[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Jared Cannonier vs. Sean Strickland
Damir Ismagulov vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa
Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa
Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Cody Brundage

ESPN+ 4:00 pm
Cory McKenna vs Cheyanne Vlismas
Jake Matthews vs. Matt Semelsberger
Julian Marquez vs. Deron Winn
Saidyokub Kakhramonov vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Rafa Garcia vs. Hayisaer Maheshate
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Bryan Battle
David Dvorak vs. Manel Kape
Sergey Morozov vs. Journey Newson

[hankcream]

This card is stacked with great fights - better than last weeks PPV card imo.
early leans:
Kape, Garcia, Battle, Winn, Tsarukyan

[povis]

Very solid fight night card co-main is great.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




155 lbs.: Rafa Garcia vs. Maheshate

Rafa Garcia (14-3) — a former Combate champion — struggled his way to a winless (0-2) UFC start. “Gifted” evened things up with decisions over Natan Levy and Jesse Ronson, but proved unable to topple Drakkar Klose on short notice.
His nine professional stoppages include eight via submission.
Maheshate (9-1) defied nearly 5:1 odds to upset Achilles Estremadura on Contender Series and walk away with a UFC contract. His Octagon debut was even more impressive, flattening Steve Garcia just 64 seconds into the first round.
He stands five inches taller than Garcia at 6’0.”
While it’s clear at this point that Garcia peaks below the Lightweight elite, he’s a significant step up for Maheshate. The 23-year-old has never met a wrestler of this caliber, especially not one with the five-round experience to test his takedown defense all night. Maheshate may be a physical beast, but I’m not convinced he’s prepared for this sort of grind.
To his credit, Maheshate is a very effective counter-puncher, and Garcia’s aggression should give the former plenty of opportunities to land that nasty right down the pipe. Durability has never been among Garcia’s failings, though, so expect him to steadily break down the younger man with relentless wrestling en route to a late finish.
Prediction: Garcia via third round submission
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170 lbs.: Bryan Battle vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

Bryan Battle (8-1) capped off his successful The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) run by choking out late replacement GIlbert Urbina in the finals. Subsequent efforts have seen him defeat another castmate in Tresean Gore and crush Takashi Sato with a 44-second head kick six months later.
He steps in for Michael Morales on two weeks’ notice.
A 55-second knockout of Eric Spicely extended Rinat Fakhretdinov’s (20-2) win streak to 14 and caught Dana White’s eye, resulting in a UFC contract. He would not make his debut for another 16.5 months, at which point he out-classed Andreas Michailidis in June 2022.
He’s ended 17 professional fights inside the distance, 11 via knockout.
I’ll admit to being not terribly high on Fakhretdinov. That’s because while he has some power, he’s often content to be an uninspiring lay-and-pray artist. As “Pooh Bear” showed against Andre Petroski, that’s an approach he can deal with, and I like his mobile, high-volume striking style to out-class Fakhretdinov’s more basic offense.
Fakhretdinov is admittedly a solid-enough wrestler to potentially grind out Battle, but he’s often so passive on top that he’ll struggle to offset the good work Battle does on the feet. In the end, Battle stays long and peppers his way to victory.
Prediction: Battle via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: David Dvorak vs. Manel Kape

Consecutive wins over Bruno Silva, Jordan Espinosa and Juancamilo Ronderos put Poland’s David Dvorak (20-4) on the brink of contention. The final step wound up a bit too treacherous, however, as Matheus Nicolau ended his win streak at 16.
His finishes include eight by knockout and another eight by submission.
Manel Kape’s (17-6) leap into the Flyweight deep end failed to produce immediate results, dropping narrow decisions to top contenders Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau. A subsequent uptick in aggression seemed to be just what the doctor ordered, resulting in first-round knockouts of Ode Obsourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
“Starboy” fights for the first time in 12 months, having failed a drug test and seen subsequent foe Rogerio Bontorin botch his weight cut.
I still believe Dvorak is a very skilled fighter, a dangerous boxer with surprisingly stout defensive grappling to back it up. If Kape comes out flat again, Dvorak is more than capable of sharpshooting his way to a decision even if he can’t match Kape’s ridiculous athleticism.
“Undertaker” does have one key issue, though: nasty as he is, he can be caught early. Both Silva and Nicolau hurt him bad before he could find his footing, and considering Kape’s recent penchant for quick destruction, that’s a bad sign. While we’re in for a great stand up battle if things get past the first, odds are Kape cuts it off before it can develop properly.
Prediction: Kape via first round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Sergey Morozov vs. Journey Newson

