1. #1
    ichiro4thehall
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    Not by that path! - UFC lay system

    Hi Guys

    I've thought for a while it might be fun to try a system where you lay certain method to victory outcomes that you believe have almost no chance of happening.

    Everyone knows that some UFC fighters just cannot win by submission, say, while others have granite chins and will most likely never lose by KO.

    As I have access to Betfair I am going to keep a record here for this thread where I will lay fighters to win by a particular method. It will be real money bets but very small stuff.

    Not by that path system rules
    1. Starting bankroll 100 dollars.
    2. All bets risk half the bankroll.

    Opinions welcome. Each event I will place at least 1 bet as a forum consensus pick.

  2. #2
    ichiro4thehall
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    OK, I know risking half the bankroll per bet is high but these are hopefully sure bets we are picking. Here are some suggestions for bets for the Figueiredo vs Benavidez card.

    Lay Askarov by submission -current exchange price to lay 17.5(-1650)
    Lay Hermanson by ko - current exchange price 10.5(-950)

    These markets have very little liquidity at present and hopefully we could lay at a better price pre-fight but these are examples of the types of bets.

    I also like these

    Lay Lipski to win by KO -950
    Lay Fiziev to win by KO - no price available yet.

    So which fighters could win on Saturday but NOT BY THAT PATH!


  3. #3
    slikec
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    Laying 100 starting bankroll at prices -1000 or higher just seems to much work to make 1 mistake and is over. Good luck.

  4. #4
    ichiro4thehall
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    I hear you but you'd be surprised how quickly the bankroll should increase. Betting -1000 odds each time would take around 14 bets to double the bankroll - and we lose half the bankroll if we lose a bet. Basically if we can go 9-1 every 10 bets we make profit, assuming -1000 lines.

    These are hopefully sure bets. Many times due to match-ups we actually get a better price. Fiziev for example has won most of his fights by KO and he might be a lot beter price than -1000 not to win by KO. Same with Hermanson who has a decnt chunk of KO victories but will never KO Gastelum who has fought the best of the best and never been KOd.

  5. #5
    PaperTrail07
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    Was thinking the same.....
    Quote Originally Posted by slikec View Post
    Laying 100 starting bankroll at prices -1000 or higher just seems to much work to make 1 mistake and is over. Good luck.

  6. #6
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Interesting concept but I personally don't think this is a long term winning strategy.

  7. #7
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Honestly most -1000 faves offer poor EV so this strat isn't something I would recommend.
    175 pts

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  8. #8
    Broxbomber
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    Years ago there was someone that did a thread about “-350 or Higher”. They would only bet -350 favourites or higher and they would rollover every bet. They started with $100 and the goal was to turn it into $1,000. They did it the first time. I think it took 13 or 14 bets. It is basically a parlay of -350 or higher.

    They played it a couple of times again and lost.

  9. #9
    ichiro4thehall
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    Bet 1@ Lay Lipski win by KO @ 8.2. Risking 50 to win 6.80 after commission.

    Lipski never won by KO un UFC and just does not impress me. She has fought fighters a lot worse than tonight's opponent. Think Carolina is value SU as dog, too.

    Bet 2 Lay Hermansson by KO @6.8. Risking 50 to win 8.45
    after commission.

    Gastelum fought the best of the best, most over 5 and never been KOd.

    GL all.

  10. #10
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Best of luck sir

  11. #11
    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Bet 1@ Lay Lipski win by KO @ 8.2. Risking 50 to win 6.80 after commission.

    Lipski never won by KO un UFC and just does not impress me. She has fought fighters a lot worse than tonight's opponent. Think Carolina is value SU as dog, too.

    Bet 2 Lay Hermansson by KO @6.8. Risking 50 to win 8.45
    after commission.

    Gastelum fought the best of the best, most over 5 and never been KOd.

    GL all.
    Damn, too bad you didn't go with submission

  12. #12
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Damn, too bad you didn't go with submission
    No he's laying those prices. His bets were NOT Lipski KO/TKO and NOT Hermansson KO/TKO.

  13. #13
    ichiro4thehall
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    No he's laying those prices. His bets were NOT Lipski KO/TKO and NOT Hermansson KO/TKO.

    Yeah, Hugo is right Hank. I'm not American and non-American betting vocabulary is a bit different, much like the odds. Sorry for the confusion.

    Record 2-0
    Bankroll 115.25
    (Starting bankroll 100)
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  14. #14
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Yeah, Hugo is right Hank. I'm not American and non-American betting vocabulary is a bit different, much like the odds. Sorry for the confusion.

    Record 2-0
    Bankroll 115.25
    (Starting bankroll 100)
    I'm super jealous of some of the foreigners who are able to use betting exchanges. Wish we had those in the US.

  15. #15
    ichiro4thehall
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    I welcome all advice and suggestions guys. This was what I started the thread for. Anyone checked out next Saturday's card yet? It'd be great to have a thread consensus pick each event.

    Not liking much off the bat. Laying Gustafsson and Rua both by sub look appealing but I think the odds will be really crap. I'd expect to have to lay +1500 or more. Great thing about exchanges tho is you can hang a better price out there and hope someone bites.

  16. #16
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Maybe something like NOT Antigulov Decision

  17. #17
    ichiro4thehall
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I'm super jealous of some of the foreigners who are able to use betting exchanges. Wish we had those in the US.
    There are ways for you to do it Hugo. I have to say tho, I've never used a Betfair clone and I know they don't have every market that Betfair does but it's possible that they have UFC. Matchbook has some great prices if you like to bet early, they can be slow to adjust misprices and you can just pick free money from the bot market makers. It's so sweet. Matchbook is possible for you too.

