[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 10:00 pm ET
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal
Zac Pauga vs. Mohammad Usman — TUF 30 Finale Heavyweight Final
Brogan Walker vs. Julianna Miller — TUF 30 Finale Flyweight Final
Augusto Sakai vs. Sergey Spivak
Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Sam Alvey vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Erick Gonzalez vs. Terrance McKinney
Bryan Battle vs. Takashi Sato
Nate Landwehr vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Josh Quinlan vs. Jason Witt
Miranda Granger vs. Cory McKenna
Stephanie Egger vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -



170 lbs.: Jason Witt vs. Josh Quinlan

Jason Witt (19-8) scored the biggest win of his career with a “Fight of the Night”-winning decision over Bryan Barberena that upped the former’s UFC record to 2-2. Unfortunately, “The Vanilla Gorilla” got knocked right back under .500 soon after, falling to a lengthy barrage of punches from Philip Rowe in Feb. 2022.
He faces two-inch height and reach disadvantages.
Wand Fight Team’s Josh Quinlan (5-0) put together a perfect amateur record (6-0) to earn a spot on Contender Series. There, he demolished Logan Urban in 47 seconds, only to see the win overturned because of a failed drug test.
He’s yet to see the judges as a professional, scoring three knockouts and two submissions.
I think we all know what to expect from Witt by now — he’s a genuinely solid wrestler and top control artist who disintegrates if you so much as breathe on him too hard. Quinlan’s power is more than sufficient to turn out Witt’s lights, and he’s got the Muay Thai prowess to deliver it accurately.
Indeed, any prolonged exchange on the feet will end with Witt unconscious.
Witt’s potential saving grace is that Quinlan doesn’t fight well off the back foot, meaning the former has a shot if he can establish his takedowns early and keep Quinlan from settling into a groove. Between Quinlan’s movement, cardio and ability to get off of his back, though, he’ll have plenty of time to work his striking and stop Witt in his tracks.
Prediction: Quinlan via first round knockout
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115 lbs.: Cory McKenna vs. Miranda Granger

Cory McKenna (6-2) earned her spot on the big show with a decision over Vanessa Demopoulos on Contender Series, which she followed by controversially edging out Kay Hansen in her debut. Then came a 16-month layoff, which she ended in March 2022 with a loss to Elise Reed.
She gives up four inches of reach and an absolutely wild 9.5 inches of reach.
Miranda Granger (7-2) lived up to her “Danger”nickname in her UFC debut, a one-sided decision over Hannah Goldy that marked her first trip to the judges. Subsequent efforts proved less fruitful, falling victim to an Amanda Lemos rear-naked choke and lost a decision to Ashley Yoder in back-to-back bouts.
She fights for the first time in nearly 21 months.
“Poppins” hasn’t exactly set the world on fire during her Octagon tenure. In fact, she’d be winless (0-2) with proper judging, and she failed to show off any outstanding skills in the process. Luckily for her, Granger is as favorable a match up as they come. We know McKenna can wrestle, if nothing else, and “Danger” proved entirely unable to shut down Yoder’s pedestrian head-and-arm throws. Even if Granger’s height, reach and skill give her the edge on the feet, it’s all for naught if she can’t stop McKenna from backing her to the fence and dumping her to the mat.
Unless Granger has fundamentally reinvented herself during her time away, she’s a step below even a green, undersized McKenna. In the end, McKenna leans on her wrestling to grind out a comfortable win.
Prediction: McKenna via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Stephanie Egger

Mayra Bueno Silva (8-2-1) punched her UFC ticket with a 62-second ninja choke finish of Mayana Souza on Contender Series. “Sheetara” currently sits at 3-2-1 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, most recently out-slugging ** Yanan to a decision victory.
Though both women stand 5’6,” Silva faces a 1.5-inch reach disadvantage.
The Octagon debut of Stephanie Egger (7-2) pitted her against Contender Series graduate, Tracy Cortez, whose wrestling overpowered the Swiss veteran’s judo to earn her a decision win. She now finds herself in the midst of a two-fight finishing streak, including a bonus-winning armbar of Jessica-Rose Clark in Feb. 2022.
She’s knocked out and submitted three foes apiece.
This is one of those fun, volatile match ups where both fighters are well-equipped to exploit the other’s biggest weaknesses. Silva’s considerably more destructive on the feet and will have plenty of opportunities to get in the pocket against a clinch specialist, but is relatively easy to take down and can lose rounds by chasing submissions off her back instead of standing up. Whoever can neutralize the opponent first, whether it be Silva’s striking scaring Egger away from the clinch or vice-versa, will take it.
Self-defeating though she may be, I’m leaning toward “Sheetara.” That’s because Egger’s last two foes willingly walked their way into her wheelhouse and made no efforts to do damage once there, while Silva figures to punish Egger any time they end up at close range. In short, the Brazilian’s power and aggression edge out Egger’s stretches of top control to secure either a mid-round stoppage or competitive decision.
Prediction: Silva via unanimous decision



