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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland (February 05, 2022)
ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
Nick Maximov vs. Punahele Soriano
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris
Sam Alvey vs. Phil Hawes
Bryan Battle vs. Tresean Gore
Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson
ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
John Castaneda vs. Miles Johns
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Chidi Njokuani
Jason Witt vs. Philip Rowe
Alexis Davis vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Jailton Almeida vs. Danilo Marques
Malcolm Gordon vs. Denys Bondar
Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 02-05-22 at 12:35 PM.
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This post was nominated 1
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People who nominated: Thrilla
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UFC rolling out a lot of weak cards recently.
yep.e.g sam alvey last won in 2018.
Last week's Bellator card was much better than this. Suit yourselves for skipping that. I had a blast watching it and making a proft.
Prelim write ups MMA MANIA.
135 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Alexis Davis (20-11) made a smooth transition from Invicta to UFC, racking up six wins in her first seven Octagon appearances. She now finds herself in the midst of a 1-4 slump, though she did manage a decent-sized upset of Sabina Mazo along the way.
“Ally-Gator” stands an inch shorter than Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-1), but will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage.
After a 1-1 run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 and a subsequent split decision loss in her Octagon debut, Stoliarenko fought her way back to the big show with four straight finishes on the regional circuit and a successful bid for the Invicta Bantamweight championship. She’s yet to find her first Octagon victory, however, suffering consecutive losses to Yana Kunitskaya and Julia Avila.
She boasts eight wins via first-round armbar.
Credit to Stoliarenko: I thought Avila would demolish her, but I actually had her up going into the third round. That said, I don’t like her chances here. Davis is far too sharp on the ground to get caught in one of Stoliarenko’s quick-kill finishes and her high-volume, fundamentally sound Muay Thai looks a fair bit more effective than Stoliarenko’s own stand up.
While Stoliarenko is likely the bigger of the two and has grit for days, Davis’ struggles against high-level competition belie her impressive technical base. Stoliarenko doesn’t hit hard enough to exploit Davis’ poor striking defense, doesn’t wrestle well enough to put her on her back, and doesn’t offer anywhere near as much output. In the end, Davis out-works her over 15 minutes.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision
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205 lbs.: Jailton Almeida vs. Danilo Marques
Jailton Almeida (14-2) rode an eight-fight win streak into Contender Series, where he squared off with unbeaten Russian standout Nasrudin Nasrudinov. Despite entering as the underdog, “Malhadinho” used surprisingly dominant wrestling to set up a second-round submission and secure a UFC contract.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, nine of them via submission.
Though he came up short in his one and only LFA main event, Danilo Marques (11-3) started his UFC career strong with dominant wins over Khadis Ibragimov and Mike Rodriguez. He looked poised to do the same to Kennedy Nzechukwu, but faded down the stretch on his way to a third round technical knockout loss.
He is the taller of the two by three inches.
I need to see more of Almeida’s striking before labeling him a contender in the making, but he won’t need it here. Marques’ gameplan begins and ends with trying to get it to the ground, where Almeida looks to hold a clear edge. Grinding out the likes of Ibragimov and Rodriguez is much less impressive than Almeida’s success against Nasrudinov; Almeida’s wrestling and submission skills are both a step above Marques, leaving the latter desperately short on avenues of victory.
My only real concern is Almeida’s unproven cardio, but seeing as Marques’ failed him despite a slow-paced fight, it’s not nearly enough to overshadow everything going the newcomer’s way. In short, Almeida finds Marques’ neck sometime around the second round.
Prediction: Almeida via second-round submission
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170 lbs.: Jason Witt vs. Philip Rowe
Jason Witt (19-7) worked his way into the world’s largest fight promotion by winning nine of 10, four of them via stoppage. “The Vanilla Gorilla” currently sits at 2-2 in the Octagon, including a “Fight of the Night” majority decision over Bryan Barberena in July 2021.
He gives up five inches of height and a whopping 10.5 inches of reach to “The Fresh Prince.”
Philip Rowe (8-3) — who hadn’t tasted defeat since starting his professional career 0-2 — beat down the favored Leon Shahbazyan to earn a contract on Contender Series. Though he fell just short against Gabe Green in his promotion debut, his sophomore effort saw him maul the favored Orion Cosce late in the second round.
He has knocked out and submitted four professional foes apiece.
This is one of those fun fights where each man has the skill set to exploit the other’s biggest weakness. Witt is a sufficiently capable wrestler and top control artist to punish Rowe’s overconfidence in his ground game and tendency to back himself to the fence, but Rowe’s gas tank and willingness to trade heat pose a major threat to Witt’s fragile chin.