    I'm super surprised 5 dimes still takes your action tbh.
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  18. #18
    ichiro4thehall
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Maybe something like NOT Antigulov Decision
    I've no doubt seen him fight but have no memory of him. That fight worries me a bit and one I'd tend to stay away from. Paul Craig was someone I made decnt money on by betting his opponent and betting him by sub as that was his sole path to victory early in his career.

    His stand up has improved tons now tho and Antigulov has been KOd his last 2 outings. Antigulov have gas tank issues? Why do you think he can't win a decision?

    The goes the distance prop appeals to me from a contrarian angle if the price is good - which it should be since they have 1 decision combined between them. Could be one of those where they respect each others ground games so much it stays standing, and neither a huge KO threat on the feet. A bit like Covington Usman. Reckon +300 might be possible.

  19. #19
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    I've no doubt seen him fight but have no memory of him. That fight worries me a bit and one I'd tend to stay away from. Paul Craig was someone I made decnt money on by betting his opponent and betting him by sub as that was his sole path to victory early in his career.

    His stand up has improved tons now tho and Antigulov has been KOd his last 2 outings. Antigulov have gas tank issues? Why do you think he can't win a decision?

    The goes the distance prop appeals to me from a contrarian angle if the price is good - which it should be since they have 1 decision combined between them. Could be one of those where they respect each others ground games so much it stays standing, and neither a huge KO threat on the feet. A bit like Covington Usman. Reckon +300 might be possible.
    Major gastank issues. Worth looking into. Highly doubt it goes distance.

  20. #20
    ichiro4thehall
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    Bet 3

    Mike Grundy not by KO

    Risking 57.68 to win 6.07 (-950)

    Should have a 4th bet tonight if I can get matched.

  21. #21
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Maybe something like NOT Antigulov Decision
    NOT Craig Decision > NOT Antigulov Decision

  22. #22
    ichiro4thehall
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    Lucky I've not been matched yet. Have money waiting to be layed on Not Antigulov by decision! Was going to be the forum consensus pick!

    You not think Craig has a good path to decision victory if this stays on the feet just with jabs and kicks at range?

  23. #23
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Lucky I've not been matched yet. Have money waiting to be layed on Not Antigulov by decision! Was going to be the forum consensus pick!

    You not think Craig has a good path to decision victory if this stays on the feet just with jabs and kicks at range?
    Nah I think if Craig wins he finishes. Wouldn't be impossible for Antigulov to lay and pray Craig like Shogun did for R2/R3. Hadn't re-watched that fight when I suggested NOT Antigulov Decision.

  24. #24
    ichiro4thehall
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    OK, if I can get matched Not Craig by decision will be the forum consensus pick!
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  25. #25
    ichiro4thehall
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    Record 3-0
    Bankroll 121.32

    Bet 4


    Forum Consensus Pick-Thanks Hugo

    Not Craig by decision (-820) very poor pruce but couldn't get matched for better
    Risking 60.66 to win 7.4

  26. #26
    ichiro4thehall
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    Thanks Hugo - Forum consensus pick won!! Craig is a really unusual fighter, very good to bet method of victory bets with!

    Record 4-0

    Bankroll 125.72


    Hoping to get Not Rua by submission matched but not hopeful.
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  27. #27
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Nice one! Craig a finisher but not a roundwinner. Got it done by finish here.

  28. #28
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Thanks Hugo - Forum consensus pick won!! Craig is a really unusual fighter, very good to bet method of victory bets with!

    Record 4-0

    Bankroll 125.72


    Hoping to get Not Rua by submission matched but not hopeful.
    It’s a good thing you didn’t

  29. #29
    ichiro4thehall
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    It’s a good thing you didn’t
    Read it again man.

  30. #30
    ichiro4thehall
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    Bet 5

    Not Rua by submission (-2000) Risking 62.85 to win 3.14


    Every cent counts!!!

  31. #31
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Read it again man.
    You said “hoping” you get and I was hoping you didn’t get to bet it

  32. #32
    ichiro4thehall
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    You said “hoping” you get and I was hoping you didn’t get to bet it
    I was hoping to bet Not Rua by submission. You posted shortly after Werdum won by submission. I assumed you mixed them up or misread.

  33. #33
    ichiro4thehall
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    Record 5-0

    Bankroll 128.86


    Your speed doesn't matter, forward is forward!

    What's your thoughts for bets next week. Not a great card I feel but only glimpsed at it. Like Not Herman by sub. Herman actually has double digit sub wins but all were 8 years ago or more so hopefully get a nice price. Not sure why Meerschaert is moving up to LHW, this a one off for him?

  34. #34
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Not by that path system rules
    1. Starting bankroll 100 dollars.
    2. All bets risk half the bankroll.
    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Record 5-0
    Bankroll 128.86

    Risking 50% of $128.86 = $64.43.

    It might be better to consistently wager a finite sum. Like say $50.

    To reduce the risk of losses potentially growing at a faster rate than gains.

    Aside from that, good luck. Hope you do better than me.

  35. #35
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by ichiro4thehall View Post
    Record 5-0

    Bankroll 128.86


    Your speed doesn't matter, forward is forward!

    What's your thoughts for bets next week. Not a great card I feel but only glimpsed at it. Like Not Herman by sub. Herman actually has double digit sub wins but all were 8 years ago or more so hopefully get a nice price. Not sure why Meerschaert is moving up to LHW, this a one off for him?
    Meerschaert has 8 career submission losses and like you pointed out Herman has a slight majority of his career wins by Sub (13/25). Might be worth considering a different play depending on price of course.

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