[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker (for middleweight title)
Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa
Derek Brunson vs. Jared Cannonier
Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo
Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Casey O’Neill
Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell
Maxim Grishin vs. William Knight

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Ronnie Lawrence vs. Mana Martinez
Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano
Fabio Cherant vs. Carlos Ulberg
AJ Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Sergey Morozov
Mike Mathetha vs. Jeremiah Wells

[magpie878]

Reading a lot of opinions saying Ulberg ITD.


Also like Lewis and Adesanya.. only because Lewis seems to beat anyone who's not championship level and I don't think Whittaker can beat Izzy, even if he tries wrestling.

(edit: Oh, and Brunson. I've ridden this Brunson at + odds train awhile, and I'm not jumping off... taking him again)

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Whitaker seems to be in a good place mentally. Can he get the job done here?

[MartingaleMikey]

Brunson definitely has the most value.

[SEKTAUR]

Tai +150. Don’t trust black beast as a favorite

[jonal]

Whitaker seems to be in a good place mentally. Can he get the job done here?

No he's spending too much of his time playing video games

[Thrilla]

[Thrilla]

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




135 lbs.: Mana Martinez vs. Ronnie Lawrence

Mana Martinez (9-2) saw a five-fight win streak come to an end on Contender Series thanks to Drako Rodriguez, who caught him in a triangle choke midway through the first round. Two knockouts in a combined 1:32 followed, leading to a successful UFC debut against Guido Cannetti.
All but one of his wins have come by knockout within two rounds.
Ronnie Lawrence (7-1) followed a 6-0 amateur career with a 5-1 professional start. Though the finish wasn’t there on Contender Series, he made up for it by mauling Vince Cachero in his Octagon debut six months later.
“The Heat” is the shorter man by two inches and gives up 1.5 inches of reach.
Before Martinez’s fight with Cannetti, I’d have given him a real shot at winning this, if only because of the ungodly power in his hands. Now, I’m not so sure. That’s because he struggled mightily with the aging, chinny Cannetti’s basic pressure, which pales in comparison to the suffocating onslaught Lawrence can unleash.
That admittedly might not be a fair assessment of his abilities, as Martinez was clearly affected by the loss of his trainer. At his best, he can melt just about anyone at 135 pounds with one touch. Still, Lawrence’s relentless grind doesn’t figure to give him any opportunities to land that deathblow. In the end, “The Heat” dominates with endless takedowns and top control.
Prediction: Lawrence via unanimous decision
Related
Adesanya Unimpressed By New-Look Whittaker

155 lbs.: Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano

Alexander Hernandez (13-4) started his UFC run about as well as he could have possibly asked for, crushing Beneil Dariush in 42 seconds before cruising past Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his sophomore effort. He’s since alternated losses and wins, culminating in an 80-second knockout of Mike Breeden last time out.
“The Great” stands two inches shorter than Renato Moicano (15-4-1) at 5’11.”
A 5-1 UFC start gave way to an 0-2 skid for Moicano, prompting him to jump from 145 pounds to 155. His Lightweight efforts have produced a 2-1 record, a knockout loss to Rafael Fiziev sandwiched between submissions of Damir Hadzovic and Jai Herbert.
He has tapped eight professional foes overall, four of them in the Octagon.
I make an effort to not be reductive in my analysis, but I can’t think of a way to avoid saying “Moicano is better everywhere.” He’s more active and effective on the feet, a more efficient wrestler and submission artist, and has generally beaten and lost to better opposition than Hernandez has. Plus, while his chin has failed him in the past, the same can be said of Hernandez.
Hernandez needs to either blitz his opponents or physically overpower them to get wins. Though the former isn’t out of the question, as seen in Moicano’s trio of first-round knockout losses, it’s likelier that Moicano pieces him up behind the jab and mixes in takedowns for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Moicano via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Stylebender’ Rematches ‘Reaper’ In Houston!