185 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

It has now been more than four years since the last Sam Alvey (33-17-1) victory, a split decision over Gian Villante in 2018. His current 0-7-1 run includes four stoppage losses, the most recent coming to Brendan Allen in Feb. 2022.
He is the taller man by two inches and sports a 1.5-inch reach advantage.
Poland’s Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-5) rebounded from consecutive submission losses with two straight wins, including a knockout of previously unbeaten Shamil Gamzatov. This set up a clash with Dustin Jacoby, who edged out “Hussar” at UFC 272.
This will be his Middleweight debut.
What’s left to say about Alvey at this point? He’s the same plodding, low-output striker he’s always been, only with far less durability than before. Even his power appears to have left him, notching just one knockout in his past 15 fights, and that was against the notoriously fragile Marcin Prachnio. There was a time when you could reasonably argue that his counter-punching could carry the day against a flat-footed slugger like Oleksiejczuk, but that time’s long past.
The only way Alvey wins this is if Oleksiejczuk flubs the weight cut badly enough to compromise his chin and cardio. Otherwise, “Hussar” bludgeons him into oblivion in the early going.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via first round technical knockout
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170 lbs.: Bryan Battle vs. Takashi Sato

Bryan Battle (7-1) toppled Kemran Lachinov and Andre Petroski en route to TUF 29 Finale, where he choked out teammate and late replacement, Gilbert Urbina, to claim victory. “Pooh Bear” then took on original foe, Tresean Gore, out-working the Team Ortega standout to a unanimous decision win.
His five professional finishes include four via submission.
Takashi Sato (16-5) — a former Pancrase title challenger — showed off his finishing skills with a brutal knockout of Ben Saunders in his UFC debut. He’s 1-3 since, most recently dropping a decision to division standout Gunnar Nelson in London.
He gives up three inches of height and four inches of reach to Battle.
As fun and destructive as Sato is, there’s not a lot going his way in this match up. Beyond Battle’s height and reach, which he knows how to utilize, “Pooh Bear” is by far the more active striker of the two, not to mention durable enough that Sato can’t turn things around with one big shot. Plus, while Battle isn’t a great offensive wrestler, he can at least threaten Sato’s shaky takedown defense and further open up his striking.
The gameplan Battle used to neutralize Gore figures to work a treat here. While I’m not convinced the drop to 170 pounds is a great idea for Battle — who relies heavily on his movement and successfully shut down a very physically strong Middleweight in Petroski — but the clash of styles is sufficiently tilted in his favor to override my concerns. In the end, he out-works Sato for the full 15 minutes.
Prediction: Battle via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Terrance McKinney vs. Erick Gonzalez

Two years after an unsuccessful Contender Series bid against Sean Woodson, Terrance McKinney (12-4) announced his Octagon arrival by stopping Matt Frevola and Fares Ziam in a combined 2:18. He looked poised for another quick finish against Drew Dober, but ultimately succumbed to a crazy comeback knockout (watch it).
All but one of his victories have come in the first round.
Erick Gonzalez (14-6) made his UFC debut on a two-month turnaround, stepping up to face resurgent veteran Jim Miller. It wasn’t quite the Octagon introduction he would have liked, suffering a vicious one-punch knockout seconds into the second round.
“The Ghost Pepper” will enjoy one inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach on “T. Wrecks.”
Outside of Alexandr Romanov’s demolition of Chase Sherman, you’d be hard-pressed to find a recent men’s UFC bout with more lopsided odds than this, and they’re entirely justified. On one side, we’ve got a ludicrously destructive striker with a powerful wrestling game in his back pocket. On the other, we’ve got a man with no striking defense or takedown defense who relies on trying to out-slug opponents.
The math seems clear.
McKinney’s so aggressive that Gonzalez could, hypothetically, catch him cold, but that’s as slim a puncher’s chance as they come. In short, McKinney bombs him out in less than two minutes.
Prediction: McKinney via first round knockout

[JIBBBY]

