UFC 108 - Revenge of the Stanky Leg

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  • Bread
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-16-08
    • 23726

    #1
    UFC 108 - Revenge of the Stanky Leg
    Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


    Two weeks is entirely too long to wait for MMA action when you left off the last events with one of your most profitable evenings ever. On Saturday, UFC 108 finally rolls around. Can Bread continue his winning streak into the low teens? I don’t see why not. Let’s ride!

    Rashad Evans -210
    Thiago Silva +175

    Quickly, what do evans (18-1-1) and Silva (14-1-0) have in common besides striking good looks? That’s right, both men were sent to Lala Land by Lyoto Machida. That doesn’t take anything from either of them, as Machida was on a different level back then. Both of these guys are superb fighters and deserve this headliner. Unfortunately for Silva, it will probably be his last headliner for awhile, as good money (my money) will be backing “Suga” Rashad.

    This could’ve been one of the UFC’s most anticipated fights of all time between Evans and Rampage Jackson. The comical rivals jawed at each other nonstop on the most recent season of TUF, only to see Rampage run off to Hollywood to play Mr. T. It’s a shame, but with all of the injuries and head cases in this game, we learn to deal with these types of things. Thiago Silva is a mighty fine backup plan.

    As already mentioned, both men were put to sleep in devastating fashion by Lyoto Machida. Silva has since returned to his winning ways with a first round KO of Keith Jardine. This will be Evans’ first bout since Machida sent him to the mat via “stanky leg” (thanks to Rampage for that gem.) Evans will prove to be too quick, too powerful, and should the fight go to the ground, too good of a wrestler for Silva to handle. Evans should be able to add Thiago to his list of brutal victories over other stars Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin.


    Rashad will recover from the “Stanky Leg”





    Dustin Hazelett -125
    Paul Daley +105

    Paul Daley (22-8-2) burst onto the UFC scene as a late replacement for an injured Mike Swick to face Martin Kampmann back in September. As a sizable dog, he was able to batter Kampmann for a first round TKO victory. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as 18 of Daley’s 22 victories have ended early due to his striking. He is a bit of a beast.

    Hazelett (14-4-0) is a submission specialist, with the majority of his wins coming via armbar or chokes. I just don’t think this fight is going to go well for him. I’m looking for Daley to issue a similar pummeling that Kampmann experienced for a quick profit.

    A couple of more reasons why Daly will win – He lists his favorite strinking technique as “KO, TKO, KTFO!” That’s good stuff right there. Oh, and his nickname is Semtex. I don’t know why, but it sounds like something you would call a killer robot. The UFC British invasion will be fully represented by Daly on Saturday night.

    Martin Kampmann -255
    Jacob Volkmann +195

    Kampmann (15-3-0) has UFC losses to Nate Marquardt and Daley. There’s no shame in that game as both of those guys are the real deal. He’s made a name for himself by defeating notable fighters like Carlos Condit, Jorge Rivera, Drew McFedries and Thales Leites. Still, I’m not impressed with what he’s shown me.

    Does that mean that I’m going for the upset here? Absolutely not. Jacob Volkmann (9-1-0) has little-to-no chance and will probably be handed his UFC walking papers after he drops to 0-2 in the big leagues.

    Kampmann is a guy that they seemed to be grooming to become a top contender. Volkmann is nothing more than a stepping stone to get him closer to that goal before he was derailed by Daly.

    Cole Miller -160
    Dan Lauzon +130

    Dan Lauzon (12-2-0) would love to make it a family affair when he faces Cole Miller (15-4-0). His older brother, Joe, was able to defeat Miller back during The Ultimate Fighter Season 5. Can he do it? Well gee Mr. Hand, I don’t know!

    Miller is a difficult guy to figure out. He has lost to Jeremy Stephens and most recently, Efrain Escudero, so you think he has trouble with guys who pack a wallop. But then he has taken out Jorge Gurgel and Leonard Garcia, both of whom possess some power. I don’t know what to make of this lanky goofball.

    Dan Lauzon is back in the UFC, and one thing you can be sure of is that the judges will not be necessary. None of his fights have ever gone to decision. His 12 victories are split right down the middle with 6 submissions and 6 knockouts. Admittedly, I don’t know a whole lot about him, but if I can find an underdog against Cole Miller, I’m usually going to jump on them. Just stay away from him once he starts swinging those long legs around and you should be fine.


    Sorry Cole Miller, no


  • illmatick
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-05-09
    • 5451

    #2
    Martin Kampmann is our guy, I have a small play on him at -170 along with some monster two fight parlays in the -240 range
    Comment
    • Bread
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-16-08
      • 23726

      #3
      Kampmann should have little trouble in this fight.
      Comment
      • RobbReport
        SBR MVP
        • 09-22-09
        • 2042

        #4
        i also like Semtex, I think submissions can be easier to avoid than power shots and hopefully i'm right.
        Comment
        • illmatick
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 01-05-09
          • 5451

          #5
          hard fight to pick , Hazelett's striking is a little underrated imo, his length advantage was giving josh koscheck some serious problems early on in their fight, I could easily see hazelett being able to pull guard on semtex, too many what ifs in this fight, small lean towards hazelett but I will be rooting for semtex, gl bread
          Comment
          • 5050
            SBR High Roller
            • 10-23-09
            • 108

            #6
            Kampmann has the most value in this fight card
            Comment
            • flyingillini
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 41219

              #7
              Looking forward to this card. Bread, I will be at the UFC feb 6th in Vegas.. Will have an extra couple tix..
              המוסד‎
              המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
              Comment
              • illmatick
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-05-09
                • 5451

