[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Joel Alvarez vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Armen Petrosyan

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Rong Zhu
Josiane Nunes vs. Ramona Pascual
Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam
Hannah Goldy vs. Jinh Yu Frey
Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore
Victor Altamirano vs. Carlos Hernandez

[agendaman]

i like alvarez here.

[Brandt Moat]

Eyeing McKinney. Just looked at the thread with the betting splits. Heavier early action on McKinney. Don't like it as much. Not sold on Fares Ziam. I never bet a Frenchie. I look to bet against them. I am heading to Rivers to get em down this week. Petrosyan is another live dog. Let's go! GL

[JIBBBY]

Prelims -








115 lbs.: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Hannah Goldy

Jinh Yu Frey (11-6) — the former Invicta Atomweight champion — stumbled out of the UFC gate with consecutive losses to Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. She’s since won two straight to match her longest winning streak since 2016.
She stands one inch shorter than Hannah Goldy (6-2), but sports a four-inch reach advantage.
“24K” had her own share of Octagon struggles after a successful Contender Series appearance, dropping consecutive decisions to Miranda Granger and Diana Belbita. She came up big with her back against the wall, however, tapping Emily Whitmire for her first UFC victory in Sept. 2021.
She has scored one knockout and submission apiece as a professional.
Credit where it’s due: I’ve long criticized Frey for her complete lack of urgency in the cage, but she landed more significant strikes against Yoder than she had in her first three UFC bouts combined. That should serve her well against the high-volume attack of Goldy, who would otherwise have a real shot at simply outworking Frey to a decision.
What seals it for Frey, however, is how easily Whitmire took Goldy down in the clinch. Frey’s very difficult to dislodge once she lands on top, and if Goldy gives her those same sorts of opportunities, “24K” will end up stuck underneath her for minutes at a time. In the end, heavier punches and long stretches of ground control should win the day for Frey.
Prediction: Frey via unanimous decision
Related
Is Bobby Green The Lightweight BMF?

135 lbs.: Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez

Inaugural The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Latin America winner, Aalejandro Perez (23-8-1) put together a seven-fight unbeaten streak before dropping consecutive bouts to Cody Stamann and Song Yadong. A two-year layoff followed, which he ended by tapping Johnny Eduardo in Oct. 2021.
He gives up two inches of height and three inches of reach to “Dragon.”
A dominant 4-1 run — marred only by a bogus decision loss to Andre Ewell — came to a dramatic end for Jonathan Martinez (14-4) when Davey Grant caught him with a murderous left hand. Undaunted, he re-entered the win column seven months later by cruising past unbeaten newcomer Zviad Lazishvili.
His nine professional stoppages are split 7/2 between knockouts and submissions.
Durability looks like the deciding factor here. Though Martinez has that loss to Grant dangling over his head, Perez gets hurt more often, and Martinez is also the higher-volume striker of the two. Perez’s ground game doesn’t figure to play a factor, either, as he’s unlikely to break through Martinez’s battle-tested takedown defense.
Between the height, reach, output, power and chin disparities, Perez just doesn’t have a lot going his way in this matchup. He’s exceeded my expectations before, but odds are that Martinez controls a pure stand up battle before ending it in the second.
Prediction: Martinez via second round knockout
Related
Green Massive Betting Underdog Against Makhachev

170 lbs.: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore

Ramiz Brahimaj (9-4) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Max Griffin by choking out Sasha Palatnikov halfway into the first round. This set up a crossroads bout with Court McGee, who overpowered Brahimaj with relentless pressure to hand him his second Octagon defeat.
He steps in for the injured Jonny Parsons on just over one week’s notice.
The gung-ho attitude of Micheal Gillmore (6-4) impressed Dana White on TUF 29, but it didn’t save him from a rapid submission loss to Gilbert Urbina in his late-notice bout. He then squared off with Andre Petroski at the Finale, ultimately succumbing to ground-and-pound in the third round.
Three of his professional wins have come by form of knockout, two of them in the first round.
This is definitely a make-or-break fight for Brahimaj. Losing to tough customers like Griffin and McGee is one thing, but it’s hard to see him bouncing back if he can’t beat someone this tailor-made for him. Gillmore’s issues on the ground are well-documented and his potential standup advantage isn’t anywhere near significant enough to make up for that.
If Brahimaj knuckles down and pursues the takedown early and often, this shouldn’t be particularly difficult. If the short notice and one-sided nature of his recent defeat sap his gas tank, things could get messy. I’ll be an optimist and say we see the former.
Prediction: Brahimaj via first round submission
Related
Mendes: Khabib And Makhachev Would Dominate Oliveira