Back in 2019, Sergey Morozov (18-5) defeated Josh Rettinghouse to avenge a knockout defeat, defend his M-1 Bantamweight title, and secure himself a UFC berth. He’s alternated losses and wins in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, most recently out-dueling Raulian Paiva in June 2022.
His 11 stoppage wins include eight by knockout.
Journey Newson (10-3) opened his UFC career 0-2 (1 NC), a knockout win over Domingo Pilarte overturned because of a failed drug test. This led to almost 20 months on the sidelines, followed by an upset decision over Fernie Garcia upon his return.
He’s the shorter of the two by one inch, but will enjoy a slight reach advantage.
Not to oversimplify things, but Morozov just seems to be better everywhere. His stand up is much more technically sound than Newson’s scattershot approach and he’s the stronger wrestler of the two. Even if you think highly of Newson’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree, his bottom game in no way holds up to Morozov’s top game.
Though they’re both skilled in enough areas to keep Morozov from absolutely dominating, the difference in class should become clear before too long. In short, his strong boxing and takedown skills carry him to a wide victory.
Prediction: Morozov via unanimous decision


115 lbs.: Cheyanne Vlismas vs. Cory McKenna

A dominant Contender Series victory over Hilarie Rose left Cheyanne Vlismas (7-2) with plenty of hype behind her as she entered the Octagon, only to suffer a humiliating decision loss to Montserrat Ruiz in her debut. A 60-second “Performance of the Night” knockout of Gloria de Paula got her back into the win column, and she followed up with a unanimous decision over Mallory Martin.
She’ll enjoy a five-inch reach advantage.
Cory McKenna (7-2) followed her own Contender Series victory over Vanessa Demopoulos by edging out Kay Hansen in her first UFC appearance. A split decision loss to Elise Reed followed, though she secured her first Octagon finish soon after by stopping Miranda Granger via Von Flue choke.
“Poppins” has knocked out and submitted two professional foes apiece.
She may have embarrassed herself on multiple occasions, but Vlismas is a genuinely solid Strawweight with the right toolbox to beat McKenna. She’s more than skilled enough on the feet to maximize her five-inch reach advantage and shut down a determined takedown artist in Martin last time out. With how badly McKenna struggled to control Elise Reed — who got murked on the mat by Sam Hughes not long after — she’ll have all sorts of issues trying to corral “The Warrior Princess.”
This is assuming that McKenna is still the same fighter we saw last time, of course. She’s very young and fighting out of a quality camp in Team Alpha Male, a combination that tends toward explosive growth. Just based on what we’ve seen so far, though, I like Vlismas to take her apart on the feet.
Prediction: Vlismas via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Jake Matthews vs. Matthew Semelsberger

A red-hot UFC start gave way to a 2-3 skid for Jake Matthews (18-5), prompting a move from 155 to 170 pounds. It’s paid dividends, as he sits at 7-2 since and is coming off a bonus-winning knockout of Andre Fialho.
He gives up two inches of height and reach to “Semi the Jedi.”
Matthew Semelsberger (10-4) smashed his way to a 4-1 UFC start, the lone loss a unanimous decision to Khaos Williams. This set up a clash with Alex Morono, who survived a flush flying knee to hand Semelsberger his second defeat in four fights.
Six of his seven professional stoppage wins have come by knockout.
It’s past time I give Matthews credit for how much he’s developed. There was a time when he largely skated by on his size and strength, but he’s blossomed into a versatile and highly effective mixed martial artist. The current iteration of him should dispatch Semelsberger without too much issue. As fond as I am of watching Semelsberger’s right hand launch people’s heads into the lower atmosphere, he showed worrying grappling deficiencies against A.J. Fletcher and struggled badly to adapt to both Williams and Morono’s striking.
Semelsberger’s puncher’s chance is also neutered by the fact that Matthews hasn’t been dropped since 2015, and that’s despite fighting the likes of Fialho and Li Jingliang. In the end, Matthews mixes his strikes and takedowns to either a late finish or one-sided decision.
Prediction: Matthews via second round submission
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185 lbs.: Julian Marquez vs. Deron Winn