                #8
                Volkmann's sub's are actually pretty dangerous but the way that guy faded against paul thiago was unreal to me, probably should have submitted thiago in that fight, I'm sure Kampman will be able to keep this one on the feet
                Comment
                • The HOFF
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-02-08
                  • 4847

                  #9
                  Originally posted by illmatick
                  Hazelett's striking is a little underrated imo, his length advantage was giving josh koscheck some serious problems early on in their fight
                  Yes. I believe Hazelett has very under-rated striking. And I remember being surprised when he was giving Koscheck all he could handle.
                  Comment
                  • RobbReport
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-22-09
                    • 2042

                    #10
                    yes, i like Hazelett, he's good all around but he shouldn't want to stand and box with Daley for very long. I think the advantage Daley has going in, is knowing how dangerous Dustin is from the top and bottom. If he can stay off his back(most important) and keep his head close to Dustin's chest and stays busy if he's on top ala GSP he could ground and pound him out.


                    This is tough to cap because Daley has to avoid the takedowns to fight his fight and if he elects to take Hazelett down he has to avoid a busy, dangerous, savvy BJJ expert. if he can channel GSP's strategy and pace and control where it goes he can win this.
                    Comment
                    • squallsquall
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 05-24-09
                      • 273

                      #11
                      Why does Volkmann have little-to-no chance vs Kampmann? I wouldn't say he embarassed himself vs Paulo Thiago...

                      Regarding Hazelett - Daley, if Daley's any smart he'll just refuse to fight on the ground (as long as it's his choice, of course). That will seriously lower Hazelett chances. That being said, I'm still unsure of this fight and probably won't bet it.
                      Comment
                      • Bread
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 03-16-08
                        • 23726

                        #12
                        Volkmann has little-to-no-chance because he is going to lose in the 1st round. Take it to the bank Squally!



                        Illini...if anything, I'll be in Vegas in March..won't be able to swing Feb as well, altho that sounds like a blast! How much do your tickets sell for?
                        Comment
                        • TJMAXX
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 05-22-09
                          • 19

                          #13
                          $$$
                          Comment
                          • flyingillini
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 41219

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Bread
                            Volkmann has little-to-no-chance because he is going to lose in the 1st round. Take it to the bank Squally!



                            Illini...if anything, I'll be in Vegas in March..won't be able to swing Feb as well, altho that sounds like a blast! How much do your tickets sell for?
                            Face value, there is 4 of us going but I bought 6 tickets. They are the $300.00 tickets. I know I will have no trouble getting rid of them just thought I would let you know. We got a suite at the Venetian. Should be a blast!
                            המוסד‎
                            המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                            Comment
                            • Bread
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-16-08
                              • 23726

                              #15
                              Should definitely be a blast. No doubt.
                              Comment
                              • squallsquall
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 05-24-09
                                • 273

                                #16
                                Well Bread, I'm against you in the Daley - Hazelett fight now Let's see a sick sub now, Hazy...

                                Comment
                                • Eccocide
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-12-09
                                  • 2126

                                  #17
                                  Love the Dan Lauzon play. Daley, not so much
                                  Comment
                                  • Bread
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 03-16-08
                                    • 23726

                                    #18
                                    Let's get Cole Miller out of the ufc tonight. lol.

                                    evans -188 5 units
                                    daley +115 2.5 units
                                    j lauzon -286 2.5 units
                                    ludwig +400 2.5 units

                                    parlay
                                    j lauzon
                                    ludwig
                                    dos santos
                                    oliveiro
                                    5 units to win 57.8 units

                                    parlay
                                    daley
                                    ludwig
                                    kampmann
                                    d lauzon
                                    2.5 units to win 78.4 units

                                    parlay
                                    munoz
                                    evans
                                    5 units to win 4.5 units
                                    Comment
                                    • Bread
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 03-16-08
                                      • 23726

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Bread
                                      Volkmann has little-to-no-chance because he is going to lose in the 1st round. Take it to the bank Squally!


                                      2 out of 3 in write up so far. Let's go Rashad!
                                      Comment
                                      • Robyn
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-05-08
                                        • 9681

                                        #20
                                        Stanky leg. This is my biggest bet ever. I'm not gonna lie, I am scared.
                                        Comment
                                        • Bread
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 03-16-08
                                          • 23726

                                          #21
                                          Comment
                                          • 1st and Ten
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-13-09
                                            • 5131

                                            #22
                                            Nice write-up
                                            Comment
                                            • squallsquall
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 05-24-09
                                              • 273

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Bread


                                              2 out of 3 in write up so far. Let's go Rashad!
                                              Nice ones, Bread! I should listen to you
                                              Comment
                                              • The HOFF
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-02-08
                                                • 4847

                                                #24
                                                Rashad Evans>Thiago Silva

                                                American Fighters>Brazilian Fighters

                                                HOFF & Bread>(Pride>UFC)
                                                Comment
                                                • THE_LOCKSMITH
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-25-08
                                                  • 7237

                                                  #25
                                                  wow Evans made 375K (200K to show 175K to win) compared to other recent LHW Thiago Silva (55K to show)

                                                  Ortiz 250K (to show)
                                                  Griffin 250K (100K to show 150K to win)

                                                  Machida 200K (no win bonus)
                                                  Rua 155K (to show)

                                                  I wonder how much Dan Henderson was aking for, made 250K (100K to show 150K to win) at UFC 100 plus 100K bonus for knockout of the night
                                                  Comment
                                                  • purecarnagge
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-05-07
                                                    • 4843

                                                    #26
                                                    I can't believe that one guy submitted the guy with an inverted triangle... I can't believe the dude couldn't get out of that shit. MMA noob for sure!!!
                                                    Comment
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