125 lbs.: Victor Altamirano vs. Carlos Hernandez

Victor Altamirano (10-1) put a 2019 submission loss to Jarred Brooks behind him to win three straight, including a decision over Nate Smith to claim the LFA Flyweight title. Six months later, he narrowly edged out Carlos Candelario on Contender Series to secure a contract.
“El Magnifico” has submitted four professional foes and knocked out one other.
Carlos Hernandez (7-1) won 13 of his 15 amateur bouts before dropping his 2017 professional debut to Gustavo Balart. Nearly five years later, he survived a disastrous first round to defeat Daniel Barez on Contender Series and punch his ticket to the world’s largest fight promotion.
He’ll enjoy a three-inch reach advantage.
Whoever’s in charge of the matchmaking for Octagon newcomers has done a remarkably terrible job of late, but I really like this one. This is a case where each fighter is well-equipped to exploit the other’s weaknesses: Altamirano’s straight punches and sharp counters are a problem for the overly linear Hernandez, while Hernandez has the combination punching and strong top game to give the defensively lax Altamirano plenty of issues.
I’m leaning Hernandez’s way, largely because of his ground skills. While he’s a poor offensive wrestler, Altamirano struggles to stop takedowns even when he’s trying to do so. A peppering of takedowns and ground control should swing things his way in a back-and-forth battle.
Prediction: Hernandez via split decision



155 lbs.: Rongzhu vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

The 10-fight win streak for Rongzhu (18-4) came to an end in his Octagon debut, which saw him out-worked by “Kazula” Vargas over 15 minutes. He returned to form five months later, however, dominating late replacement Brandon Jenkins en route to a last-minute finish.
All but one of his professional wins have come inside the distance, 12 of them via (technical) knockout.
The impressive finish from Ignacio Bahamondes (12-4) on Contender Series didn’t translate to immediate UFC success, dropping a hugely entertaining split decision to John Makdessi in his Octagon debut. Then came a clash with fellow Contender Series alum Roosevelt Roberts, whom “La Jaula” out-struck before flooring with a wheel kick in the last five seconds.
He boasts six inches of height and 4.5 inches of reach over Rongzhu.
I really liked what I saw out of Rongzhu in his second UFC bout. His debut was incredibly disappointing, so it was nice to see him throw volume and adjust his gameplan once he spotted a hole in Jenkins’ game. Still, this looks like Bahamondes’ fight. “La Jaula’s” terrific takedown defense should take Rongzhu’s wrestling out of the equation, and though Rongzhu is the harder puncher, Bahamondes has the edge in striking variety.
Whatever the outcome, these are two very promising young men who deserve further opportunities to grow in the Octagon. It’ll be Bahamondes improving to 2-1, leaning on his dangerous kicks and superior reach to win a long-range striking battle.
Prediction: Bahamondes via unanimous decision
Related
Is Bobby Green The Lightweight BMF?