After punching his UFC ticket with a decision win over Tom Lawler, Deron Winn (7-3) started his Octagon career with a “Fight of the Night”-winning decision over Eric Spicely at UFC Greenville. He’s since gone 1-3, including a horrible beating courtesy of Phil Hawes last time out.
He stands six inches shorter than Julian Marquez (9-3) and gives up two inches of reach.
“The Cuban Missile Crisis” shocked Phil Hawes on Contender Series to secure a UFC contract, then stopped three of his first four Octagon opponents while securing as many post-fight bonuses. A 14-month layoff followed, which ended in June 2022 when Gregory Rodrigues became the first man to stop Marquez.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, five of them via knockout.
I fully expect Winn to do alright for himself in the early going. Marquez has never been a particularly stout defensive wrestler and his arms are nearly as stubby as Winn’s, so Winn should find it easier than usual to get inside and get his takedowns going.
Thing is, Winn slows down as fights progress and Marquez absolutely does not. We’ve seen Marquez get into early pinches before, only to claw his way back through sheer will, volume, and power. It’s going to get harder and harder to keep Marquez on his back as the fight progresses and Winn’s gas tank starts to wane, and once the takedown is off the table, Marquez’s knack for violence will take over in a hurry. So long as that loss to “Robocop” didn’t shatter his confidence, Marquez weathers a rough first round to batter Winn into submission and ultimately find his neck.
Prediction: Marquez via third round submission
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135 lbs.: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Said Nurmagomedov (16-2) claimed victory in three of his first four UFC bouts before spending 15 months on the sidelines. He made up for lost time with a 47-second guillotine finish of Cody Stamann, then followed up by cruising past Douglas Silva de Andrade six months later.
His eight professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Five months after winning the CFFC Bantamweight title, Saidyokub Kakhramonov (10-2) stepped up on short notice to choke out Trevin Giles in his UFC debut. Eleven months later, he made it 2-0 in the Octagon with a one-sided decision over Contender Series graduate Ronnie Lawrence.
He faces a half-inch reach disadvantage.
This is an opportunity for Nurmagomedov to exorcise some demons. His only UFC loss came against Raoni Barcelos, and Nurmagomedov had taken full control of the fight before an errant spinning back kick allowed Barcelos to take him down and ride out the pivotal third round. The relentless Kakhramonov represents a similar threat— he’s nowhere near the striker Barcelos is, but he’s an incredibly strong takedown artist with a great gas tank.
I’m leaning toward Kakhramonov, but just barely. He’s tough and aggressive enough to jam Nurmagomedov’s kicks and turn it into the sort of slog where the latter’s dynamism is less of a factor. If Nurmagomedov can get past him, though, he’s ready for a Top 10-ranked fighter.
Prediction: Kakhramonov via split decision

[JIBBBY]

Main Card write ups -


Flyweight: Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa

Best Win for Albazi? Zhalgas Zhumagulov For Costa? Andres Luna Martinetti
Current Streak: Albazi has started his UFC career 3-0, whereas Martinetti debuts on a seven-fight win streak
X-Factor: Costa is a short-notice replacement
How these two match up: A pair of strong grapplers collide.
Albazi has proven himself really slick in a short time. He’s a physical talent with strong wrestling, but he’s not content to just hold his opponents. “The Prince” has a very strong jiu-jitsu game, and he’s actually a highly technical striker as well. Already, he’s advanced into the Flyweight Top 10.
Costa certainly shares some traits with Albazi. He’s a very strong wrestler in his own right, a quality submission fighter, and has knockout power in his hands. A “Contenders Series” veteran and regional champion in Brazil, Costa deserves his spot on the roster regardless of this late opportunity.
Unfortunately for “Nono,” Albazi is a serious ask without a full camp. Costa’s grappling style means that he’ll be engaging Albazi on his strongest area, whether that’s a good idea or not. From a distance, Albazi appears to be the slightly superior technical wrestler, but even if that’s not the case, it’s going to be tough to keep up with him for three rounds.
Defeating a wrestler the quality of Albazi requires excellent preparation, and Costa just didn’t have that opportunity here. Barring a flying knee or something similar, the Brazilian ends up stuck on bottom eventually.
Prediction: Albazi via decision
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---