While it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Witt grind Rowe out, it just feels like Rowe will clip him eventually, especially since “The Fresh Prince” is durable enough to withstand the blows that dropped Barberena. Rowe bounces back from a rough first round to bury Witt with a flurry.
Prediction: Rowe via second-round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Malcolm Gordon vs. Denys Bondar
Malcolm Gordon (13-5) got tossed right into UFC’s deep end, facing and falling to standouts Amir Albazi and Sumudaerji in his first two Octagon appearances. He came up big with his back against the wall, however, outlasting Francisco Figueiredo in July 2021.
His professional finishes are split 6/4 between submissions and knockouts.
Denys Bondar (16-3) put a two-fight skid behind him to win 10 straight, racking up nine fights in 2018-2019 alone. Then came a nearly 18-month layoff, as he withdrew from three previously planned UFC debuts.
“Psycho” has ended all 16 of his victories inside the distance.
Even acknowledging that Bondar’s best work came against suboptimal competition, he’s rightly favored here. Gordon’s nonexistent takedown defense ostensibly makes him easy pickings for Bondar, a relentless grinder with a deep gas tank and a deceptively smooth top game. While he’s definitely the more technical of the two on the feet, his inability to keep it there against even a totally gassed Figueiredo bodes ill for his chances.
Gordon’s best chance lies in either tapping Bondar off of his back or playing keep-away for all 15 minutes, neither of which strikes me as particularly feasible. So long as Bondar’s conditioning holds up after his time away, he beats down Gordon from the top for either a wide decision or late rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Bondar via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Miles Johns vs. John Castaneda
Miles Johns (12-1) followed his successful Contender Series appearance with a decision win in his UFC debut, only to suffer a knockout loss to Mario Bautista one fight later. He’s since scored a pair of knockout wins, most recently flattening Anderson dos Santos in Aug. 2021.
He stands one inch taller than “Sexi Mexi,” but gives up three inches of reach.
After choking out Marcelo Rojo in the Combate Jaula to snap a two-fight losing streak, John Castaneda (18-5) stepped up on short notice to face Nathaniel Wood, who out-worked him en route to a unanimous decision. Then came Eddie Wineland, whom Castaneda knocked out in the waning seconds of the first round.
That win marked his seventh (technical) knockout win and his 13th professional finish overall.
Passivity and some questionable decision-making often make Johns’ fights harder than they have to be, and this is definitely a match up that could get away from him. If he sets the pace and stays active behind his stabbing jab, he wins, but he can’t sit back and do just enough to stay ahead as he’s done in prior efforts. Castaneda’s too effective on the front foot for Johns to stay in second gear.
Between that jab and Johns’ superior wrestling, though, he’s got enough tools for me to overlook his penchant for self-sabotage. Solid boxing and the occasional takedown seal the deal for “Chapo.”
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano
“Mean” Hakeem Dawodu (12-2-1) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Danny Henry by winning five straight, including a bonus-winning knockout of Yoshinori Horie. This set up a clash with top prospect Movsar Evloev, who used suffocating wrestling to snap Dawodu’s streak despite a late surge from the Canadian.
He’s ended seven professional fights via knockout.
Mike Trizano (9-1) cruised through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27 as Stipe Miocic’s first Lightweight pick, ultimately defeating Joe Giannetti in the tournament finals. He currently sits a 3-1 in the Octagon, a run that last saw him upset Ludovit Klein after a two-year layoff.
He’ll enjoy a three-inch height advantage and face a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.
I’ll admit that I’ve got rose-tinted glasses when it comes to Dawodu. His pre-UFC efforts were enormously impressive, and while that Henry loss seems to have sapped a lot of his venom, he’s still capable of some eye-catching feats of violence. With that disclaimer out of the way, I can now safely declare that he’ll win this comfortably.
Without the threat of takedowns to neutralize Dawodu’s Muay Thai, Trizano’s out-gunned on the feet. Straightforward pressure isn’t sufficient to overcome the gap in versatility and striking power. In the end, Dawodu pieces him up for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Dawodu via unanimous decision
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185 lbs.: Chidi Njokuani vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Chidi Njokuani (20-7) started his Bellator career undefeated (4-0), but a series of scale fails and a 1-3 skid marked the end of his run in the promotion. He bounced back with a knockout win in an LFA main event, then stopped Mario Sousa on Contender Series to punch his ticket to the Octagon.
He sports two inches of height and six inches of reach on “Powerbar.”