135 lbs.: Josiane Nunes vs. Ramona Pascual

Josiane Nunes (8-1) — whose only professional loss came against current UFC standout Taila Santos in 2013 — rode a six-fight win streak into her Octagon debut. Though “Josi” had to wait a while after initial foe Zarah Fairn failed her weight cut, she made that debut in style with a vicious knockout of Bea Malecki.
Six of her seven professional wins have come by form of knockout
Hong Kong’s Ramona Pascual (6-2) cut her teeth on the Asian circuit before stopping Guadalupe Guzman in her May 2021 North American debut. She was even more efficient in her first stateside effort, a 60-second knockout of Shamir Peshewa under the Invicta banner.
She replaces Jennifer Gonzalez, herself a late replacement for ** Yanan, on just over a week’s notice.
This might actually turn out to be the most violent fight on the whole show. These women only know how to march forward and try to pulverize people, Nunes with a nuclear left hand and Pascual with a nasty Muay Thai onslaught.
While there’s a lot of uncertainty here, largely due to Pascual’s limited cage time in the last few years, Nunes looks to have the edge. Pascual’s willingness to mix it up inside despite her height plays into the Brazilian’s hands, and Nunes is by far the hardest puncher she’s ever faced. She may not have as many weapons, but the one that she has is enough to do the job.
Prediction: Nunes via first round technical knockout
Related
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155 lbs.: Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam

These two were supposed to fight in Nov. 2021 before one of McKinney’s cornermen caught COVID, and seeing as my thoughts haven’t changed, I might as well use what I already had.
Things went from bad to worse for Terrance McKinney (11-3) when, just one fight after eating a flying knee from Sean Woodson on “Contender Series,” he fell victim to a 57-second triangle choke from Darrick Minner. “T. Wrecks” returned to form with three knockouts in a combined 1:45, then needed just seven seconds to wipe out Matt Frevola in the Octagon on an eight-day turnaround.
All 11 of his stoppage wins have come in the first round, nine of them in less than two minutes.
Fares Ziam (12-3) saw his five-fight win streak come to an end in his UFC debut, a unanimous decision loss to Don Madge. Subsequent efforts proved more fruitful, as he claimed decisions of his own over Jamie Mullarkey and Luigi Vendramini.
“Smile Killer” stands three inches taller than McKinney and sports a one-inch reach advantage.
Despite that incredible finish in his UFC debut, McKinney is still more a twitchy bundle of potential than a completed product. Luckily, Ziam figures to be fairly accommodating. The Frenchman just has zero urgency, landing just over two significant strikes per minute, and determined opponents have managed to bully him into the fence for takedowns on multiple occasions. McKinney’s a stronger wrestler than Ziam’s last three foes and figures to find plenty of success following that blueprint.
There’s a lot that can go wrong, of course. Leaning on his wild stand up could get McKinney sparked, and if his gas tank gives out, Ziam could very easily take over late. Still, I like McKinney to muscle his way inside, drag Ziam to the mat, and dominate for an early finish.
Prediction: McKinney via first round submission

[hankcream]

If Bobby Green had any knockout power I would take a shot on him but I don't think he will be able to do much damage to Makhachev's big block head.

[JIBBBY]

If Bobby Green had any knockout power I would take a shot on him but I don't think he will be able to do much damage to Makhachev's big block head.

Green by decision as usual..

[magpie878]

Green by decision as usual..

Good luck with that

[JIBBBY]

Good luck with that

It's worth a shot at those odds. It's a long shot I know.

Green will have to get on his horse big time in this fight and keep it standing. Point fight at distance if that's possible. Green has experience though and is a true vet now. He'll be a little game maybe.

[JC2008]

It's worth a shot at those odds. It's a long shot I know.

Green will have to get on his horse big time in this fight and keep it standing. Point fight at distance if that's possible. Green has experience though and is a true vet now. He'll be a little game maybe.

Green's a bad man but Islam by sub is most likely. Over 1.5 perhaps? Islam decision pays well... I would be shocked if Islam was not able to take him down. He has great sweeps as well. At the end of the day, Green knows he's getting 2 checks for one camp.

[Thor4140]

If Bobby Green had any knockout power I would take a shot on him but I don't think he will be able to do much damage to Makhachev's big block head.

I feel the same way. Green always keeps his hands low which could be a huge help in this. He can do that with his speed. If he only had that knockout power I wiould be in. What will happen if green gets pulled down an his hand speed gets taxed.

[JIBBBY]

^^If it's a bigger octagon that could favor Green. Small octagon he gets wrecked.

If Green did win by decision or by chance KO that would be a HUGE upset! It probably won't happen though as Green will most likely get grounded and pounded out or sub'd.

Still those odds are tempting on the Green decision prop. I'll sprinkle a little bit on it on the hedge.