Featherweight: Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa

Best Win for Caceres? Sergio Pettis For Erosa? Hakeem Dawodu
Current Streak: Caceres came up short last time out, whereas Erosa has won three straight
X-Factor: Both veterans have hit their stride in the last year or two
How these two match up: I just don’t see how this could be anything less than a fun fight.
Caceres has his own unique flair. He definitely fights more like a Karate guy than anything else, but even so, Caceres has funky kicks and tricky setups that you won’t see from someone like Stephen Thompson. He’s also an underrated grappler, a serious submission threat if able to take the back.
He fights in a wildly different manner, but Erosa also fulfills the role of lanky, tricky, and tough veteran. His third UFC stint has proven his most successful by a country mile, as Erosa has picked up major confidence en route to winning five of six. In particular, he’s pretty exceptional at hurting an opponent and then capitalizing by jumping on the neck.
The path to defeating Julian Erosa is typically to hit him very hard. Erosa fights with his hands low, trusting his range control and head movement to keep him safe. It often works to great effect, but faster men have also found his chin and made him pay — that’s the double-edged sword of his fighting style.
Fortunately for “Juicy J,” Caceres just isn’t a huge knockout threat. He’s much more of a volume fighter, even as he’s settled into the Featherweight division and put on some size. Likely, Erosa can take his opponent’s shots without major issue, and if that’s the case, Erosa’s heavy counter punching game is likely to be more punishing.
Expect some back-and-forth exchanges and scrambles, but Erosa does enough to sway the judges.
Prediction: Erosa via decision
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Lightweight: Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green

Best Win for Dober? Terrance McKinney For Green? Josh Thomson
Current Streak: Dober has won two in a row, whereas Green came up short in a last-second booking vs. Islam Makhachev in his last appearance
X-Factor: Green is the faster man
How these two match up: Two longtime Lightweight veterans will throw down.
Dober has come a long way since his UFC debut. He’s shored up his defensive wrestling a good deal and evolved from volume striker to genuine knockout artist, and he’s been tough as nails all the while. Green is built from a similarly sturdy material. An exceptional athlete even at 36 years of age, “King” relies primarily on his boxing skills and slick defense to outwork opponents.
The only thing that makes me nervous about this fight is Green’s well-established history of losing close decisions. Dober is a volume striker and pressure fighter, two traits the judges love. Green works off the counter, meaning he has to massively outland opponents in order to convince those idiots that his strikes matter.
Ugh ... Between Green’s range and speed advantages, I do feel like he’ll get the better of most exchanges with Dober, and he has the wrestling edge in his back pocket as well. Ultimately, I’m going to side with Green because I think he’ll win the fight itself, and trying to guess whether the judges get it right is a hopeless endeavor.
Prediction: Green via decision
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---

Middleweight: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Cody Brundage

Best Win for Oleksiejczuk? Gadzhimurad Antigulov For Brundage? Tresean Gore
Current Streak: Oleksiejczuk won his last bout, while Brundage won two in a row
X-Factor: Oleksiejczuk has twice the professional experience of his opponent
How these two match up: Striker vs. wrestler!
Oleksiejczuk can CRACK! The Polish striker has scored 12 wins via knockout, despite being undersized at 205-pounds for much of his career. His takedown defense and conditioning are historic weaknesses, but perhaps his recent drop down to Middleweight will help alleviate those issues.
Brundage is a pretty straightforward wrestler turned fighter. He’s added the necessary skill for baseline UFC success — e.g. a nice overhand right and ability to snatch the neck — but he’s definitely still a developing talent.
Does Brundage have the wrestling to give Oleksiejczuk a headache? Certainly. However, Oleksiejczuk is not a completely inept wrestler, especially when he’s fresh and at the correct weight class. Brundage will have to survive some serious shots in order to last long enough to get his wrestling game going, and that doesn’t seem likely against a sniper like Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Knockout No. 13 is en route.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via knockout

[JC2008]

And the main card predictions from MMA Mania.

https://www.mmamania.com/2022/12/14/...rd-predictions

And BloodyElbow's predictions:

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2022/12/...editorial-news

[JIBBBY]

Decent card overall. I think you gotta go with Strickland at those odds. He's gotta protect that chin though.

