1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz (August 13, 2022)



    ESPN 7:00 pm ET
    Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
    Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama
    Devin Clark vs. Azamat Murzakanov
    Cynthia Calvillo vs. Nina Nunes
    Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bruno Silva
    Loopy Godinez vs. Angela Hill

    ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
    Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira
    Josh Quinlan vs. Jason Witt
    Yazmin Jauregui vs. Iasmin Lucindo
    Lukasz Brzeski vs. Martin Buday
    Gabriel Benitez vs. Charlie Ontiveros
    Tyson Nam vs. Ode Osbourne
    Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Youssef Zalal



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  2. #2
    JIBBBY
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    Prelim write ups -





    125 lbs.: Ode Osbourne vs. Tyson Nam

    Ode Osbourne (11-4) went from scoring a first-round armbar on Contender Series to suffering a first round submission in his UFC debut opposite Brian Kelleher. “The Jamaican Sensation” has gone onto win three of four, including a bonus-winning, 61-second knockout of Zarrukh Adashev in June 2022.
    His nine professional finishes are split 5/4 between submission and knockouts.
    The Octagon run for Tyson Nam (20-12-1) began with consecutive losses to Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France, only to segue into a pair of vicious knockouts over Zarrukh Adashev and Jerome Rivera. This set up a clash with fellow contender Matt Schnell, who out-worked Nam to a split decision victory.
    He fights for the first time in nearly 19 months.
    We’re 16 years into Nam’s professional career and he’s as binary as ever. Indeed, either he scores a knockout or he lets opponents out-work him to decision wins. He’s made just two successful trips to the judges in the last decade and still refuses to increase his volume. That’s more than a slight problem against the rangy, elusive Osbourne, who’s both far younger than Nam and boasts a five-inch reach advantage. All signs point to Osbourne staying mobile and picking his shots to cruise to victory.
    Nam’s power is admittedly always a threat, and his stout takedown defense should take Osbourne’s wrestling off the table. I just can’t trust him not to let another fight slip away, especially after he failed to put down the historically fragile Schnell. In the end, Osbourne potshots to a comfortable decision.
    Prediction: Osbourne via unanimous decision
    Related
    Up Next! ‘Vera Vs Cruz’ In San Diego!

    135 lbs.: Youssef Zalal vs. Da’Mon Blackshear

    After a highlight-reel flying knee finish under the LFA banner, Youssef Zalal (10-5) burst onto UFC’s scene with three victories in the span of six months. The momentum wasn’t to last, and he’ll look to end a three-fight losing streak come Saturday.
    The bout ends a 14-month layoff.
    After previously failing to claim regional gold against Pat Sabatini and Danny Sabatello, Da’Mon Blackshear (12-4) claimed the CFFC Bantamweight title with an upset submission finish of unbeaten DeAndre Jordan. Six months later, he successfully defended his new hardware by choking out Josh Smith.
    He replaces Cristian Quinonez, who ran into **** issues, on less than two weeks’ notice.
    With the benefit of hindsight, it becomes clear that Zalal’s early success came in large part because of limited opposition. Only one of his three victims remains on UFC’s roster, and while there is zero shame in losing to a monster like Ilia Topuria, he looked downright pedestrian against Seung Woo Choi and Sean Woodson.
    Even if he’s nowhere near what we thought he was, though, this is very winnable. Blackshear has struggled badly with persistent takedown artists in the past and is middling on the feet, giving Zalal various avenues to victory. If the drop in weight doesn’t fry Zalal, he returns to the win column with a grinding performance.
    Prediction: Zalal via unanimous decision
    Related
    New Rankings! Flamin’ Hot ‘Chito’ Cracks Top 5