[frankieunits2685]

^^If it's a bigger octagon that could favor Green. Small octagon he gets wrecked.

If Green did win by decision or by chance KO that would be a HUGE upset! It probably won't happen though as Green will most likely get grounded and pounded out or sub'd.

Still those odds are tempting on the Green decision prop. I'll sprinkle a little bit on it on the hedge.

This card is at the UFC Apex, so the smaller cage will be in play.

[Thor4140]

This card is at the UFC Apex, so the smaller cage will be in play.

yeah i was going to write the same thing. Sometimes Jibby pulls stuff out of his ass. this could hurt someone who didn't know this

[magpie878]

Sub much more likely than winning by GnP.. but hey, anything is possible.

[JIBBBY]

This card is at the UFC Apex, so the smaller cage will be in play.

That will not play well for Green then. No where to run and hide. He'll get taken down and grinded on quickly.

[Thrilla]

yeah i was going to write the same thing. Sometimes Jibby pulls stuff out of his ass. this could hurt someone who didn't know this

What a disgrace

[JIBBBY]

What a disgrace

Do you think it's possible for you and Thor to leave your political hate for me out of the MMA threads? Let's stick to mma fights and discussions only PLEASE!!

If you don't agree with my Green posts then that's ok. Let's see what happens?

[JIBBBY]

Just for the posting record my bets on the Green fight are as follows - I can't see the fight going either other way then these outcomes.

Outside chance Islam wins by decision also via lay and pray but I highly doubt that. I'll gamble and just try these.

Islam - by sub -165

Green - by decision +1100 on the hedge

[JIBBBY]

What ever happen to HUGO? Miss that guy. He was a MMA sharpie. One of the good guys on this forum also!

Gone now like a fart in the wind on the UFC threads.

[JC2008]

Green by decision at Betregal is +1800. Crazy. Islam sub round 1.

[JIBBBY]

Green by decision at Betregal is +1800. Crazy. Islam sub round 1.

Hey JC, Bovada +1100. .

[JC2008]

What ever happen to HUGO? Miss that guy. He was a MMA sharpie. One of the good guys on this forum also!

Gone now like a fart in the wind on the UFC threads.

Hopefully everything's alright. I'm sure he'll be back soon.

[JC2008]

Hey JC, Bovada +1100. .

Yeah all my other books had nowhere near that line.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah all my other books had nowhere near that line.

My other books have better lines and I'm playing those for very small. Bovada has the worst line on that prop.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hopefully everything's alright. I'm sure he'll be back soon.

All good gents, I appreciate the concern. Just super busy with other things in life right now so I don't have the same amount of time that I had previously used to cap MMA each week.

Hope you guys are all doing well and crushing the bookies.

[JC2008]

All good gents, I appreciate the concern. Just super busy with other things in life right now so I don't have the same amount of time that I had previously used to cap MMA each week.

Hope you guys are all doing well and crushing the bookies.

Great to hear you're doing well! As for crushing the bookies, we're trying lol

[JIBBBY]

Hugo is alive and kicking!!


Let's make that money boys.

[mama whoiscrying]

McKinney first round submission! Wow! Nice call Jibby!

[JIBBBY]

McKinney first round submission! Wow! Nice call Jibby!

I had him ITD not by sub.

Always bet on Black and Asian fade theories playing out well so far tonight. Pinky getting smoked in this fight so far.


Win - Single

• Terrance Mckinney wins inside distance (+160) Terrance Mckinney vs Fares Ziam
  

[UncleChael]

Let's go Bobby Green knock this f***er out

[JIBBBY]

Not sure about that decision? I thought Obama won that on aggression, power and damage..

I lost that bet.. Damn..

[JIBBBY]

That was a blood bath..

[Merlin21]

Unanimous? Lol really?

[JIBBBY]

That was one of the better chick fights I've seen I must admit. Elbow queen.

That scoring was suspect though. I had her though and will take the win but still the judging was a bit suspect again. 2 fights so far on this card the scoring were iffy. It's to be expected now.

[JIBBBY]

I'm thinking Misha by sub or Tuman by KO in this next one. That's how I bet it on the hedge props.