Former TKO champion Marc Andre-Barriault (13-4) struggled out of the UFC gate, dropping his first three bouts and losing a knockout win over Oskar Piechota to a failed drug test. Undaunted, he returned to form with solid wins over Abu Azaitar and Dalcha Lungiambula.
All nine of his professional stoppages have come by knockout.
In terms of odds, this is the closest fight on the card at time of writing. Njokuani has a massive technical striking edge over the one-note Barriault, but “Powerbar’s” durability and relentlessness could pay dividends against a man in Njokuani who’s been out-muscled by true Middleweights in the past. It boils down to whether Njokuani can keep Barriault honest; if Barriault can get inside and wear him down against the fence, he has a real chance of snowballing.
Still, Njokuani’s just too sharp for me to pick against him. Tough as Barriault is, the guy got touched up by Abu Azaitar in the early going. In short, Njokuani’s front kicks and counters neuter Barriault’s pressure and allow him to cruise to victory.
Prediction: Njokuani via unanimous decision
This is not a very stacked card at all. Oh well. It's the UFC and MMA. Will bet and watch.
Rakhmonov is a good looking prospect. He fights with determination and seems to have some above average anger inside. Have no clue on the guy he is fighting. If anybody has had a look at him, some info on him would be nice.
Betting all dogs to win inside the distance should be profitable.
Yeah, I'm high on Rakhmonov as well based on what I've seen of him.Originally Posted by Brandt Moat
Rakhmonov is a good looking prospect. He fights with determination and seems to have some above average anger inside. Have no clue on the guy he is fighting. If anybody has had a look at him, some info on him would be nice.
I like using that theory on certain cards. GL.
Bondar Rakhmonov Stoliarenko Alvey? over 1.5 Davis Stoliarenko Parlay with some college Basketball. What are you all looking at?
I'm just going to watch these fights.
I think Strickland is gonna smoke the Joker. I may go BIG on Sean Strickland.
Only play I made was Denys Bondar IITD -105
1-0 already from first fight. Dog ITD!
Wow crazy that his arm got messed up! What a freak injury.
Yep, your post came to mind after that first fight. Nasty elbow break or dislocate..
Always bet on black looking good this card!
I had Rowe by KO +150 but thought my bet was toast after the 1st round as I thought he was gonna get wrestle focked the entire fight.
Clip that jaw and things turn around in a hurry!
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Yeah man. His arms are so dang long!I had Rowe by KO +150 but thought my bet was toast after the 1st round as I thought he was gonna get wrestle focked the entire fight.
Clip that jaw and things turn around in a hurry!
I'm trying Marques ITD +450 in this next one.. I'll roll the dice at those odds.
That didn't work out oh well. Grabbed that wrist and that was game over. Full mount and blast away. Too bad. Bad positions can make fights go one way only on the ground.
You ended up betting on Witt now
Jibby bet on the guy with the darker skin always
I keep watching the fake news media and it's always about race and color. I then try to fight the power and be color blind.Jibby bet on the guy with the darker skin always
Always bet on black was the call in the last 2 fights for sure Dem!!
You should have been around during last week's Bellator card. Man o man it was so good. Your loss, not my problem.
Not always dump Thrilla,You ended up betting on Witt now
I've bet fight cards ITD on props equally at +odds and won money when it was over and done. I didn't do that with this event but it's not a dumb betting theory if you pick your spots with certain events.
Always skip the chick fights and fly weight bouts on cards though with that ITD theory helps as those fights typically go the distance....
I got away from the Bellator cards of late. Just to busy and didn't keep up. Glad you won money Thrilla. I didn't even watch that card
Damn man! It's affecting winning! Don't watch that fake news! Yeah I'm not sure if it's racist to bet on black or against black? I think it's racist to do both.I keep watching the fake news media and it's always about race and color. I then try to fight the power and be color blind.
Always bet on black was the call in the last 2 fights for sure Dem!!
First 3 fights. They all black except the Brazil guy but he has darker skin than the dude he beat.
If you pick your spots, right. Why did I respond to a post that says blindly bet every dog. lol
Picked event card spots with the ITD dog theory after capping all event fights. It's not blind betting.
I skip the fly weight chick fights on those cards as they usually go the distance. I've won money doing it so believe what you want Thrilla.
Move on pal. Pavy not stupid. Don't be a dick ass and watch the fights.
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-05-22 at 04:33 PM.
This chick Stoliarenko thinks she is Ronda Rousey. Davis ain't buying it and just pounding on her face on the ground
This chick fight is going distance as usual.
The first fight without a finish.
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