    135 lbs.: Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira

    Ariane Lipski (14-7) brought the KSW Flyweight title into the Octagon, only to drop four of her first six in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion. She got back on track in Sept. 2021, dropping newcomer Mandy Bohm twice en route to a decision victory.
    She was slated to face “Zombie Girl” at UFC Vegas 59 last weekend, but was forced out after missing weight and being declared medically unfit to compete.
    Priscila Cachoeira (11-4) stumbled her way to a winless (0-3) UFC start, most notably suffering a brutal stoppage loss to Valentina Shevchenko in her promotional debut. Undaunted, she went on to win three of her next four, though her recent decision over Ji Yeon Kim is considered one of the year’s bigger robberies.
    All six of her stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
    If both women enter the Octagon at their best, Lipski demolishes Cachoeira. That’s because Cachoeira’s usual approach of absorbing triple-digit significant strikes is a death sentence against a puncher as fast and powerful as the “Queen of Violence,” who’s got the gas tank to avoid a rope-a-dope comeback. Plus, she can always make it easier on herself by just taking down Cachoeira if things get hairy.
    The concern is that Lipski reportedly struggled with COVID throughout camp and badly flubbed her weight cut just a few days ago. That sounds like an issue that can’t be resolved in a week’s time, even with a more generous weight allowance. Still, there’s too much going Lipski’s way for me to change my pick. In short, she brutalizes Cachoeira early.
    Prediction: Lipski via first round technical knockout
    Related
    UFC San Diego Poster Drops For ‘Vera Vs Cruz’

    170 lbs.: Jason Witt vs. Josh Quinlan

    These two were supposed to fight last weekend before Quinlan failed a drug test, so I might as well re-use what I already wrote ...
    Jason Witt (19-8) scored the biggest win of his career with a “Fight of the Night”-winning decision over Bryan Barberena that upped the former’s UFC record to 2-2. Unfortunately, “The Vanilla Gorilla” got knocked right back under .500 soon after, falling to a lengthy barrage of punches from Philip Rowe in Feb. 2022.
    He faces two-inch height and reach disadvantages.
    Wand Fight Team’s Josh Quinlan (5-0) put together a perfect amateur record (6-0) to earn a spot on Contender Series. There, he demolished Logan Urban in 47 seconds, only to see the win overturned because of a failed drug test.
    He’s yet to see the judges as a professional, scoring three knockouts and two submissions.
    I think we all know what to expect from Witt by now — he’s a genuinely solid wrestler and top control artist who disintegrates if you so much as breathe on him too hard. Quinlan’s power is more than sufficient to turn out Witt’s lights, and he’s got the Muay Thai prowess to deliver it accurately.
    Any prolonged exchange on the feet will end with Witt unconscious.
    Witt’s potential saving grace is that Quinlan doesn’t fight well off the back foot, meaning the former has a shot if he can establish his takedowns early and keep Quinlan from settling into a groove. Between Quinlan’s movement, cardio and ability to get off of his back, though, he’ll have plenty of time to work his striking and stop Witt in his tracks.
    Prediction: Quinlan via first round knockout




    120 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Lupita Godinez

    After a 3-5 skid, Angela Hill (13-12) battled her way into contention with three consecutive victories, two of them via stoppage. She now sits at 1-5 in her last six, though three of those defeats came by split decision.
    She’s ended five professional fights via (technical) knockout.
    Former Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) champion, Lupita Godinez (8-2), got off to a slow UFC start, sandwiching an armbar finish of Silvana Gomez Juarez between decision losses to Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina. She’s since battled her way into contention with dominant victories over Loma Lookboonmee and Ariane Carnelossi.
    She gives up 3.5 inches of reach to Hill.
    I genuinely feel for Hill. That’s because on my scorecards she beat Claudia Gadelha, Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Amanda Lemos; however, she’s officially 1-5 instead of 4-2. She’s so much better than her record suggests and I do hope she’s remembered as a genuine contender.
    Unfortunately, I just do not like her chances here. Even acknowledging that Godinez isn’t immediately a contender for crushing Carnelossi’s historically poor ground game, she’s a sufficiently powerful wrestler to neutralize Hill the way Virna Jandiroba did in “Overkill’s” most recent effort. While “Loopy” is prone to some bizarre decision-making in the cage, her bread and butter looks potent enough to earn her my confidence regardless. In the end, she smothers Hill for 30-27s across the board.
    Prediction: Godinez via unanimous decision
    Related
    Up Next! ‘Vera Vs Cruz’ In San Diego!