Few main card write ups -

Heavyweight:Zac Pauga vs. Mohammed Usman

Best Win for Pauga? Markus Perez For Usman? Eduardo Perez
Current Streak: Pauga debuts at 5-0, whereas Usman technically lost his last bout but has won two in a row on TUF
X-Factor: This is low-level Heavyweight MMA
How these two match up: Hopefully, this ends quickly.
Training out of Elevation Fight Team, Pauga has actually spent a majority of his career at 205 pounds, jumping up in weight for his opportunity on TUF. Among the big men, Pauga’s speed was a significant advantage, and he showed a fair bit of craft to his kickboxing. Nigeria’s Usman, meanwhile, will enter this bout as the larger and more experienced man. A Professional Fighters League (PFL) veteran, Usman has finished his wins via a nice mix of strikes and submissions, proving his comfort in all areas.
This very much appears to be a battle of technique vs. strength. Pauga is significantly more refined on his feet, but Usman is the actual Heavyweight, and if he gets on top, it’s going to be a big problem.
Ultimately, there’s more positive about Pauga, who at least showed some slickness in his TUF victories. Usman seems too raw to really implement his strength without getting cracked for trying to close the distance, which is odd to say about the athlete who theoretically is the more experienced professional.
Prediction: Pauga via decision
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---

Women’s Flyweight:Brogan Walker vs. Juliana Miller

Best Win for Walker? Miranda Maverick For Miller? Kaytlin Neil
Current Streak: Walker won her most recent non-TUF fight, whereas Miller lost hers
X-Factor: Miller has very little professional MMA experience
How these two match up: I expect lots of grappling.
Though both women have competed a majority of their careers in Invicta FC, Miller has just three professional fights! Walker, meanwhile, has faced a number of eventual or former UFC fighters, including the aforementioned win over Maverick. The 32-year-old “Bear” has finished a single fight via submission.
10th Planet BJJ’s Miller makes up for her inexperience in the cage with a lot of
jiu-jitsu super fights. She’s also the more dangerous jiu-jitsu threat, having finished three women via tapout, and Miller is the younger athlete by six years.
When two grapplers collide, the better wrestler usually comes out on top. Since we don’t really know who’s going to win the takedown battle, I’ll side with the more refined specialist. Miller is slick and more dangerous on the canvas, which hopefully will land her in top position one way or another.
Prediction: Miller via decision
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Heavyweight:Augusto Sakai vs. Sergei Spivac

Best Win for Sakai? Marcin Tybura For Spivac? Greg Hardy
Current Streak: Sakai has lost three in a row, whereas Spivac won his last bout
X-Factor: How will Spivac perform after a difficult string of losses?
How these two match up: A striker vs. grappler match up between two established UFC veterans? Awesome!
Sakai is in the unusual — and very Heavyweight — position of being a knockout artist who’s not really an elite striker. He’s big, tough, and hits hard, but Sakai’s last three losses have involved getting smoked by more skilled kickboxers that aren’t afraid of his striking. Spivac is a bit more of a wild card. The 27-year-old “Polar Bear” is still a developing fighter, and his striking has definitely improved since his UFC debut. He’s much more comfortable as a grappler, however, which can be a problem if his takedown game doesn’t get rolling.
This is the type of match up that Sakai steam rolls opponents. In general, his takedown defense is solid, good enough to at least rebuke the Marcin Tybura and Blagoy Ivanov’s of the world. Spivac’s throws have a unique funk and flair, but on the whole, he seems to fit into that category nicely.
If this is to be a kickboxing match, it’s unlikely to end well for Spivac. His jab is coming along, but Spivac doesn’t yet have the defense to win a three round scrap with someone like Sakai, nor is he all that powerful with his own shots. As a result, Sakai will probably find great success in walking the Moldovan down and putting on the hurt ... so long as these recent losses haven’t taken a toll on his confidence.
Prediction: Sakai via knockout
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Women’s Flyweight:Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Best Win for Lipski? Luana Carolina For Cachoeira? Ji Yeon Kim
Current Streak: Both women won their most recent fight
X-Factor: Cachoeira has perhaps the worst technique I’ve ever seen inside the Octagon
How these two match up: I predict a brawl!
Former KSW champion Lipski has a background in Muay Thai. Unfortunately, she’s yet to really live up to the initial expectations, struggling to build much momentum at 125 lbs. On the whole, her defense just tends to be a bit lacking, particularly on the canvas.
Brazil’s “Zombie Girl” chose an appropriate nickname. Cachoeira is athletic and strong, but she does little more than whip haymakers in the general direction of her opponents. It’s a massive knock on the women’s Flyweight division that she’s somehow won three of her last four. I don’t mean to spoil the prediction before the analysis, but it’s an even bigger indictment of the division that she’s probably going to win here too.
Lipski is the better technical striker by a fair margin, but last time out, Cachoeira demonstrated that raw aggression and athleticism goes a long way against average opposition. What is Lipski going to do if Cachoeira just closes her eyes and swings with elbows? Sure, she’ll probably stick some counters, but “Zombie Girl” is happy to eat them and keep throwing.
That type of chaos is the recipe for unplanned grappling, and Cachoeira’s strength and forward movement likely lands her in top position. If that happens, it might just be game over for Lipski, who’s been pounded out twice before inside the Octagon.
Prediction: Cachoeira via knockout