205 lbs.: Carlos Ulberg vs. Fabio Cherant

City Kickboxing’s Carlos Ulberg (3-1) returned from a nearly two-year kickboxing stint to starch Bruno Oliveira on Contender Series and secure a UFC contract. An unsuccessful debut saw him succumb to a comeback knockout form Kennedy Nzechukwu, though both men walked away with post-fight bonuses.
He’ll enjoy three inches of height and reach on Fabio Cherant (7-3).
“Water Buffalo” put an unsuccessful Contender Series appearance behind him to win three straight and claim the LFA Light Heavyweight title in the process. That success hasn’t carried over to the Octagon, where he’s suffered consecutive stoppage losses to Alonzo Menifield and William Knight.
Five of his professional victories have come via submission.
With all due respect to Cherant, there’s a reason he’s Ulberg’s get-well fight. He’s not a strong enough wrestler to put the Aussie on his back and, though a decent boxer in his own right, is thoroughly outclassed on the feet by Ulberg’s versatility and technique. As long as Ulberg’s head is in the right place after that loss and he paces himself properly, there’s no reason to expect anything other than a wipeout.
The jury’s still out on whether the 31-year-old “Black Jag” can round out his game enough to be a real player in the division, but what he’s got is more than enough to carry him past Cherant. In short, he lamps “Water Buffalo” within five minutes.
Prediction: Ulberg via first round knockout
Related
‘Bam Bam’ Got ‘Blind’ Drunk, Took ‘Beast’ Bout

185 lbs.: A.J. Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun

A.J. Dobson (6-0) — who went 5-1 as an amateur ahead of his 2016 professional debut — needed just 35 seconds to smash Contender Series veteran Kailan Hill and secure his own spot on the program. He proceeded to make the most of the opportunity by choking out Hashem Arkhagha in Sept. 2021.
All but one of his professional wins have come by first-round stoppage, four of them inside of two minutes.
Jacob Malkoun (5-1) got thrown to the wolves in his Octagon debut, an 18-second knockout loss to fellow prospect Phil Hawes at UFC 254. His sophomore effort went a bit better, though, dominating Abdul Razak Alhassan for a unanimous decision win.
“Mamba” gives up four inches of height and three inches of reach to Dobson.
I really feel like the Hawes loss is making people overlook Malkoun. The man’s got professional boxing experience and an ADCC-worthy Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. Sure, he got smashed in his debut, but he’s not the kind of guy you pit against a prospect as green as Dobson. While Dobson definitely has enough power to repeat Hawes’ success, Malkoun proved his ability to defuse a dangerous striker in the Alhassan fight.
Malkoun leaned almost exclusively on his wrestling against Alhassan and I expect him to do the same here. So long as he can survive Dobson’s initial berserker blitz, he wears down the newcomer with takedowns and ultimately pounds him out.
Prediction: Malkoun via second round technical knockout
Related
UFC 271 Poster Drops For ‘Adesanya Vs Whittaker 2’

135 lbs.: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Sergey Morozov

Douglas Silva de Andrade (27-4) started his career 22-0, only for losses to division standouts and persistent inactivity to keep him from UFC contention. In 2021, he competed twice in a calendar year for the first time since 2013, falling to Lerone Murphy in February before smashing Gaetano Pirrello in just over two minutes eight months later.
Twenty of his 27 wins have come by knockout.
Sergey Morozov (17-4) claimed M-1 gold with a comeback knockout of Aleksandr Osetrov in 2019, then avenged a loss to Josh Rettinghouse in his inaugural defense to catch the UFC’s eye. He fell short in a clash of prospects with Umar Nurmagomedov, but got back on track by outgrappling Khalid Taha in July 2021.
He’ll have to overcome one inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach.
I’m more confident in Morozov’s chances than I would have been before the Taha fight. The Kazakh has struggled with pressure in the past, but did an excellent job of defusing his aggressive foe with relentless takedowns. That same approach should pay dividends here, as those who try to take Silva de Andrade to the ground have historically succeeded.
While Silva de Andrade unquestionably has the one-shot power to put Morozov to sleep, he won’t get many opportunities to use it against a man who can rack up more than a dozen takedown attempts. So long as Morozov stays on the front foot, he grinds the Brazilian into oblivion.
Prediction: Morozov via unanimous decision
Related
Whittaker Blames ‘Ego’ For First Adesanya Loss