    265 lbs.: Martin Buday vs. Lukasz Brzeski

    Heading into Contender Series, Martin Buday (10-1) had won seven straight since a 2017 loss to future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner, Juan Espino, and he kept the momentum going by stopping Lorenzo Hood with knees. His UFC debut was a little shakier, as he was forced to settle for a technical decision against Chris Barnett after landing an illegal strike.
    He stands one inch taller than “The Bull,” but gives up an inch of reach.
    Lukasz Brzeski (8-1-1) entered Contender Series on the heels of a two-year layoff and a six-fight unbeaten streak, which featured a decision over UFC veteran Ednaldo Oliveira. He wound up overpowering Dylan Potter to secure a UFC contract, only to see that victory overturned because of a failed drug test.
    All but one of his professional wins have come inside the distance, five of them by form of knockout.
    Outside of the ranked Heavyweights, this is among the worst match ups Brzeski could have gotten for his UFC debut. “The Bull’s” style revolves around punching his way inside and mauling opponents from the clinch and top position, but Buday excels on the inside and will likely be at least 30 pounds bigger than Brzeski on fight night. He’s not a man Brzeski can bully, and Brzeski’s limited cardio means things will only get worse for him as the fight progresses.
    Brzeski just lacks the gas tank or technical acumen to overcome the strength difference. While he could do some early work with his flurries, expect Buday to slowly grind the life out of him for a late finish.
    Prediction: Buday via third round technical knockout
    Related
    UFC Paris Loses Fight Via Toilet Accident

    155 lbs.: Gabriel Benitez vs. Charlie Ontiveros

    Gabriel Benitez (22-11) — who began his UFC career 5-2 — now finds himself with just one win in his last five fights. “Moggly” was last seen suffering a wild comeback knockout loss to David Onama in his first bout since a ground-and-pound stoppage loss to BIlly Quarantillo in July 2021.
    His 18 professional stoppage wins include 10 via submission.
    Charlie Ontiveros’ (11-8) UFC debut saw him move up to Middleweight to challenge Kevin Holland on short notice, resulting in a slam knockout loss midway through the first. He dropped all the way down to 155 for his sophomore effort, in which he dropped Steve Garcia twice, but ultimately succumbed to ground-and-pound.
    He’ll enjoy six inches of height and five inches of reach on Benitez.
    At time of writing, Benitez is anywhere from a -345 to a -440 favorite, and I’m not sure I agree. Ontiveros’ power and penchant for bizarre strikes look like a real tripping hazard for a fighter who has been, with all due respect, something of a choke artist of late. It would be far from shocking to see Benitez once again run headlong into something nasty for yet another stoppage loss.
    Still, the rest of Ontiveros’ game is so underdeveloped that it’s hard to pick him against anyone but the absolute dregs of the division. Benitez is still plenty skilled, if nothing else, and odds are Ontiveros’ kill-or-be-kill style gets him knocked out or choked out in the first few minutes.
    Prediction: Benitez via first round submission

  3. #3
    Brandt Moat
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    I have a few I'm liking. That could be a problem! Quinlan ITD doesn't seem worth it. I didn't look to hard. I found -190 ITD for Josh. Can get him @ -280 to win. Unless Betrivers has a better price, ITD I will put him in a parlay. I can't see Vera losing to a much respected Legend of the sport Cruz. I was very lucky to win betting on Cruz last time he got in the octagon. I feel this could be his last fight. After fighting Periera, Silva will feel like he is in there with a statue. Silva will get busy in this spot. Should be an easy night for him. Love this match up. Looks like a 3 Leg parlay with (Quinlan,Silva,Vera) @+150 for a unit. My upsets are Nam and Landwehr. Nam has to make something happen. He has not been active and getting old. Landwehr has a chance to close distance in this and making it an ugly fight. "IF" he doesn't get scorched coming in! Very small sprinkle on those 2 in a parlay for entertainment. Not much room to make any money this card. Be careful! GL

  4. #4
    GunShard
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    Vera has an age advantage by 5 years or more and reach advantage over Cruz. Though I always bet on Cruz since his fighting style is makes his opponents hard to hit him since he's always moving his feet.

  5. #5
    Brandt Moat
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    I'm with ya Gun. But, he was getn pieced up last fight. Barely survived the onslaught. He is a tricky S.O.B. Gambling against him will be a 1st. Just think he has hit the wall. GL

  6. #6
    JIBBBY
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    ^^^Cruz a big dog here. I'm thinking he could win this fight on points myself. Hmmm?