[Thor4140]

This main event is probably going to be terrible like Santos last two fights. This guy use to be a highlight reel and now he fights a conservative style that bores people to death. After his last two i have no clue why they would give him another shot to main event. I guess he works for cheap like that scab Derrick Lewis.

[Demonata]

Scary card

[209 Life]

Neal vs Luque that's what i'm looking forward to the most.

[hankcream]

Tough card to bet, throwing some dog shit out there
$50 Sato by KO/TKO or DQ +400
$60 Sakai +250
$70 Santos by KO/TKO or DQ +450
$206 parlay McKinney/Olekisjuk/Luque -103

[JIBBBY]

Too many chick fights on this card, the prelims kinda suck. Will spot bet with the dudes. Dec bets with the chicks as always. Probably won't watch most of this card early on. Next..

[JIBBBY]

This is looking like a dog ITD theory betting card outside all the chick fights.

I could see a few of the dogs winning inside the distance on this card at very good odds. Odds are good on those bets. I'm gonna try it.

[Demonata]

I'm going to get destroyed this card.

[JIBBBY]

I'm going to get destroyed with this card.

Not a good attitude going in DEM. Keep it positive. Bet the dogs.

[JC2008]

Lipski fight cancelled. Start time is pushed back a half hr.

[Merlin21]

Lipski fight cancelled. Start time is pushed back a half hr.

Damn ... Had her in a nice parlay, complications due to weight cut

[JIBBBY]

Damn ... Had her in a nice parlay, complications due to weight cut

Gotta almost expect a bad weight cut or something medical to take out a fighter on every card right before fight time now. It's the norm..

[Kermit]

How many fights got cancelled now? 5?

[JIBBBY]

How many fights got cancelled now? 5?

Many of these UFC fighters today are hell bent on making weight in a lower weight class. They starve and tax their bodies to the extremes to cut that weight thinking they will have a strength and size advantage.

Ends up they get sick or can't make the weight anymore especially if they are older fighters.

I don't see the advantage when you are drawn and drained going into fights. Better just to go up a weight division and be as strong as you can and healthy going in even if you are weaker then the bigger guys.

Skills, quickness, cardio and fight planning then needs to kick in. Mental strength as well if you are getting hit in the face and or out muscled and grapple focked early on. Weather that storm!

That's my take anyways with fighters trying desperately to make weight these days in weight divisions they should not be in. It's not worth it.

[Merlin21]

When do prelims start

[Crusherrr]

Very interesting fight. I threw money on Bueno Silva ML. She let go of hold because she heard/felt Egger tap. They review and say she did tap.

[Kermit]

Damn, the girls getting it done.

[Kermit]

OMG, that head kick.

[Demonata]

Battle won the battle!!!

[JIBBBY]

That was a serious lights out head kick. OUCH!! Slept...

[JC2008]

Worst pacing ever. You could take a nap between fights.

[209 Life]

Alvey's gone from UFC after that performance.

[JIBBBY]

Why is Sam Alvey still in the UFC? He needs to retire go home and have a few more kids.

[Kermit]

We won't be seeing Sam anymore.

[JIBBBY]

We won't be seeing Sam anymore.

Thank God... Total can..

[Thrilla]

UFC is braindead if they offer Alvey another contract

[Kermit]

Worst pacing ever. You could take a nap between fights.

Tough with all of these finishes. They're trying their best to make sure the main card starts at 10 pm est.

[JIBBBY]

When is Dana White gonna start scheduling back up fighters and fights with all these recent cancellations? Not that hard to do. I'm sure many UFC fighters would sign up for that if they are guaranteed some money regardless if they fight or not.

[Kermit]

Christ, McKinney is -375 to finish the fight.

[JIBBBY]

Christ, McKinney is -375 to finish the fight.

Crazy, I think there is a small chance he could win by decision at +600.

[Kermit]

Crazy, I think there is a small chance he could win by decision at +600.

I took him to win by KO +125 in a parlay with Spivac ITD +292.

[Kermit]

Threw $10 on Ghost Pepper ITD +825 incase he catches him. That will cover my bet.

[Kermit]

And of course he submits him.