170 lbs.: Jeremiah Wells vs. Mike Mathetha

Jeremiah Wells (9-2-1) failed to claim CES gold thanks to TUF: Brazil veteran Vinicius de Jesus, but won the CFFC title two fights later by choking out Marco Smallman. Assorted misfortunes have held him to just one fight since 2019, which saw him stop Warlley Alves in his UFC debut.
His professional finishes are split 4/3 between knockouts and submissions
Though still a relative neophyte in mixed martial arts (MMA), City Kickboxing’s Mike Mathetha (3-0) racked up more than 50 wins under kickboxing rules. His most recent cage appearance came in Feb. 2020, defeating Dimps Gillies via unanimous decision.
“Blood Diamond” is the taller man by two inches, though he faces a slight reach disadvantage.
Mathetha was originally slated to face Orion Cosce this weekend, and Wells figures to be every bit as tricky a matchup. While Wells is more about zest than craft on the feet, he’s got the grappling chops to ruin Mathetha’s day on the mat. If the “Blood Diamond” who fought Gillies shows up, he’s getting smothered; he’s just too easy to tie up and control on the fence to stand up to a hyper-aggressor like Wells.
I don’t doubt that Mathetha has improved considerably during his two years away, especially in a camp so adept at molding kickboxers into mixed martial artists. There’s only so much weight I can put into hypotheticals, unfortunately. In short, Wells times one of Mathetha’s kicks for a takedown, finds his back, and polishes things off from there.
Prediction: Wells via first round submission



265 lbs.: Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa

Andrei Arlovski’s (32-20) return to the Octagon after seven years away saw him win four straight before hitting a 3-9 (1 NC) slump. He now finds himself on his best run since 2015, however, beating four of his last five and falling only to fast-rising Tom Aspinall.
He gives up three inches of reach to “The Mountain.”
Jared Vanderaa (12-6) — two fights removed from an unsuccessful LFA main event — pounded out Harry Hunsucker to graduate from Contender Series with contract in tow. Stoppage losses to Sergey Spivac and Alexander Romanov followed, though he did squeeze in a “Fight of the Night” decision over Justin Tafa in between.
That win was just his second by decision, knocking out seven and submitting another three.
I genuinely think Vanderaa is better than his UFC record suggests and capable of holding his own on the feet with his much-improved striking. Still, Arlovski’s got this down to a science: if you can’t take him down or knock him out, he’ll drag you into his methodical style of fight and beat you with experience.
That’s not to say Vanderaa can’t necessarily do those things, of course. He’s a very large man who throws a very high number of strikes, and if he does manage to get on top of Arlovski, he’ll Donkey Kong him through the canvas. I’ll split the difference and say Vanderaa gives a good account of himself, but falls just short in a purely stand up affair.
Prediction: Arlovski via split decision
Related
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125 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Casey O’Neill

Two-time The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) hopeful, Roxanne Modafferi (25-19), spent three years and nine fights alternating losses and wins in the Octagon, notably handing Antonina Shevchenko and Maycee Barber their first professional defeats. The streak finally ended in Sept. 2021 when Taila Santos cruised past her for a unanimous decision victory.
She stands one inch taller than “King Casey” at 5’7.”
The Scotland-born Casey O’Neill (8-0) cut her teeth on the Australian circuit before punching her ticket to UFC with a dominant finish in her UAE Warriors debut. She’s amassed three consecutive finishes in the Octagon, most recently pounding out the aforementioned Shevchenko in Oct. 2021.
Four of her seven stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
Without the power of the streak behind her, I just don’t see how Modafferi wins this. O’Neill ostensibly matches or surpasses “The Happy Warrior” in most areas of the game — great striking, much-improved wrestling and a lethal ground game. The only way Modafferi wins this is if she can consistently rack up top control, but considering she’s given up nine takedowns in her last two fights, odds are that any grappling exchanges will be on O’Neill’s turns.
The big question for me is whether Modafferi can last the distance. Even if O’Neill proves unable to submit her, her ground-and-pound can end a fight just as easily. I’ll be an optimist and say Modafferi survives to hear the bell in her farewell fight.
Prediction: O’Neill via unanimous decision
Related
‘Bam Bam’ Got ‘Blind’ Drunk, Took ‘Beast’ Bout

