds are “The Argentine Dagger” gets his first finish since 2018 before Morono shakes the rust.
    Prediction: Ponzinibbio via first-round TKO

    185 lbs.: Darren “The Gorilla” Till (18-4-1) vs. Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis (17-2)

    In the interest of full disclosure, I’m rooting for Du Plessis with all my heart.
    That’s not out of any antipathy towards Till, to be clear; he’s a fine fighter who’s faced a ton of adversity in his career and kept on trucking. The closest thing to ill will I have is a speck of residual grumpiness over the judging when he fought Stephen Thompson.
    I just love watching fighters succeed with approaches that by all rights should not work. Du Plessis fights like he’s piloted by Twitch chat and yet here he is, a genuine contender in the world’s largest fight promotion. I want to see how high he can fly.
    That’s the emotional reason I’m picking “Stillknocks.” The technical reason is that he won’t give Till the fight he wants. “The Gorilla” is at his best when he can slow the pace and sharpshoot at a distance, which is remarkably hard to do when there’s a wired-up South African berserker trying to tear your head off. This is especially true when said wired-up South African berserker has a height and reach advantage and you’re coming off a truly horrendous streak of injuries.
    In Till’s defense, he’s only lost to top-notch fighters whom I’d rate above Du Plessis. Between the stylistic clash and the wear-and-tear, though, I like Du Plessis to posterize him sometime in the first.
    Prediction: Du Plessis via first-round TKO

    145 lbs.: Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0) vs. Ilia “El Matador” Topuria (12-0)

    This is a matchup so perfect it feels weird that it’s happening at all. Something really should have gone wrong at some point, or they should have been matched against different opponents on the same card. Things aren’t supposed to work out this smoothly in combat sports; I’m terrified we’re going to somehow end up with a snoozefest to compensate, though I’m not sure that’s actually possible considering the way these two fight.
    It’ll be a car crash, and for my money, Topuria has more horsepower. Beyond the monstrous power and sheer strength at his disposal, he’s unique among Mitchell’s Octagon opponents in that he has the wrestling pedigree and scrambling skills to hold his own in “Thug Nasty’s” world. I actually wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see him put Mitchell on his back, as the last two men who tried doing so, Bobby Moffett and Tyler Diamond, did so on multiple occasions back in the day.
    Even if Topuria can’t dominate the wrestling, he’s good enough to keep it on the feet, where his power boxing is far more dangerous than Mitchell’s still-developing standup.
    The real question is how Topuria’s body will hold up. That weight cut can’t be getting any easier for him, and if his conditioning isn’t up to snuff, Mitchell’s going to put him through hell. Still, I’m optimistic enough that Topuria can shrug off a few early shots, get Mitchell to commit to some striking exchanges, and take his head off from there.
    Prediction: Topuria via first-round knockout

  15. #15
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
    I'm betting on this safe parlay on Paddy and Magomed.
    How is this safe dude? Paddy is all but safe imho.

  16. #16
    hankcream
    hankcream's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-30-10
    Posts: 2,040
    Betpoints: 1760

    I'd love to see Jan calf & body kick Ankalaev into submission but not going to bet it. It's going to suck if we have 3 UFC champions who can't speak a word of English, the UFC should pay these dopes in Rubbles or Reals until they learn to speak the language.

  17. #17
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    I'd love to see Jan calf & body kick Ankalaev into submission but not going to bet it. It's going to suck if we have 3 UFC champions who can't speak a word of English, the UFC should pay these dopes in Rubbles or Reals until they learn to speak the language.
    Lol....

  18. #18
    GunShard
    Invest In Ethereum And Bitcoin
    GunShard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 9,810
    Betpoints: 36

    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    How is this safe dude? Paddy is all but safe imho.
    Good point. His inexperience in the UFC is a factor.