    He's got that stick and move funky point fighting style.

  7. #7
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    This fight is in Cruz's hometown of San Diego, so Cruz by decision might be a play hedged with Vera by KO.....

  8. #8
    Brandt Moat
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    He is as crafty as they come. If he can keep his movement and rhythm he is very difficult to get a bead on. The last fight he had, should be looked at as a tune up. He was coming off yet another physical setback. Might make me regret betting against him.

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  10. #10
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH View Post
    This fight is in Cruz's hometown of San Diego, so Cruz by decision might be a play hedged with Vera by KO.....
    Interesting

  11. #11
    Thrilla
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    UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz odds - BestFightOdds

  12. #12
    JIBBBY
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    Early start time again. GL everyone! Let's win some damn money!

  13. #13
    JC2008
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    Here we go! GL!

  14. #14
    Demonata
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    josh quinlan murdered him!

  15. #15
    JIBBBY
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    Vietnam is a badass. Smiling and grinning the enter fight and sleeping the black dude just like that. Impressive!

  16. #16
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Vietnam is a badass. Smiling and grinning the enter fight and sleeping the black dude just like that. Impressive!
    What a horrible flying knee miss by ode as well lol. He hairballed the flying knee. Then off balance gets knocked out lol

  17. #17
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    What a horrible flying knee miss by ode as well lol. He hairballed the flying knee. Then off balance gets knocked out lol
    Nam by KO paid out!
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  18. #18
    JC2008
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    Ontiveros R1 +800 hedged with Benitez R1 +175 and R2 +550

  19. #19
    Demonata
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    Benitez baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IMpressive.

  20. #20
    JIBBBY
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    Lol flashy dudes are getting dropped on this card. Brutes are biting down on their mouth pieces and just taking them out after weathering the early storms!

    That ball shot did change the tide though.

  21. #21
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    ^ thats right Jibby.

  22. #22
    JIBBBY
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    Chick fights suck. Picked the wrong chick by decision in that fight .

  23. #23
    Demonata
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    nina nunes boring fight then retires. thanks for retiring. calvillo please retire next.

  24. #24
    JIBBBY
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    That was a robbery right there but my money was on Buday.. I feel so lucky to win that bet.. Straight up robbery though. Lol...

  25. #25
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    That was a robbery right there but my money was on Buday.. I feel so lucky to win that bet.. Straight up robbery though. Lol...
    Same jobby. I'm not trusting either of those bums again lol

  26. #26
    JIBBBY
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    Hill better not get robbed here. My money is Hill. Need this!

    I think Hill did enough in rounds 2 and 3..

  27. #27
    Demonata
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    damn huge underdogs keep looking good. Just keep taking underdogs this card.

  28. #28
    Demonata
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    Sounds like you are dominating this card jibby? What's your next pick? You keep winning.

  29. #29
    Demonata
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    I didn't know hill was such a great fighter. Can't believe i thought Loopy would win easily.

  30. #30
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Sounds like you are dominating this card jibby? What's your next pick? You keep winning.
    Doing ok. I bet a few dogs and they are cashing. Long way to go. Up for now.

    How you doing Dem?


    Hill by decision was big for me. Like I said I needed that




    Win - Single
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  31. #31
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Doing ok. I bet a few dogs and they are cashing. Long way to go. Up for now.

    How you doing Dem?
    Losing

  32. #32
    Demonata
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    Ok so if I bet on silva in this next fight he will lose. If I bet on meershaert then silva will win. I think I'm cursed this card

  33. #33
    Beantownmatt
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    ya i hit on hill

  34. #34
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Ok so if I bet on silva in this next fight he will lose. If I bet on meershaert then silva will win. I think I'm cursed this card
    I'm on Meershaert straight myself as he's always game. It has a chance I think.. Meershaert can grind, he's just got to avoid getting clipped on the feet. BIG IF THOUGH!!

  35. #35
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beantownmatt View Post
    ya i hit on hill
    Angela is always game in fights, she needed this win. Her take down defense has been improving also.

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