125 lbs.: Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell

Alex Perez (24-6) went from dominating on Contender Series to winning six of his first seven Octagon bouts and taking home two post-fight bonuses along the way. His efforts set up a late-notice title shot against Deiveson Figueiredo, who caught him in a guillotine less than two minutes into the first round.
This marks his first fight in nearly 15 months.
Matt Schnell (15-6) put an 0-2 UFC start behind him to win four straight, including an 83-second triangle choke of Jordan Espinosa that earned him “Performance of the Night.” He’s since dropped two of three, a split decision over Tyson Nam sandwiched between losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Rogerio Bontorin.
Nine of his 11 stoppage wins have come via submission.
For those keeping score, this is the fourth time these two have been booked to fight in the last nine months. Perez pulled out of the first one, the second one got rescheduled, and a trigger-happy commission pulled Schnell from the third one because of an elevated heart rate after weigh-ins.
In all that time, my prediction hasn’t changed. As I’ve said before, Perez has the wrestling edge and enough output on the feet to crack Schnell’s shaky chin. Indeed, the only real shot for “Danger” is to land a submission off of his back, and while Perez’s submission defense has failed him in the past, it’s a far less likely outcome than Perez piecing him up. In the end, Perez racks up leg kicks until Schnell’s stationary enough to eat a finisher.
Prediction: Perez via second round technical knockout
Related
UFC 271 Poster Drops For ‘Adesanya Vs Whittaker 2’

205 lbs.: Maxim Grishin vs. William Knight

Maxim Grishin (31-9-2) started his mixed martial arts (MMA) career 12-6 before putting together an 18-1-2 run, the only loss coming to top prospect Magomed Ankalaev. He currently sits at 1-2 in the Octagon, suffering a Heavyweight defeat to Marcin Tybura and a narrow decision loss to Dustin Jacoby while stopping Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
He’s ended 16 professional fights by knockout and another six by submission.
Two-time Contender Series winner, William Knight (11-2), upgraded his contract from developmental to UFC by pounding out Cody Brundage in his second appearance. He went on to win three of four in the world’s largest fight promotion, including a narrow decision over Alonzo Menifield just one month ago.
He steps in for the injured Ed Herman on around two weeks’ notice.
On paper, Grishin should win this easily. Despite some improvements, Knight’s standup still consists entirely of hard low kicks and the occasional winging bomb; if Grishin is his usual methodical, technical self, there’s really not much “Knightmare” can do to him. Knight can’t even lean on his genuinely dangerous ground-and-pound, as Grishin’s defensive wrestling is too stout for him to crack.
Knight should have lost a good chunk of his fights “on paper,” to be fair, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him finagle his way to another unexpected victory. Still, expect Grishin to piece him up on the feet for a wide decision.
Prediction: Grishin via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Tai +150. Don’t trust black beast as a favorite

I agree..

[UncleChael]

The same Black Beast that beat Francis Ngannou? In his hometown? #CmonMan

[magpie878]

Tai +150. Don’t trust black beast as a favorite

I agree..

Can either of you tell me the last time he's lost as a favorite, to warrant this fear?

[hankcream]

I put a little early money on Lewis @-185, but not going to add any more. Lewis doesn't handle body shots very well and Tai isn't Chris Daukus, if he blasts a couple of heavy body kicks I'm not sure if Lewis won't turtle up.

[magpie878]

Lewis is no guarantee, sure... and he's quit. He's also beaten almost everyone not a champion.

Just pointing out the false narrative.

[JIBBBY]

Lewis can't be trusted. Tai is a big 265 pound dude that can move quickly and hit like a truck.

I'm going with the 28 year old younger fighter whom is on a 4 fight win streak. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tai-Tuivasa-133745

[magpie878]

Tuivasa can win, no doubt. But to back him up with Sakai and Hardy gifs? They both kind of stink. And Hardy nearly KO'd him, to boot.