  19. #19
    hankcream
    hankcream's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-30-10
    Posts: 2,040
    Betpoints: 1760

    Probably the safest bet of the year:
    Rozenstruik -170 or inside the distance- 130

    Unless Officer Daukaus brings a taser, there’s no way in hell he’s going to be able to stop a big powerful black man from knocking his pudgy ass out

  20. #20
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    I'd love to see Jan calf & body kick Ankalaev into submission but not going to bet it. It's going to suck if we have 3 UFC champions who can't speak a word of English, the UFC should pay these dopes in Rubbles or Reals until they learn to speak the language.
    Islam's English is alright. Gets the job done. It's certainly better than Paddy or Till.

    At the end of the day these guys punch and kick people for a living. So they're not the brightest stars in the sky to begin with.

    I'm more surprised by guys like Aldo who've been in the game for ages and still can't speak English.

  21. #21
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    It's almost time, good luck everyone. I'm liking a bunch of early dogs with this event. Favorites in the Main card fights. Let's do this!

  22. #22
    Thor4140
    Thor4140's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-09-08
    Posts: 21,565
    Betpoints: 1497

    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Probably the safest bet of the year:
    Rozenstruik -170 or inside the distance- 130

    Unless Officer Daukaus brings a taser, there’s no way in hell he’s going to be able to stop a big powerful black man from knocking his pudgy ass out

    Daukas has a great ground game. My buddy trains with both the brothers. You can't drill it in these brothers heads to use their strengths. Kyle in no way should have been fighting his last fight but ya can't tell these guys anything. I ask my buddy is this fuker gonna finally use his jujitz this fight cause Rozen will look like a turtle not being able to get up. My buddy says "well they are fighters" Meaning most likely no lol.

  23. #23
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Black on black crime in this next fight. Going with Chris Curtis..

  24. #24
    RussianMike
    RussianMike's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-10
    Posts: 281
    Betpoints: 769

    [QUOTE=JIBBBY;31076689]Main card -

    The closest thing to ill will I have is a speck of residual grumpiness over the judging when he fought Stephen Thompson.


    To be fair, that fight was in England, right? So should have been fully expected even by Thompson. It's not as if he didn't grow up watching those refs penetrate over anybody stupid enough to travel over there to fight Michael Bisping.

  25. #25
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Black on black crime in this next fight. Going with Chris Curtis..
    That works, slept him..

  26. #26
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    [QUOTE=RussianMike;31078388]
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Main card -

    The closest thing to ill will I have is a speck of residual grumpiness over the judging when he fought Stephen Thompson.


    To be fair, that fight was in England, right? So should have been fully expected even by Thompson. It's not as if he didn't grow up watching those refs penetrate over anybody stupid enough to travel over there to fight Michael Bisping.
    All I know is Paddy and Till have big mouths. Fading Till. I do think Paddy gets the win though. Brits have loud mouths in the UFC!

  27. #27
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Wasn't looking good for Curtis though. But that one punch changed it all.

  28. #28
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Trying Edmen ITD in this next one.
    Points Awarded:

    JC2008 gave JIBBBY 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  29. #29
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Wasn't looking good for Curtis though. But that one punch changed it all.
    Both big hard hitting punchers and all it takes is one clean one on the chin with those two.. Agreed though Curtis was getting out worked and touched up a bit in that fight until he got the KO..

  30. #30
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Trying Edmen ITD in this next one.
    Have him parlayed. He needs to win a fight at some point.
    Points Awarded:

    JIBBBY gave Allure 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  31. #31
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Like I said a few days ago. They gave him a trash can to rebound. Glad I won but Shahbazyan still sucks.

  32. #32
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Trying Edmen ITD in this next one.
    That works next

    Fading Daukaus next. I think he gets knocked out like his brother did in his last fight..

  33. #33
    hankcream
    hankcream's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-30-10
    Posts: 2,040
    Betpoints: 1760

    Going balls to the wall on the Liverpool parlay:
    $400 Till & Paddy +250

  34. #34
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 77,856
    Betpoints: 8758

    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Going balls to the wall on the Liverpool parlay:
    $400 Till & Paddy +250
    Becareful with Till. Overrated and his chin can be tapped.

  35. #35
    Allure
    Allure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-10
    Posts: 7,383
    Betpoints: 13351

    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Going balls to the wall on the Liverpool parlay:
    $400 Till & Paddy +250
    Are you mad LAD???

1234 Last
Top