[JC2008]

Good luck all! Money coming in on Morozov but how can I not take a stab at Newson sub +2000 (Leo Vegas).

[JIBBBY]

I'm tired of all these Pakistan and Russian wrestling grinders coming into the UFC and going to decision, then they get interviewed after and can't speak a lick of English. This is the new form of lay and pray boring.

Judges shouldn't give them the decision wins. There should be a judging adjustment or else we will be seeing alot of this stale garbage in the future.

[Allure]

Had Morozov in parlays. Good start.

First single play for me is Kakhramonov ML. Yes, fading a mighty Nurmagomedov. I'm not high on Said. Looking at Dober as well. Might go with Cannonier as I feel cutting weight was pretty hard for Strickland, not sure yet let's see.

[JIBBBY]

Had Morozov in parlays. Good start.

First single play for me is Kakhramonov ML. Yes, fading a mighty Nurmagomedov. I'm not high on Said. Looking at Dober as well. Might go with Cannonier as I feel cutting weight was pretty hard for Strickland, not sure yet let's see.

Keep it up!

Battle got man handled in that fight. Geez! Rag dolled and beat up!

[JIBBBY]

Trying Rafa Garcia in this next fight straight.

[Allure]

The more I think about it the more confident I'm in Kakhromonov. Said is not a grappler at all, purely striker at not that great at that. A Nurmagomedov that is not a wrestler, go figure. Let's see.

[Allure]

Jibby who you got in the main fight? Jared or Sean?

[JIBBBY]

Jibby who you got in the main fight? Jared or Sean?

Strickland... More skilled.

[JIBBBY]

Blood bath in this fight! Garcia is gonna need an IV after all this blood loss! Octagon painted red!

[JIBBBY]

Trying Rafa Garcia in this next fight straight.

Cash it! Next..

Trying Kakhramonov straight in this next fight..

[Allure]

Let's go Saidyokub.

[JIBBBY]

Damn it.. He was dominating that fight too. Errrrr!

[Allure]

Jesus Christ....

[Allure]

Brundage soooooo deserved it. What the fukk was that idiot doing, holding onto him not doing literally anything. The knockout felt so good lol.

[JIBBBY]

Brundage soooooo deserved it. What the fukk was that idiot doing, holding onto him not doing literally anything. The knockout felt so good lol.

He looked so relaxed and confident that he got swept and then pounded on.

Put a dominate wrestler on their back and they usually get pounded on.

[JIBBBY]

Oh shit. That shut up Green in a hurry. Dober has the block head and the power, always a threat.

I had Green by decision, wish I hedged with Dober by KO but I didn't. Was thinking about it when placing but didn't pull that trigger..

[Allure]

And Dober wins.

Green way too cocky and not enough power.

Thanks Dober, cash it.

[JIBBBY]

I would have liked to have seen Green really slept and completely passed out if I was gonna lose that bet.

[Allure]

And Makhachev finished both guys like a light walk in the park, which it really was.

[Kermit]

What a KO by Alex. These last 2 fights saved my night. Need a finish by Amir now.

[JIBBBY]

What a KO by Alex. These last 2 fights saved my night. Need a finish by Amir now.

Alex keeps surprising me. I've learned not to fade him.

[Allure]

Alright Abazi ITD ML and ITD cashes. Checking out, with yet another successful event. Wish Kakhromonov didn't crash my perfect night but I'll take it.

Man what a brutally profitable UFC year this has been.

[JIBBBY]

Strickland hits like a bitch and was backing up all fight. Not sure how the judging goes with this?

[JIBBBY]

That judging was funky as shit. Oh well..

[Allure]

Well, jab jab jab without any power leads to a loss.

[JIBBBY]

Well, jab jab jab without any power leads to a loss.

I guess.

Did Strickland even break a sweat in that fight? Dude was so chill during this fight.

I guess he didn't deserve it because he never really went after it. Strickland was point fighting with bitch punches all fight long while backing up.