Wasn't long ago I kept hearing how Daukaus was going to school Lewis.


Anyway, I'm very curious to see how this plays out.

[PaperTrail07]

Lewis is gonna destroy him lol....size alone...IMO he got lucky vs hardy-hardy lot to a rookie mistake.......

Lewis can't be trusted. Tai is a big 265 pound dude that can move quickly and hit like a truck.

I'm going with the 28 year old younger fighter whom is on a 4 fight win streak. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tai-Tuivasa-133745

[PaperTrail07]

Picks so far

Knight 140+$....should edge this one out IMO
Then sadly favs
Ades
Lewis
Moicano

Dobson -118

[PaperTrail07]

Im w ya MAG....I expect that fight to be like the Daukaus fight....

Tuivasa can win, no doubt. But to back him up with Sakai and Hardy gifs? They both kind of stink. And Hardy nearly KO'd him, to boot.

Wasn't long ago I kept hearing how Daukaus was going to school Lewis.


Anyway, I'm very curious to see how this plays out.

[magpie878]

Knight should be ashamed with that weight miss, short notice or not. Now it's a HW bout.

[PaperTrail07]

Not sure how I feel about that one.....took a short notice fight and knew he was going to lose a %....Why even attempt it....IMO he took a fight at half price and opponent should be happy...the real shame is Schnell....opponent is 2 pounds over and he denies the fight ....COME ON--you know damn well if he was -500 they would be fighting...

Knight should be ashamed with that weight miss, short notice or not. Now it's a HW bout.

[JIBBBY]

Beast is old and slow. Hard to back him these days. His punching out put is zero. He's a slow slug. Sure though if Beast connects Tia goes down. Big if though?

[JIBBBY]

Knight should be ashamed with that weight miss, short notice or not. Now it's a HW bout.

Always bet on black in this fight. Regardless of the weight miss. Same goes with the main event, Whittkaer gonna get smoked again.

[Demonata]

Going to be great to watch!!



“That guy is nasty, man. I can’t do that. I don’t know,” Lewis said of Tuivasa. “USADA needs to be knocking at his door all the time, he’s gotta be taking something to help his immune system. That is just nasty… Man, what the hell? Nobody. I wouldn’t like to drink out of nobody’s cup. We’re all fighters so I’m pretty sure everybody’s got musty nuts. It’s all at the same level. I’m not watching all these guy’s diets. I’m clean, so I’m probably the cleanest fighter they could drink it from, really. It’ll be warm, you remember. [Like a] latte.”

[JIBBBY]

^^ Drinking beer out of some fans shoe is nasty. Gotta agree with the Beast on this one.

[Demonata]

^^ Drinking beer out of some fans shoe is nasty. Gotta agree with the Beast on this one.

Doesn't alcohol kill the germs?

[JIBBBY]

Doesn't alcohol kill the germs?

Maybe if it was Tequila and not a watered down Miller light beer. ..

[Brandt Moat]

I find it hard to bet on Lazy Lewis. If it is all out brawl, Lewis has slow hands. He gets stretched. If it is a more technical stand up. Lewis will find an opening on the easily hit Tuivasa. Lewis has shown up tired and has laid around a few to many times. Maybe the kid drags him into deep water and puts his lights out late. Make him work early and take him late. Stay out of danger. That's a good recipe Tuivasa.

[Brandt Moat]

I also like Ulberg on an early stoppage. 1st rd. or 2 is at -130 @Rivers Pittsburgh. In the main I can't see much of an edge. I'm putting $50 on each to win by Sub. Izz (+2000) Whit (+1600).

[Demonata]

I hope everyone hits there bets tomorrow.

[GunShard]

Underdogs have a high chance of winning in the Heavyweight division.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I have a feeling that Whittaker gives a much better showing tonight than the first fight.

[frankieunits2685]

Fight Day

[Demonata]

So pumped to watch the fights!!!! Drinking nos energy drink and going to the movies to see moonfall right now beforehand!!!

[hankcream]

Taking a flyer on Izzy’s boy
.5 unit Black Diamond rd1 +500